I GOT SCREWED BY WIS!!! Topic

mrpolo09
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say you flip a coin 10 times. . . .say it lands on heads all 10 times. Improbable, but very possible. You are the type of person that would say "i'd bet $100 it lands on tails next".

its still 50/50

same in HD. if a poor team that shoots 38% on the season, has a great game. Say they're shooting 65% on the game. They're odds do not go down on their next possession. Odds of making a shot are 38%. (not exactly, lots of variables, but you get my point)
1/18/2010 4:51 PM
alvey
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Some of you guys have way to much time on your hands, and seemingly nothing to do. Do you guys have kids or a spouse? Heck...help her with the dishes tonight instead of getting on each other's nerves. Life is just to short to be trying to constantly trying to **** in each other's cornflakes. Carry on.
1/18/2010 5:06 PM
colonels19
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Mr. Polo, I would accept any result under true randomness. And as far as rolling 154 times straight....if you saw things like the MIT blackjack team and some of these other casino "cheat" clubs out there, they basically have these kinds of things down to a science....hold the die the same way throw the same way and bim bam boom, you're rolling for hours...thus they make it more like playing chess (you can play the same way each game and basically win all the time) than shooting a basketball. There are a lot less factors that will affect your dice throw than your basketball shot.
1/18/2010 5:19 PM
arssanguinus
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Colonels. .you are concentrating awfully hard on the trees instead of even making the tiniest effort at seeing the forest.
1/18/2010 5:24 PM
dalter
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colonels, there is no way to compare that lady throwing dice and the MIT blackjack team. The latter really did use math. I do not believe that you can write off the lady throwing dice as a non-random event. And there's lots and lots of other crazy, random events if you're positive the little old lady was crooked, lol.
1/18/2010 5:25 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 1/18/2010colonels, there is no way to compare that lady throwing dice and the MIT blackjack team. The latter really did use math. I do not believe that you can write off the lady throwing dice as a non-random event. And there's lots and lots of other crazy, random events if you're positive the little old lady was crooked, lol.
I wasn't directly comparing them, I was saying if you've seen programs of that ilk...I saw one group of casino cheats, they knew how to hold the dice, do it the same way every single time, throw the same way every single time until their movements almost became robotic. Throwing die when you've perfected that is a lot less random than shooting a basketball, even if you've perfected that...people aren't defending your dice throw.
1/18/2010 5:27 PM
zhawks
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So now you are aruging for more randomness?
1/18/2010 5:29 PM
colonels19
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no, I'm just suggesting that mr. polo's comparison isn't necessarily a good one because I've seen how people can perfect a dice throw and because people aren't playing defense against you throwing dice.
1/18/2010 5:36 PM
arssanguinus
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010no, I'm just suggesting that mr. polo's comparison isn't necessarily a good one because I've seen how people can perfect a dice throw and because people aren't playing defense against you throwing dice.

COlonels. .you are dancing through the raindrops. He made an obviously good point and you are trying to nitpick your way out of having to actually address it.
1/18/2010 5:37 PM
colonels19
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I'm not nitpicking anything
1/18/2010 5:39 PM
arssanguinus
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010I'm not nitpicking anything

Suuuuuure. . . .


1/18/2010 5:40 PM
colonels19
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Lol...ok then

Let's compare the dice throwing to free throws. The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws? Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time. I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you? The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.

On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.
1/18/2010 5:47 PM
mrpolo09
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/18/2010no, I'm just suggesting that mr. polo's comparison isn't necessarily a good one because I've seen how people can perfect a dice throw and because people aren't playing defense against you throwing dice.

casino's spend millions of dollars looking for cheats.

it was this lady's second time EVER playing craps. stop nitpicking.




it doesn't matter how many variables you throw out, there's still a final percentage of occurance. . . if a player has a PER of 57, SPD of 72. if a defender has a DEF rating of 83. His team is running a zone (-3). The chance of the basket going in is 41%.

I'm just making up numbers here. but the point is. . . under the same exact circumstances, the ball has the same exact chance of going in the hoop. Just like there's a 16.7% chance of a seven being rolled every single time, when two dice are thrown.
1/18/2010 5:55 PM
zhawks
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/18/2010
Lol...ok then

Let's compare the dice throwing to free throws. The odds of making a free throw are 50-50....let's say a player makes 90% of his free throws over the course of an entire season...the odds are still 50-50, but isn't it more likely for him to make one or both because of how good he is/has become shooting free throws? Its just like this woman with the dice....let's say before she got to Atlantic City, she's practicing and throwing a 7 or what have you 90% of the time. I'm not sure what the exact probability of throwing a 7 is...5% or so...less?....but if the odds are still 1 out of 20 or what have you isn't she more prone to throw more consecutive 7s because she's practiced throwing 7s or what have you? The odds may be the same, but the likelyhood of her throwing a 7 over Joe Blow is significantly greater.

On top of all of this, he's comparing real life randomness with sim randomness which he admits how real life has more random factors.

Just because there are only two outcomes does not make something a 50-50 probability.
1/18/2010 5:57 PM
zhawks
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Quote: Originally Posted By mrpolo09 on 1/18/2010
it was this lady's second time EVER playing craps. stop nitpicking.



That is all he can do. If it doesn't fit with his argument he throws it out as false info.
1/18/2010 5:57 PM
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