Posted by ozomatli on 9/23/2018 10:57:00 PM (view original):
Last year, 562 was the point cutoff for Round 2. The lowest amount of wins to make it there was 510. I believe the lowest ever is 499.

Presumably the cutoff numbers will be different (lower) since 33.3% advance vice 25%, right?

Not necessarily.

Lowest ever to advance: Area51Man in 2008 with 486 wins. He had a great playoff run though with 2 WS wins, 78 bonus points in total, and actually finished in 23rd.

2008 was also the only other year we've had 72 owners. The Round 2 cutoff that year was 558.

Posted by schwarze on 9/20/2018 9:23:00 PM (view original):
That could've been one of those themes where people drafted too few innings (something like 160M cap, spend no more than 60M on pitching).

I am guessing that was the 140M league from 2008 that did have a DH; I won 51 games in that league, my worst in any WISC league. (70 games behind mildnhazy. That's hard to do.) High cap + DH = formula for pitching fatigue.

More fun facts from that 140M league in 2008: at 51-111, I had ... the fourth-worst record in the league. I was 29 games ahead of the fourth-place team in my division. Two fourth-place teams topped .500 (tridentric with 85 wins and ctorkelson with 84), while a 55-win team was second in its division and 53 games out of first (third and fourth places went to a 25-win team and a 10-win team).

Posted by zlionsfan on 9/26/2018 12:04:00 AM (view original):
More fun facts from that 140M league in 2008: at 51-111, I had ... the fourth-worst record in the league. I was 29 games ahead of the fourth-place team in my division. Two fourth-place teams topped .500 (tridentric with 85 wins and ctorkelson with 84), while a 55-win team was second in its division and 53 games out of first (third and fourth places went to a 25-win team and a 10-win team).

Ahh yes, I'm starting to have the bad flashbacks of that league.

Posted by jetscanes on 9/26/2018 9:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zlionsfan on 9/26/2018 12:04:00 AM (view original):
More fun facts from that 140M league in 2008: at 51-111, I had ... the fourth-worst record in the league. I was 29 games ahead of the fourth-place team in my division. Two fourth-place teams topped .500 (tridentric with 85 wins and ctorkelson with 84), while a 55-win team was second in its division and 53 games out of first (third and fourth places went to a 25-win team and a 10-win team).

Ahh yes, I'm starting to have the bad flashbacks of that league.

I won the WISC that year because of that league. My team won 115 games and won the world series.

121 game update. Two weeks til the playoffs

Pre-Rank	Rank	Owner	Season									Playoff Projections
			65M	90M	100M	110M	130M	255M	Wins	Win%	Last Cycle	Teams	Points
5	1	ozomatli	78	78	65	71	85	76	453	0.624	3-3	5	68
1	2	brianjw	73	68	67	69	76	76	429	0.591	4-2	6	81
33	3	wink0094	75	85	64	64	64	76	428	0.590	6-0	5	68
2	4	discodemo	63	70	69	86	73	63	424	0.584	3-3	2.5	34
7	5	buddhagamer	73	83	74	62	62	69	423	0.583	4-2	4	54
6	6	jbohrman	59	78	73	66	76	69	421	0.580	2-4	4	54
29	7	mpitt76	72	60	72	65	71	78	418	0.576	4-2	4.5	61
10	8	jmissirlis	56	86	66	68	62	77	415	0.572	4-2	4	54
16	9	justinlee_24	71	75	61	71	75	61	414	0.570	4-2	5	68
8	10	mildnhazy	59	74	59	71	81	69	413	0.569	3-3	4	54
9	10	jfranco77	67	71	67	70	68	70	413	0.569	2-4	3	41
3	12	rbow923	59	78	64	65	73	70	409	0.563	5-1	4.5	61
17	13	crystalao	70	73	55	64	68	73	403	0.555	2-4	4	54
11	14	dougpalm	66	61	67	73	66	66	399	0.550	2-4	4	54
21 / 4	14	dippedncrack / schwarze	74	64	50	73	72	66	399	0.550	3-3	3	41
31	16	bothways	70	68	65	60	73	62	398	0.548	4-2	3.5	47
36	17	odalisgagne	63	73	74	71	56	60	397	0.547	4-2	5	68
34	18	ejstockman	58	54	70	77	70	60	389	0.536	1-5	3	41
42	19	cubbies84	66	75	63	71	57	51	383	0.528	5-1	1.5	20
40	20	NebHusker	64	70	58	59	64	66	381	0.525	2-4	4	54
51	20	mick33	54	70	52	73	64	68	381	0.525	4-2	3.5	47
20	22	mdc2276	68	50	58	62	76	64	378	0.521	3-3	2	27
41	22	Jdh34	61	60	59	73	68	57	378	0.521	2-4	2	27
13	24	bighooze	65	58	62	63	64	65	377	0.519	4-2	3	41
23	25	redcped	54	68	62	65	66	61	376	0.518	2-4	2.5	34
45	25	Humdogs	58	47	67	57	73	74	376	0.518	5-1	3	41
12	27	shaybee	56	56	64	77	55	67	375	0.517	2-4	2	27
52	28	jetscanes	67	63	67	64	53	60	374	0.515	5-1	4	54
49	29	thehuseman	64	51	67	59	66	65	372	0.512	4-2	2	27
30	30	ledfoot	64	56	59	62	67	67	375	0.517	3-3	1	14
50	31	toddcommish	61	59	73	51	66	60	370	0.510	4-2	1	14
25	32	newarkwilder	61	64	59	62	55	66	367	0.506	3-3	1	14
37	33	jjgreen14	77	50	60	56	58	69	370	0.510	3-3	2	27
39	34	donaldjtrump	49	66	56	51	66	75	363	0.500	2-4	2.5	34
26	35	tigerrott	59	59	59	61	62	61	361	0.497	4-2	1.83	25
19	36	markeking	71	61	56	60	55	57	360	0.496	3-3	1	14
28	36	magicdreamer	71	61	64	62	68	34	360	0.496	3-3	2	27
24	38	cstrohmier	57	60	60	50	62	68	357	0.492	2-4	1.33	18
18	39	mllama54	67	61	58	47	64	59	356	0.490	5-1	1	14
27	40	Donburgh	59	63	57	49	59	68	355	0.489	3-3	2	27
32	41	frank_drebin	63	55	61	69	41	65	354	0.488	2-4	1	14
60	41	hurst47	56	59	56	60	61	62	354	0.488	2-4	1	14
57	43	thejuice6	60	59	72	56	53	53	353	0.486	3-3	0.5	7
62	44	happyhours	70	59	57	61	45	60	352	0.485	4-2	1	14
15	45	homiealiens	62	56	53	60	57	62	350	0.482	2-4	0	0
22	45	calhoop	57	64	66	57	62	44	350	0.482	3-3	1	14
67	45	npg32433	71	65	56	45	69	45	351	0.483	5-1	3	41
64	48	mars2010	64	64	53	56	62	47	346	0.477	5-1	1.33	18
44	49	Jtpsops	66	61	65	65	29	55	341	0.470	4-2	3	41
48	49	The Taint	51	52	57	55	67	59	341	0.470	1-5	1	14
47	51	sprintracer	56	48	54	60	77	68	363	0.500	3-3	2	27
61	51	thebubbaq	58	66	61	52	56	47	340	0.468	3-3	0.5	7
54	53	sjh0825	35	54	69	60	62	59	339	0.467	1-5	1	14
35	54	beauchamp	66	44	55	63	48	62	338	0.466	3-3	2	27
14	55	Fusion27s	56	50	52	62	57	60	337	0.464	3-3	0	0
56	56	nordawg	55	58	58	55	52	57	335	0.461	1-5	0	0
66	56	Pebo	64	38	67	57	57	52	335	0.461	2-4	1	14
68	56	garmansouth	47	61	60	60	50	57	335	0.461	5-1	0	0
63	59	sionnach99	52	48	62	58	53	61	334	0.460	1-5	0	0
69	60	midknight	52	66	60	50	50	54	332	0.457	2-4	1	14
43	61	Chisock	47	49	59	57	59	60	331	0.456	4-2	0	0
55	61	zlionsfan	61	68	53	62	48	39	331	0.456	3-3	0	0
38	63	kyleb63	57	65	47	50	56	54	329	0.453	0-6	0	0
65	64	loyalcanuck	59	46	69	53	41	56	324	0.446	4-2	1.5	20
58	65	gigrant	59	68	53	47	46	50	323	0.445	4-2	1	14
53	66	trd3	45	48	53	57	59	60	322	0.444	0-6	0	0
46	67	DarthDurron	57	46	51	59	50	56	319	0.439	3-3	0	0
59	68	scottharra	56	62	57	45	58	32	310	0.427	1-5	0	0
70	69	deathdealer	47	52	46	46	58	53	302	0.416	4-2	0	0
72	70	scthallfan	50	36	70	49	40	56	301	0.415	0-6	1	14
71	71	tridentric	35	31	37	51	36	54	244	0.336	2-4	0	0
73	72	spoonfed	43	31	45	39	38	34	230	0.317	3-3	0	0

Despite having a chance to have the most Round 1 wins since the second year of this tournament, there's a very good chance I might only have 4 playoff teams.

We all feel for you :P

disco’s 110M team is almost THREE standard deviations above the mean. Incredible

I added a Projected Total to the Google Sheet. That includes projected playoff bonus points and projected regular season final win total

The projected cutoff for Round 2 is currently 534 points (redcped in 24th place)

Including my highly depressing Mauch to start the day? I guess that's a glimmer of good news ...

Posted by redcped on 9/30/2018 2:49:00 PM (view original):
Including my highly depressing Mauch to start the day? I guess that's a glimmer of good news ...

A 5-1 almost makes up for the Mauch, thankfully. This is going to be a stressful ride to the finish line.

Today's pm2 games mark the end of the 5th 162 game set. Only 27 cycles (9 days) to go before the playoffs. I see two main storylines going on:

1. Plenty of owners (25+) have a shot to nab one of the final 8 or so spots in Round 2. There's a decent amount of bunching up going on, which could mean for some drama and playoff heartbreak. Last year we some some incredible happenings (including the 10th and 11th place regular season finishers missing Round 2 entirely), and I'm hopeful we get some more this year.
2. If I maintain my pace, I have a chance to break a few records. These include the potential to be the first owner ever to have five 100 win teams in the WISC (having 4 has only happened 4 times), most regular season wins since 2005 (currently 606 by tjefferson in 2011) and most total points since 2005 (currently 706 by ArlenWilliam in 2015). For context, I'm sure that achieving any of these will undoubtedly mean that I'll lose all of my LDS's in 3 game sweeps, but it will be nice if it happens.