Posted by kcsundevil on 10/11/2017 12:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by plague on 10/11/2017 12:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 10/11/2017 5:27:00 AM (view original):
"Understanding that and using it to your advantage or passing it off as random and doing nothing can be the difference between success and mediocrity."
Can you explain a bit about how you can use this to your advantage?
I see it where A+ prestige coaches who have preferences going against their favor and in my favor will get into battles with me. In the end they have a 40% chance and I have a 60% chance, obviously each situation varies and the percentages varies with it. You give a gambler a 60% chance of winning and he will lose sometimes but over time he will eventually become a millionaire. You give a gambler a 40% chance and he will win sometimes but over time he will become broke. I know if I have a 60% chance I will lose sometimes, but over time I will have the advantage over someone who wins 40% of the time.
There will be examples of coaches losing more EE's than the norm and the percentages going against them, and there will times be times where the percentages go in thier favor. Same goes with winning recruits. Over time the percentages will hit their percentages. If you continue to not understand that the percentages over time will hit their percentages and pass it off as random then your unlikely to ever have the success you desire.
When I hear someone call it random that to me means they don't understand.
Good post. And if you recruits dudes who are #6 #8 and #14 at their position, gambling on them not leaving early, it's pathetic to criticize the casino if you lose that bet.
Yeah I'm basically saying the opposite.
I understand the percentages. I think percentages *should* be adjusted to remove huge swings.
Team A keeps #9, #12, #49 while Team B loses a guy not on board. Those aren't probabilities that should even be possible in my opinion. You could play 1,000 seasons as Team B and still never see that probability balance out.
Also, at least in the way recruiting works now, you can influence the probabilities quite a bit - go for better preferences, use promises, use x% of your budget, etc etc. I'm fine with the way that works (for the most part).