Ridiculous - Page 9 - Hoops Dynasty

Posts: 141 (0)

Hall of Famer

1 329 12 13

Prospect

Exactly. It isn't being a sim-apologist to say that random outcomes have outliers and that 1 game isn't representative of anything.

4/13/2010 1:30 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

I think you're just mincing words now. The fact of the matter is that we have a result here that is visibly off base with what normally happens in the sim, thus it needs further investigation and study on WIS' end. To say this is a normal/regular nuance of the sim I think is incorrect and that's all that really matters here.

The bottom line is this. In my Home Run Derby game, there will be bizarre, wildly varying outcomes from time to time, but I'm 100% ok with it because I know my methods are solid and the truest way that anyone can run any game with any kind of randomness. If I thought WIS' games ran the same way, in the sense that they run the same way they always do except for different random numbers, then I too would be 100% ok with their product and would laud HD as the best CBB game out there. The results simply lead me to believe otherwise.

Here are the things that I think might be leading to these unjustifiable blips every so often....a bad PRNG....extra randomness of some sort...an overly complex sim that can't necessarily run the same way every time due to its complexity...etc.

4/13/2010 1:37 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/13/2010Exactly. It isn't being a sim-apologist to say that random outcomes have outliers and that 1 game isn't representative or anything.

I'm fine with outliers and "off" results, as long as I KNOW that they're being generated from a sim that runs the exact same way, for every single game, just using a separate batch of random numbers. I think this has got lost in the fray.

Thus if 1927 Babe Ruth beat 1959 Coot Veal 100-0 in one contest and in the very next contest Coot Veal won 2-1, I would be completely ok with it because I will have KNOWN that I ran the game the same exact way as I always do, just with a different set of random numbers. I just don't feel like this happens in WIS....and if this is in fact how WIS sims, then why not come out and say it? Not that I'd necessarily believe it, but at least come out and tell me that I'm a know-nothing hack....I mean, wouldn't you do it if I were speaking falsely about your game?

4/13/2010 1:41 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

www.bpisports.com/sscores.htm

Look at results 18 and 43...vastly different, game run the same exact way.

4/13/2010 1:43 PM

dahsdebater

Posts: 10041 (0)

Hall of Famer

284 292 18

Pro

I would like to point out that the main reason WiS staff probably haven't already told you the sim works the way you want it to is that is that they only very rarely actually read the forums. I think they should read them far more often to keep up with what we're saying about their product, but I'm quite certain that they don't.

4/13/2010 2:11 PM

doomey

Posts: 141 (0)

Hall of Famer

1 329 12 13

Prospect

They get support tickets, dahs and I'm fairly certain they DO read the forums, they just don't post.

Colonels, I have come to the decision that you have no clue what you are talking about. Generated the same way? Each possession uses multiple variables mandating multiple outcomes. The laws of probability dicate not only will certain outcomes be more likely, but that OUTLIERS MUST EXIST. Again, if the outliers were closer to the norm, you'd have a case, but you are talking about one game here. Hell you balance that with just that team that won 98 straight conf games and you'd be fine statisticly. Take a prob and stat course.

4/13/2010 4:13 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

Again, if I thought the engine/randomness operated the same way for every game, I wouldn't be saying anything....I mean shouldn't the game have consistency? I have no reason to believe that the game does this currently, given these once in a while bizarre results, and while you accept these because "you've taken a stats course" I don't because I don't believe the engine is playing out the same way for each game WHICH IT SHOULD BE, and I think others would agree on this premise. The game is too complex for its own good, the story of Whatifsports.com.

It shocks me (well I guess not really) that you don't understand how comparing a 98 game win streak to 1 bizarre result is complete apples to oranges...but I'm supposed to listen to you talk about stats and probabilities when you have ZERO common sense....yeah...that works....

Again, for the 860th time, if I thought the engine ran games the same way ALL THE TIME just with a different set of GOOD random values, then I wouldn't be griping, and given these off the wall results that we see from time to time, I really have no reason to believe that this happens.

I'm all for bizarre results, if the way the game is output the same EVERY SINGLE TIME...if its not, then something is wrong with the game, end of story.

4/13/2010 8:07 PM

dalter

Posts: 71 (0)

All Star

25

Prospect

So essentially, the basis of your entire argument is that you have a gut feeling that the sim doesn't run games the same way each night. And this despite your well-documented lack of understanding of HD and the sim engine.

I'm sure I've heard weaker arguments, I just can't think of any at the moment.

Take a look at real life and you see outlier results all the time. And I'm not talking UVA-Chaminade. I'm talking week-in, week-out for the entire college basketball season. And real life only has a fraction of the the number of games that HD does. Do the math on that.

The questions that you need to be asking:

1). Are the results you're talking about simply outliers that are within the realm of relative probability, or are they so ridiculously absurd that they simply shouldn't be happening?

For the most part, I believe it to be the former, although there are occasional results that are too absurd to happen, period. Most of the examples posted in the forum belong in the first group.

2). Do the anomalies we see happen at a frequency that clearly outstrips real life?

This is the question that has confounded me for several years. And really, there's no good way to answer it or measure it. I vacillate back-and-forth, and I'm still not sure.

4/13/2010 8:48 PM

dalter

Posts: 71 (0)

All Star

25

Prospect

As I mentioned in previous posts, the area that really gets me is that we have so many players who grossly underperform (or overperform) over the course of an entire season. That to me clearly indicates that even an entire season's worth of games/shots isn't enough to produce reliable individual results, and that is extremely bothersome.

The reality is that basketball players are (on the whole) very consistent. And the vast majority of players either post comparable or improving stats as their careers progress. (Please don't post the regression of your least favorite real-life player from State U; yes, those players certainly exist but they're the exception, not the rule... and please also don't say to me, "Well, he had a freshman guard next to him and, um ...", I get that there are other factors, I'm talking about on the whole.)

I'm (nearly) immune to the results from one game. Almost anything can happen on a given night. What kills me is bad results over the course of a whole season, and I'm praying that the new sim is strong and agile enough to correct this long-standing flaw.

4/13/2010 8:58 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/13/2010
So essentially, the basis of your entire argument is that you have a gut feeling that the sim doesn't run games the same way each night. And this despite your well-documented lack of understanding of HD and the sim engine. Not entirely...results like the game in question and at least 20 others lead me to a conclusion that something is wrong with the engine. I don't trust WIS, I don't believe in WIS/seble to tell the truth, they're all about damage control. You and many others have tried to explain away these games but often times, I find the explanations to be insufficient to justify the sheer gravity of difference between the games....the 30, 40, 50, 60 point swings.

I'm sure I've heard weaker arguments, I just can't think of any at the moment.

Take a look at real life and you see outlier results all the time. And I'm not talking UVA-Chaminade. I'm talking week-in, week-out for the entire college basketball season. And real life only has a fraction of the the number of games that HD does. Do the math on that. If you use real life to justify everything in this sim, then HD can never be wrong...and I frankly can't argue with someone that thinks that the game is never wrong. You choose to make excuses for every last thing in HD, I don't, that's where we differ. I'm more objective than you are.

The questions that you need to be asking:

1). Are the results you're talking about simply outliers that are within the realm of relative probability, or are they so ridiculously absurd that they simply shouldn't be happening?

For the most part, I believe it to be the former, although there are occasional results that are too absurd to happen, period. Most of the examples posted in the forum belong in the first group.

So why do either happen? Because of normal randomness or everyday nuances of the HD engine....I just don't see it. Again, your OUTLIERS HAPPEN explanation is simply NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

2). Do the anomalies we see happen at a frequency that clearly outstrips real life?

This is the question that has confounded me for several years. And really, there's no good way to answer it or measure it. I vacillate back-and-forth, and I'm still not sure. Throw real life out the door, this game should be less random than real life because of the player ratings and the fact that random numbers decide the outcomes, not actual human beings who are more random than anything in life.

4/13/2010 9:16 PM

colonels19

Posts: 4399 (0)

Hall of Famer

78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11

Prospect

If you use the "its only one game" argument to protect a flawed sim time and time and time again, then you'll never address/find out what's truly wrong with the game. At what point/frequency does "its only one game" not apply anymore? Its an incredibly weak, ****** excuse for a poor sim result, and WIS has used this excuse time and again, and it looks like a lot of its loyal users do as well. My argument isn't hard to understand and follow.

4/13/2010 9:22 PM

doomey

Posts: 141 (0)

Hall of Famer

1 329 12 13

Prospect

Twenty results that YOU question doens't make it a problem. That's 20 out of thousands and if they are all like this one, then it isn't even that much of an outlier.

Saying that some results aren't the travesty you think doesn't mean we are justifying all aborrations, just not the ones you are harping on.

If you "throw real life out" what exactly does the sim aspire to simulate? Some wierd metric that only exists in your mind?

And since you keep failing to understand my correlation of a 96 game win streak, show me one in real life then tell me the statistical probability of that occurring. That is an outlier as well.

4/13/2010 10:12 PM

dahsdebater

Posts: 10041 (0)

Hall of Famer

284 292 18

Pro

Colonels, I think it's a serious stretch to say that the person whose argument focuses on a small subset of the data (and defies logic and mathematics) is the one being more objective.

4/13/2010 10:54 PM

dalter

Posts: 71 (0)

All Star

25

Prospect

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/13/2010
If you use the "its only one game" argument to protect a flawed sim time and time and time again, then you'll never address/find out what's truly wrong with the game. At what point/frequency does "its only one game" not apply anymore? Its an incredibly weak, ****** excuse for a poor sim result, and WIS has used this excuse time and again, and it looks like a lot of its loyal users do as well. My argument isn't hard to understand and follow.

If you'll notice, I've said repeatedly that I do think there are sometimes game results that are so far over-the-top that they shouldn't happen.

However, I've also said that the majority of games that you something think meet this criteria in fact do not. Simply put, you are a very poor judge of this.

4/13/2010 11:58 PM

dalter

Posts: 71 (0)

All Star

25

Prospect

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/13/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/13/2010

So essentially, the basis of your entire argument is that you have a gut feeling that the sim doesn't run games the same way each night. And this despite your well-documented lack of understanding of HD and the sim engine. Not entirely...results like the game in question and at least 20 others lead me to a conclusion that something is wrong with the engine. I don't trust WIS, I don't believe in WIS/seble to tell the truth, they're all about damage control. You and many others have tried to explain away these games but often times, I find the explanations to be insufficient to justify the sheer gravity of difference between the games....the 30, 40, 50, 60 point swings.

I'm sure I've heard weaker arguments, I just can't think of any at the moment.

Take a look at real life and you see outlier results all the time. And I'm not talking UVA-Chaminade. I'm talking week-in, week-out for the entire college basketball season. And real life only has a fraction of the the number of games that HD does. Do the math on that. If you use real life to justify everything in this sim, then HD can never be wrong...and I frankly can't argue with someone that thinks that the game is never wrong. You choose to make excuses for every last thing in HD, I don't, that's where we differ. I'm more objective than you are.

<<This is so funny, it literally makes my sides hurt from laughter. Over the last several years, no one has consistently pushed WIS harder, questioned them more or tried to bring about positive change more than I have. (And unlike you, I don't just ***** repetitively, I actually work for improvement.) So for you to sit here and say I'm not objective or am a WIS apologist is absurd to the point of destroying any tiny shred of credibility you were clinging to. It would be like calling Ralph Nader a pawn of corporate America. It's totally senseless. A wake-up call to check yourself.

And, for the zillionth time, taking a look at real life does not absolve all unexpected results from HD. It simply absolves some that you erroneously consider to be too crazy to happen due to a combination of your lack of understanding of HD and poor critical thinking skills. There are still some results that don't pass the smell test. It's just that you don't have the faintest idea of how to properly administer the smell test.>>

The questions that you need to be asking:

1). Are the results you're talking about simply outliers that are within the realm of relative probability, or are they so ridiculously absurd that they simply shouldn't be happening?

For the most part, I believe it to be the former, although there are occasional results that are too absurd to happen, period. Most of the examples posted in the forum belong in the first group.

So why do either happen? Because of normal randomness or everyday nuances of the HD engine....I just don't see it. Again, your OUTLIERS HAPPEN explanation is simply NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

<<That comment -- "outliers happen is not good enough" -- perfectly demonstrates your complete and total lack of understanding. To fall back on my trusty poker analogy ... you're the guy at the table who goes nuts every time his favored hand loses.

I've got news for you: Favored hands lose. It happens, it's supposed to happen, and it will continue to happen. Outliers are part of sports and they are a part of any game that features an element of randomness to it. If you don't get that, there is a fundamental shortcoming in your logic that is enormous and disturbing in scope. >>

2). Do the anomalies we see happen at a frequency that clearly outstrips real life?

This is the question that has confounded me for several years. And really, there's no good way to answer it or measure it. I vacillate back-and-forth, and I'm still not sure. Throw real life out the door, this game should be less random than real life because of the player ratings and the fact that random numbers decide the outcomes, not actual human beings who are more random than anything in life.

<<You are allowed to have this opinion. However, it is nothing more than a poorly-informed opinion, and not how the game was designed. You keep repeating over and over that there should be markedly less randomness in HD, but that's not how the game is designed, and that would not be at all accurately reflective of how basketball actually works.

As you've been told many times by many people: If you want something that boringly predictable that doesn't even resemble sports, go back to playing a computer game. >>

4/14/2010 12:09 AM

Forums

Ridiculous Topic

Search Criteria