For what it’s worth Fregoe, the guy signed at Georgetown was RS2 after taking the job. Sometimes there’s not a lot of options and you have to throw crap at the wall. I typically avoid battles, especially when I’m a B type program.

On a separate note, pretty sure there’s not much credit difference between finishing 150 with walk-ons after striking out in recruiting and plugging away with backup options to the bubble in an off year. Until they implement coach firing or nerf some of the meta, setting up your team the way you want and chasing the guys you want is most of the fun. Some of the most fun I’ve had is with a guy at UMKC that was a relatively high recruit and shattered scoring records. Different strokes for different folks.

I like the commentary on economic sim vs basketball sim because it’s fairly true and I agree. It’s funny to me when A++ prestige teams get mad at a B team for going after a nearby guy with good preferences. Do they expect to just get them for free?

My updated stats:

2-Team Battles	Wins	Losses	Win%
>30% Odds	0	2	0.00%
31-40% Odds	1	3	25.00%
41-50% Odds	2	3	40.00%
51-60% Odds	7	3	70.00%
61-70% Odds	10	5	66.67%
71+% Odds	3	4	42.86%

I'm doing really well in the 51-60% range and really poorly in the 71+% range. Everything else is as expected.

It usually doesn't annoy me when a lower prestige takes a shot at one of my targets. The only times it does annoy me is when they have no shot of getting of roll, which happens quite a bit. Makes me have to spend resources that I usually wouldn't have to. But the annoyance mostly stems from me being greedy and the fact that I have to worry about another promise.

Posted by mlitney on 8/10/2023 2:51:00 PM (view original):
It usually doesn't annoy me when a lower prestige takes a shot at one of my targets. The only times it does annoy me is when they have no shot of getting of roll, which happens quite a bit. Makes me have to spend resources that I usually wouldn't have to. But the annoyance mostly stems from me being greedy and the fact that I have to worry about another promise.

When I start to see low prestige schools jumping into illogical battles (e.g. D prestige school battles A+ school for Wants Success recruit with no other preference or distance advantage) my mind goes to collusion or alternate accounts.

But maybe some people just want to waste resources? Or they haven't figured out it's a waste yet.

Posted by manonde01 on 8/10/2023 5:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mlitney on 8/10/2023 2:51:00 PM (view original):
It usually doesn't annoy me when a lower prestige takes a shot at one of my targets. The only times it does annoy me is when they have no shot of getting of roll, which happens quite a bit. Makes me have to spend resources that I usually wouldn't have to. But the annoyance mostly stems from me being greedy and the fact that I have to worry about another promise.

When I start to see low prestige schools jumping into illogical battles (e.g. D prestige school battles A+ school for Wants Success recruit with no other preference or distance advantage) my mind goes to collusion or alternate accounts.

But maybe some people just want to waste resources? Or they haven't figured out it's a waste yet.

Collusion isn't out of the question, and neither is ignorance of course; but also there is a case for taking a shot because higher level teams may not be prioritizing the guy. You generally can't roll with a team 2 full grades above you if they match your effort (unless you have signifiant preference advantages), but if they aren't going to match your effort - if they don't want to, or can't - then you can get in the roll. Annoying those of us with high level teams really shouldn't be their concern.

I just landed a D1 recruit, as a D3 school with B+ prestige, over a D2 school with B+ prestige. The recruit's preference was by end of period 1. I was the only school on him for the longest time. The D2 school shows up the cycle right before D3's can sign D1's. I then pushed all my chips in to see if I can pull it off. I signed him on the very first cycle - winning the roll of the dice with 32% odds to the D2's 68%

lost two guys that were @ 27% to the same school.

If my math is correct, that's about an 8% chance for them to land both.

Posted by Ahoya on 8/31/2023 3:18:00 PM (view original):
lost two guys that were @ 27% to the same school.

If my math is correct, that's about an 8% chance for them to land both.

Was it on the same day? Same cycle?

Just lost a 76-24 roll. I had two openings plus my underachieving center is leaving apparently which is ridiculous based on his performances thus far. So I went hard after a reasonable replacement and, of course, came up short......again! This one is likely the one that pushes me out the door!

I have now lost 7 flips in a row including 3 that were 65% or higher to me.
The recruiting logic has to be fixed or the game isn't worth playing anymore.

There are just too many flips going to lower prestige teams who spend less, offer less and have less of a % chance.......it makes no sense.

Updated after a few more rolls (which haven't gone my way). Out of 45 rolls, I've been a 56% favorite on average, but only winning 51% of them. Still a fairly small sample size, but it does seem like it's more of a coin flip than we might realize.

I consider this a bad beat ....and I didn't even get a dice roll.
This was my D3 Wisconsin Lutheran (A+) team. Lost this recruit to Middlebury.
My effort- 1200 ap's (80 every cycle) 20 HV's, CV, promise 20 minutes, start
Middlebury Vt, (C+)- Only one open scholie, so 2000 recruiting bucks recruiting a guy in Minnesota from Vermont.

I see the Far from Home and Perimeter ... but still stunned to end up only at moderate.

He actually knocked me out of HIGH on the cycle the recruit signed. I assume he may have added 25 promised miniutes ... but still



Christopher Campanella
Eligible
6'4" | 207 lbs. | 2.6 GPA
Rochester Community & Technical College | Rochester, MN
Category:
POSRATING
PG557
Scouting Level 4
2 Years RemainingJuco PlayerGuaranteed StarterGuaranteed MinutesScholarship Offer
This recruit has signed with Middlebury

• Ratings
• Preferences
• Recruit
• Considering
• History
• Note

CATEGORY

RECRUIT PREFERENCE

TEAM ANALYSIS
Playing Time

No Preference

- (20 promised minutes)
Distance

Far From Home

Bad (230 miles)
Success

Wants Success

Good
Play Style

Perimeter Offense

Very Bad
Offense

No Preference

-
Defense

No Preference

-
Conference Strength

Strong Conference

Neutral
Coach Longevity

No Preference

-
Signing Preference

Early

and yes, the recruit WAS in Minnesota

Team +G85+A1:I85+A1+A1:I85	Year	Player	Fav	Dog	Winner	winning team
Coppin St	188	Glenn Miligan	62	38	Underdog	Coppin
Drake	168	Jan Threlkeld	57	43	undergod	Missouri
Wyoming	169	Thomas Mathis	74	26	Underdog	Air Force
Miss V St	134	Jason Morejon	63	37	undergod	Miss V St
Coppin St	189	Shawn Smith	49	30	underdog	Morgan St
Coppin St	189	Jay Barrett	58	42	underdog	Coppin St
Miss V St	135	Jason Morejon	63	37	Underdog	Miss St
Clemson	132	Richard Lebel	74	26	Fav	Indiana
Boise St	129	Douglas Vogel	69	31	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	Tim Ward	75	25	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	JR Nagata	69	31	Fav	Iowa St
Lamar	135	Fred McCullough	76	24	Fav	Lamar
Drake	170	Ahmad Whitehill	71	29	Fav	Drake
Drake	170	Zach Parks	55	23	Fav	Illinois
Drake	170	Roy Jones	48	17	Underdog	ND
Clemson	133	Craig Bryant	51	49	Fav	Vandy
Drake	170	Ruben Mullins	38	12	Fav	Missouri	5 WAY ROLL
Miss V St	135	Daniel Puckett	66	34	Fav	Alcorn st
Miss V St	135	eric Hemphill	72	27	fav	Drake
Coppin St	191	j Cambell	57	23	fav	Pitt	3 Way
Miss Valley St	135	Brandon Randolph	53	47	Undedog	G Tech
Miss Valley St	135	Bryant Wetzstein	74	26	underdog	Tenn Martin
Miss Valley St	135	John Park	59	20	Fav	Aub
Prarie View	134	James Phillips	53	47	Underdog	Florida St
Coppin St	192	Michael Larose	68	32	Underdog	Coppin St
Coppin St	192	Thad Evans	72	28	Underdog	Clev St
Drake	172	William Chilton	53	18	Fav	Hou	3 way
Clemson	134	Bryan Lacy	57	43	Underdog	Clemson
Clemson	134	Michael Williams	51	19	undergod	Clemson	3 way
Prarie View	135	Hults	72	28	underdog	Houston
Miss V State	136	Tyler Smith	55	45	underdog	Ark Pine B
Prarie View	135	Kerry Phillippi	68	32	Fav	Prarie View
Lamar	137	James Mingus	59	41	underdog	PrarieView
Coppin St	193	Elmer Redden	61	39	underdog	wagner
Coppin St	193	Micahel Dillard	54	46	unerdog	Coppin St
West Virginia	137	Mathew Gilchrist	52	48	underdog	West Virginia
Texas SA	173	Roy Samons	57	43	Underdog	Oklahoma
Texas SA	173	John Baehr	48	20	Fav	Oklahoma	3 way
Texas SA	173	James Vaetch	51	49	Fav	New Mexico
Coppin St	193	James Knight	50	20	Fav	Maryland	3 way
Lamar	137	Edward Fecteau	74	26	Fav	Oklahoma St
West Virginia	137	Dennis Dixon	51	20	Underdog	West Virginia
Texas SA	174	Norman Pack	74	26	Fav	Texas SA
Drake	174	Mike Harris	74	26	underdog	Drake
Drake	174	Jack Roth	49	51	Underdog	Drake
Coppin St	193	Earnst Shiffer	52	19	fav	Maryland	3 way
Gonzaga	136	Tony Corp	67	33	fav	AZ St
Bucknell	138	George Dingus	42	19	underdog	Bucknell	19% 3 way
Texas SA	175	Stacy Champion	56	44	fav	Texas SA
West Virginia	138	John Hairston	63	37	Fav	Providence
Drake	175	William Hudson	56	44	underdog	Creghton
Coppin St	195	Don Baltes	59	41	underdog	Columbia
Drake	175	Jeffrey Rush	70	30	underdog	Drake
Boise St	133	William Griffin	52	48	underdog	Idaho
Bucknell	139	Mark Ramsey	69	31	underdog	Bucknell
Texas SA	176	Kurtis Hoover	48	16	Fav	Ok St
Gonzaga	137	Troy Craig	56	44	Fav	AZ St
Virginia Tech	176	James Freeman	42	17	Underdog VT		4 way with last place winning
Drake	176	Jonathan Jackson	75	25	Underdog	Drake
Lamar	139	Todd Davis	62	38	underdog	Texas Tech
Lamar	139	Miquel Hernandez	79	21	underdog	Lamar
Clemson		Willaim Taylot	39	23	Favorite	Vandy
Lehigh	139	Earl Strong	70	30	undergod	Lehigh
Boise St	134	Aurthur Reasor	39	13	underdog	Loyola	4 way won by the last place
Coppin St		Larry Bowen	42	19	Fav	Bucknll	3 way
Lehigh	139	James Nicholson	34	20	Underdog	BC	4 way
Lehigh		allen Cox	32	12	underdog	Clev st	4 way
Virginia Tech		Michael Hord	60	40	Fav	Wake
Clemson	138	Jery Collins	39	25	Fav	Virginia	3 way
Baylor	140	Jerry Pettway	59	41	Underdog	G Tech
Baylor	140	Dustin McEntyre	68	32	FAV	L State
Baylor	140	Michael Larocca	55	45	Fav	Nebraska
Coppin St	198	Ben Thomason	57	43	Underdog	Morgan State
Clemson	138	Chares Perera	62	38	Fav	V Tech
Lehigh	140	George Frias	74	26	underdog	Lehigh
Clemson	138	Gary Arnette	48	23	fav	Clark Atl D2	3-way
Lehigh	140	James Wild	67	33	fav	Rhode Island
Drake	179	James Spade	58	42	Fav	Purdue
Gonzaga	139	Antonio Mills	51	20	underdog	Oregon St	3-way
Bucknell	141	larry Boyle	66	33	Underdod	Bucknell
Baylor	141	Edward Holland	58	42	Underdog	Baylor
Baylor	141	Elbert Williams	43	22	Fav	Baylor	3-way
Baylor	141	Anthony Kelly	40	21	underdog	Texas SM	3way winner was 21%
Drake	179	Owne Doyle	60	40	Fav	Valpo
Bucknell	141	Nhenry Ducete	X	X	und	DII team	percentages
West Virginia	141	Silas Merz	74	26	Fav	West Virgina
Vermont	180	Earl Nau	65	35	underdog	Vermont
Clemson	139	Michael Olson	67	33	underdog	clemsom
Vermont	180	Jon Regnier	74	26	Fav	St Joes
Virginia Tech	181	edward Hudson	62	38	underdog	Virginia Tech
SD St	136	Roy Kriebel	44	18	fav	Stanford	3 way
SD St	136	Felipe Gonzales	50	50	even	SD St
SD St	136	John Smathers	54	46	fav	Ariz St
Sd St	136	George Inman	57	43	Fav	SD St
Bucknell	142	Michael williams	55	19	fav	Bucknelll	3 way
Virginia Tech	181	Abraham Lucero	59	41	underdog	Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech	181	John Lesperance	66	34	fav	Virginia Tech
West Virginia	142	Edwin English	41	25	Fav	West Virginia	3 way
West Virginia	142	Brandon Palombo	31	18	underdog	West Virginia	lowest of the 4 won
Vermont	181	Earl Roberts	55	45	fav	Niagra
West Virginai	142	Raymond Bowes	53	47	underdog	Penn
West Virginia	142	Millard Baker	62	38	Fav	West Virginia
Coppin St	201	Stuart Ford	54	46	fav	Lehigh
Virginia Tech	182	Michael Morrow	55	45	underdog	virginia
SD State	137	Jake Reinhart	43	34	Fav	UC Santa barbara	3 way
Sd State	137	Andrew Harrel	42	25	underdgog	pepperdine	3 way
Sd State	137	Robert Bosely	51	49	fav	Santa Clara
Hawaii	142	Eugenio Mancini	76	24	fav	arkansas
Coppin St	202	Thomas Lytle	76	24	fav	Michigan
Bucknell	143	Chris Bedford	64	36	underdog	Bucknell
Coppin St	202	Lewis Broughton	61	39	Fav	Coppin st
Baylor	143	Joseph Livingston	32	18	Fav	OK St	4 -way
Baylor	143	Sam Slaton	43	15	Fav	Tex AM	3way
West Virginia	143	Lowell Etherton	72	28	Fav	WVU

Not as many rolls lately. Have landed some 5-star guys with little to no challengers. In the next few cycles, I expect to see more additions to this list as I have talked a few more higher-prestige teams recently. I think I have a good mix of rebuilds/ and now a few "decent" squads. I have completely screwed over Coppin St and I am determined to fix that situation again....

We all lose them. The recruits are as hard to understand as humans in recruiting. Have backup options and don't make your entire class reliant on a couple guys on rolls