Since I’m bored, I took a sneak peak at things for next season by stripping out the seniors from the rosters and see how things look prior to the offseason.
I’ve mentioned this before but the sort is by “talent” which subtracts stamina, work ethic, and durability from the rankings.
School |
Returning |
A |
SPD |
REB |
DE |
BLK |
LP |
PE |
BH |
P |
WE |
ST |
DU |
FT |
TOT |
TALENT |
Johnson State |
9 |
53.8 |
56.4 |
40.2 |
48.8 |
33.3 |
27.9 |
46.2 |
46.8 |
46.6 |
57.8 |
77.9 |
47.1 |
5.7 |
582.8 |
400 |
Castleton State |
9 |
54.2 |
49.6 |
40.9 |
52.8 |
34.6 |
44.9 |
33.9 |
42.4 |
39.9 |
47.3 |
72.7 |
55.4 |
5.3 |
568.6 |
393.1 |
Husson |
10 |
51 |
51 |
45.8 |
45.4 |
31.9 |
38.2 |
38 |
43.4 |
36.7 |
52.6 |
75.3 |
68.8 |
5.2 |
578.1 |
381.4 |
Lasell |
9 |
52.7 |
51.7 |
44.9 |
49.1 |
35.8 |
38.4 |
29.8 |
40.1 |
34.8 |
47.6 |
77.2 |
58 |
4.9 |
560 |
377.2 |
Mount Ida |
11 |
44.6 |
55.6 |
37.2 |
41.1 |
30.2 |
41.5 |
39.2 |
40.9 |
41.3 |
52.9 |
76 |
53 |
5.6 |
553.5 |
371.5 |
Thomas |
9 |
53.4 |
52.3 |
35.7 |
52.8 |
25.2 |
25.9 |
36.2 |
42.4 |
38.7 |
44.2 |
72.1 |
59 |
6.1 |
538 |
362.7 |
UMPI |
7 |
41.6 |
43 |
40.3 |
47.1 |
33.6 |
41.9 |
35.9 |
36.1 |
38.6 |
51.6 |
76.4 |
55.7 |
6 |
541.7 |
358 |
MMA |
7 |
41.9 |
46.3 |
35.4 |
41.3 |
22.7 |
34.6 |
38.6 |
42.7 |
37.3 |
57.1 |
77.6 |
59.7 |
6.3 |
535.1 |
340.7 |
UMF |
7 |
45 |
43.3 |
39 |
45.9 |
28.7 |
36.9 |
26.3 |
35 |
31.4 |
39.3 |
74.9 |
60.3 |
5.3 |
505.9 |
331.4 |
Elms |
8 |
41.6 |
42.4 |
39.3 |
48.3 |
35.8 |
28.4 |
27.9 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
40.9 |
73.5 |
43 |
5.3 |
488.3 |
330.9 |
Salem State |
7 |
49.3 |
40.1 |
37.6 |
45.9 |
27.4 |
35.1 |
28.3 |
29.7 |
33.4 |
52 |
73.3 |
59.9 |
5.6 |
512 |
326.9 |
Becker |
6 |
45.3 |
38.7 |
35.2 |
47.2 |
32.3 |
34.7 |
31.7 |
26.5 |
32.5 |
58 |
75 |
42.2 |
5.8 |
499.2 |
324 |
So taking a quick look at things next season:
Johnson State: Wow. Not as jaw dropping to me as their success was this season; that completely took me by surprise. But I wasn’t expecting a roster this good. I suppose a team that is returning 9 (6 seniors) from an Elite Eight squad should be expected to equal that accomplishment next season but from my vantage point it would seem that unless those players are all maxed out, they should be expected to get to the Final Four if not better. And after typing that last sentence, I took a peak at this season’s development and it looks like maybe only one player (Ernest Scott) might be maxed. Good grief, Justin Travis gained 32 points in perimeter last season! The one weakness seems to be that Johnson State is guard heavy. The overall rebounding number is actually respectable and with the ATH/SPD combo I suspect will be ok. But averaging a low post rating of 28 is going to make it hard to keep teams honest. I’ll be interested to see if that’s just a weakness or an Achilles’ heel for them.
Castleton State: Ho hum. A team that excels across the board. Castleton has made it to the Elite Eight seven times in the past eight seasons. I expect that will be eight out of nine after season 52.
Husson: Not surprising given the quality of the coach, but tianyi7886 has Husson ready to challenge again for the NAC North. If Husson’s players continue to develop, tianyi might have the best team in the NAC by the end of the season. The rebound rating of 46 is very impressive. That passing rating is weak and might mean Husson has trouble breaking the press of Castleton and Lasell.
Lasell: We are four deep and don’t yet have a team from the South showing up. Lasell is listed fourth but they are good enough to win the North. Lasell looks pretty terrific up front, the backcourt looks a bit more spotty although if you click to the roster you’ll see that while the overall perimeter rating is poor, Lasell have players with ratings of 92 and 81 so they will be fine. The passing ratings aren’t terrific so Lasell might have similar problems like Husson. (Or not, neither team has that bad of a rating, it’s just a “weakness” given each roster.)
Mount Ida: Not sure what to make of Ida. I’m surprised to see them “only” fifth. At the same time, if I think about it, I’m not sure I’d expect them at this point to crack the Big Four of the North. For Bob to have a team this young, this high up on the rankings probably indicates that by season’s end this is going to be a very dangerous bunch. Right now, Ida looks to be stronger in the backcourt than the frontcourt. Of course, with a team that young that could easily change as the season progresses. A bit weak on the rebounding front right now but overall a really nice, balanced team. Bob's going to have to blow it in order to now walk away with the South title.
[
GAP: All the teams above are returning 9+ players and I would be disappointed stunned if any of them miss out on the NT. I also think these are the clear top 5 teams in the NAC next season.]
Thomas: Should be an interesting season for my squad if nothing else. The ATH/SPD/DEF matches up with anybody in the NAC. However, nothing else is close to being that impressive and a number of categories look to be real weaknesses. The rebounding number is less than ideal and that might mean that while the defense is good enough to stop the first chance, it might concede a second or third way too often. The block shot rating is embarrassing for a team that runs zone. And, to be honest, I’m pretty amazed that I’ve intentionally recruited a team that has a low post rating below 26. Scoring is really going to be a challenge next season. I have Thomas below the cut line for automatic NT bid, but in reality I’ll be pretty surprised if I miss out. That said, I scheduled a non-conference slate that is challenging enough that if I only go 6-4, I don’t think I’m a complete shoe-in for the NT like the other five are. The fact that Thomas is in a category of its own is more about how good the Big Five are than it is about Thomas.
[
GAP: All the teams below are losing 4+ players and are going to take some beatings in the North Atlantic. For most, making the NT will depend on how successful the non-conference slate is. Some of these teams will make the postseason and I predict at least one makes the NT, I'm just not should who it is.]
UMPI: Looks to be the favorite for the #7 spot, although the backcourt is losing a ton due to graduation. What’s left won’t be a strength, but also should be passable. The frontcourt is still quite good and as long as UMPI takes care of business in the non-conference portion I expect them to be in the NT despite missing out this past season. Oops. Took a look at the non-conference slate. UMPI has some really hard games that I don’t expect them to win. They won’t hurt the RPI but might make getting to magic win #14 all the more difficult. Definitely good enough for the postseason one way or another.
MMA: I said UMPI is favorite for #7 but MMA claiming the spot seems quite possible. MMA has a nice non-conference slate so even if I would at this point predict UMPI to have a better NAC record, I like MMA’s chances to make a return to the NT. Don’t think MMA is going to win a ton of games in the NAC after losing 5 to graduation, but there is enough remaining talent to get to the postseason at minimum.
UMF: Not sure what to make of Coach Floyd’s bunch. I keep looking at the roster and see potential wins and then the games get simmed and the wins just aren’t there to be had. I haven’t bothered mentioning it thus far, but UMF’s poor work ethic might be worth noting. UMF is only returning 7 and they are a bit lazy. So while UMF has a nice ATH/SPD/DEF foundation, I’m not sure how effectively they will be able to utilize it if they can’t develop the IQ and the skills are also slow to develop. I’ve given up making predictions for UMF other than suggesting that Coach Floyd gets himself in trouble yet again with the Farmington administration due to yet another one of his crazy capers.
Elms: The wildcard in the NAC??? I said this before and I’ll probably say it again, but Tyber taking a team as young as Elms was last season into a conference as stacked at the NAC was and coming out with 6 wins was pretty amazing. Losing three seniors, they don’t look much better on paper. But after the coaching job that Tyber pulled off last season, I’m prepared for another mini-miracle. Right now, UMF and Elms look to be almost carbon copies of one another but given that Elms has to go against the NAC North, I’d say that UMF is looking much better in terms of making it to the postseason.
Salem State: Needs a coach first and foremost. The athleticism is awfully impressive for a team this low on the rankings but it might not matter all that much if they can’t hold onto the ball. Salem State essentially looks to have one guard right now; hopefully the other two on the roster have potential that just hasn’t yet been developed. A quick look suggests that *might* be the case. Both Michael Ainsworth and Willie Lakowski had development last season so hopefully it continues. It’s going to be a long season most likely either way, but it will be very rough if Salem State can’t develop another couple of guards.
Becker: Last, and probably least. Loses 6 seniors and returns 1 sophomore and 5 freshman. Winning with a roster that young would be a challenge for anybody. Winning with a roster that young in a conference this good and in a division as good at the North … I’m not seeing it. Hopefully, nz00 can rebuild with a nice recruiting class and reload for a similar three year run to what we witnessed. Taking the C- team to A is quite the accomplishment; hopefully nz00 avoids the return back to C-.