Posted by schwarze on 2/24/2023 12:09:00 PM (view original):
1995-96 Orioles/Marlins (Brown)
League #11, Pick #3: 46-51
I was fortunate to get this draw, as I had actually considered taking this team in the late Top 30 (after two Maddux teams got picked). Of course, the pitching isn't in the same zip code as those Maddux Braves teams, but the defense is above average and the offense is strong. An added bonus is that I can start as many as 5 switch hitters. Note that the other (available) really good team I liked in this league is the 1995-96 Mariners (great offense), which got taken 2 picks later (which is the main reason I didn't select this team in the Top 30). Fun fact that toysboys pointed out: I get to roster both Baltimore Kevin Brown and Florida Kevin Brown as my clone.

Watching/managing this team feel like being a parent of multiple children where most of your kids are doing great... smart, good-looking, got a good job, some are even married w/their own kids. Then there's that one child who just can't do anything right. C- student in high school, dropped out of college, can't hold a job. Still lives at home. Sleeps till noon. Anyway, I was so excited to get this team in the draft. But everything has been a mess. Ranked 8th offensively and 14th pitching - both below expectations. The defense is top 10 (field%) and top 5 (range). They are ranked 19th in win% and 12th in ExpWin%.

Stud pitcher '96 Kevin Brown. He has been pretty underwhelming, currently sitting at 8-7, 4.72 ERA. He started the year 6-2 then completely tanked. The team was fine early in the year, sitting out 13-6. Then a horrendous run started and seemingly never ended. First a 2-11 run, followed by a 4-8 run... After decent above-500 stretch, another L6 hit, then shortly after that a 1-8 run. We're 8-2 in the last 10, so maybe there is still hope. The other starting pitchers have pretty much sucked too (MUssina, Burkett & A.Leiter are a combined 20-27 with ERAs ranging from 5.65 to 7.13). The bullpen has been awful. Blown 11 out of 25 saves. Low-inning stud pitcher Rick Helling (0.76 whip in real life) is sitting at 0-4 with a 8.56 ERA in 13 innings. The offense is ranked 3rd in HRs and one-year-wonder Brady Anderson has been good (.317, .386, .595, 108 RBIs) - also 4th in MVP race. Most of the offense has been as good as can be expected.

Grade: D
I could've selected the '95-96 Mariners/Mets (58-39) team that barracuda3 grabbed 2 picks after me or toysboys' '97-98 Braves/A's (53-44) that went one pick later. But nooooo.... Instead, I got this no-good, uneducated, can't-hold-a-job team that is continually disappointing me. A #3 pick that may not advance to round 3...

I considered this team with my pick in the top 30 (#24?) but I'm glad I went with my trusty wartime Cardinals instead.

1997-98 Angels/Cardinals (McGwire)
League #11, Pick #14: 49-49
I was hoping the Cone/Appier 1993-94 Royals/Mariners team would make it to me here, but they went with pick #10 to gworear. This is a below-average team that has terrible pitching and slightly below-average defense. There just wasn't any teams that really jumped out at me, so I decided that if my team is going to suck, let's have some fun. It's much more fun to read boxscores where I lose 10-7 than where I lose 2-0. I cloned Mark McGwire.

This team was off to a very slow start (5-18 after an L11). Then later, they went on a 14-1 run and miraculously got to 5 games over .500. Just recently, they had a 3-11 stretch before winning their last 3 games to get back to .500. This team is ranked 6th offensively (expected) and 11th in pitching (pleasantly unexpected). They are league average in fielding% and range. They have the 12th best record but the 6th best ExpWin% and have been very unlucky with a 8-14 record in 1-run games.

I know this is the steroid era, but I don't have a single pitcher with a real-life whip of better than 1.14 and most of my staff is 1.19+. My closer, Troy Percival has sim stats of 9/12 in saves with a 1.78 whip and 5.88 ERA. The only chance of winning games is to outscore the opponent enough where the inevitable 3-run 9th inning doesn't cost me the win. Luckily, my cloned McGwire's are doing fairly decently. '98 McGwire (.269, .405, .599, 37 Hrs, 103 RBIs) is 3rd in the MVP race. '97 McGwire (.237, .357, .583, 39 HRs, 90 RBIs) could use to get his average up a bit, but is 3rd in HRs. The bullpen is 16/25 in sav opportunities and my *best* pitcher (Juan Aceved0, 1.14 whip) is 1/4 in saves with a 5.02 ERA.

Grade: B-
Generally speaking, the 14th pick should be a little below .500, so we're doing better than that and the expected record is ever better. That being said, the 23rd pick in this league ('93-94 Indians/Cubs / ybsjports) is sitting at 58-40 with the #1 ranked defensive range. Had I built that roster, I may have taken that team instead (given my love for great range).

1999-00 Red Sox/Brewers (Martinez)
League #12, Pick #3: 49-49
It's really hard to accurately rate a "stars and scrubs" team. All the stats are weighted by IPs and PAs, and based on that, this team has one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but it's really just 431 innings of Pedro and 220 innings of decent relief pitching (Lowe, Garces, King, Beck). Saberhagen & D'Amico have 282 usable innings. So that's 934 solid innings. The remining 500-600 innings are incredibly terrible. Hideo Nomo (1.38 whip#, 4.19 erc#), Jamey Wright (1.45 whip#, 4.27 erc#) and Steve Woodard (1.34 whip#, 4.14 erc#) need to account for roughly 36% of my team's innings. And just to make matters worse, the offense & defense is below average. Why did I take this team again?

I remember agonizing for a long time over this pick. I didn't want them. I kept trying to convince myself to take a different team. I went over every possible trade scenario during the trading period in order to get out of this draft slot. There were other options I liked (listed at the nd of this writeup), but knew it was too early to take those teams. So I *settled* on a team with two stud SPs, a few good RPs and crap elsewhere. Thru 92 games, this team was ranked 11th in offemse, 10th in pitching, 2nd in field% and 7th in range. Yet, despite being above average in every category, this team is a .500 team with cthe 5th best ExpWin%. (10-11 in 1-run games).

'00 Pedro (15-3, 2.10, #1 Cy Young candidate) is as good as can be expected. But let's focus on the three big disappointments on the pitching staff. (#1) '99 Pedro should also dominate in this league, but is just 7-7 with a 3.95 ERA. (FYI - I chose County Stadium, which is a better pitcher's park than Fenway). He is ranked behind Jamie Moyer (3.90) and just ahead of Chan Ho Park (3.99) in the ERA rankings. Yep - I always think of those three names together, Pedro, Moyer & Park - similar pitchers, similar stats. (#2). I was excited to have a 100+ inning RP with a 1.00 whip that had an IP/G > 2. 'But 99 Derek Lowe has been a utter disaster... His opponents slash line is .327, .398, .482 and he currently sports a 7.76 ERA. (#3) I also expected a much better effort from long-reliever '99 Saberhagen (.351, .370, .576, 7.71 era). The stars & scrubs strategy falls apart quickly when key members of your stars group *suck*.

On the hitting side, '00 Nomar's stats (.308, .360, .462) are ok for a *good* shortstop, but pretty disappointing for a *great* shortstop (real life .372, .434, .599). I expected *much* better stats from Nomar than guys like Jose Hernandez and Miguel Tegada. Nomar trails both of those guys in OPS. Hell, Nomar is barely ahead of Omar Vizquel and Alex Cintron in OPS. I mean, c'mon! Nomar easily has the best real life OPS on my roster, yet is ranked 6th on my team. Another fun stat... my 2nd best real-life OPS hitter is Jeremy Burnitz (.963) but he has been benched since he has the 5th worst OPS on the team.

Grade: D+
Before the Top30 draft, I had the '03-04 Giants/D'backs Bonds team (currently at 60-38) as my #1 rated team overall in the entire tournament and was 100% planning on taking them with one of my top 3 selections. The problem was that I really liked 4 teams, so I had to decide which team would likely make it to me with pick #8. I guessed wrong. I reasoned out that I thought I could live with one of the Pedro teams if this Bonds teams got scooped up. That's how I ended up with this frustrating group. The other Pedro team ('01-02 Red Sox/Expos was taken by Chisock in the top 30 and is sitting at 53-45). Having a lot of success with a '03 Gagne-led team in round 1, I really wanted to take the '03-04 Dodgers/Pirates but felt it was too early to take them at pick #3. I was right, as they dropped all the way to pick #12 (parking31) but they are 58-40. I also strongly considered the '99-00 Braves/Cubs (taken by 3dayrotation 2 selects after my pick) and that team is 53-45. Man, I really screwed this pick up.

2003-04 Twins/Rockies (Helton)
League #12, Pick #18: 56-54
Every team that I built (pre-draft) in this league was taken except for three truly awful teams that went undrafted. So I needed to start building some new rosters hoping to find a team I wouldn't vomit every time I had to look at a boxscore. I came across this Twins/Rockies team. They have a stud Johan Santana season with some really good relievers (Nathan, Rincon, Guardado). In fact, I am using 8 of my 10 allotted Twins on pitching. I am cloning Helton and playing one of his seasons out of position at 2B. The goal of this team is to win just enough games to be annoying and for Johan Santana to win 25+ games and compete for Cy Young Award for this 90-loss team.

With pick #18 currently being over .500, this pick has been a success, although I'm not really sure how they are doing this well. They are ranked 16th in offense and 10th in pitching. The fielding% is decent (5th overall) but the range is poor (bottom 5). They are unlucky in 1-run games (10-14) and have a higher winning% (11th) than ExpWin% (13th).

I scrapped the Helton at 2B idea as Ronnie Belliard and Juan Uribe are servicible. Helton has been very good, as expected as '04 Helton (.322, .435, .622) is ranked 4th in MVP and '03 Helton (.346, .446, .585) is ranked 5th. I thought playing in the Metrodome instead of Coors would help the pitching staff. And sure, although we are ranked 10th overall, Johan Santana has been pretty mediocre (12-9, 4.82) and isn't even in the top 25 in league ERA. In fact, Brad Radke (12-7, 4.89) is arguably as good or better than Santana. Like most of my teams, the bullpen struggles are there (25/38 in saves) but given the steroid era this league is based in, Joe Nathan's 13/15, 3.52 ERA is acceptable. Funny fact: Sean Chacon is a terrible pitcher (4.60 ERA, 1.33 whip in real life). In order to save my bullpen, I've set his pitch-count = NONE and let him pitch entire games, regardless of result. Since I've been doing that, his ERA has dropped from 9.45 to 6.98. Just recently, he had a 139-pitch game and 132-pitch game where he went 9.1 and 9 innings and only gave up 4 runs in each. Meanwhile, stud closers with sub 0.80 whips routinely get bombed for 3+ runs in late-game save opportunities. Makes perfect sense to me.

Grade: B
Given that I had zero expectations for this team, one might think a B grade might be too low. But two teams that got selected after this team (big_dowg's '01-02 Oak/Det, 58-52 at pick #21 and footballmm1's '99-00 Hou/Ana, 57-53 at pick #23) have better records and I didn't even try building these rosters. So that's on me. I'm still annoyed that my '99-00 Red Sox (pick #3) team is doing so poorly.

2005-06 Twins/Giants (Santana)
League #13, Pick #3: 60-50
You'll notice that this team isn't mentioned on the list above. One of the reasons I didn't take the '07-08 Dodgers/Braves team is because I figured I could get either the 2009-10 Cardinals/Mariners team or this team later in the draft. njbigwig grabbed that Cardinals/Mariners team at pick #14, and there was a huge drop-off after this team in League 13, so I thought this was a better choice than maybe grabbing a league's 2nd best team. I strongly considered the 1995-96 Orioles/Marlins after two of the Maddux teams got taken.

Maybe one of the reasons many of my modern-era teams are not doing as well as my early-era teams, is because I didn't spend the time necessary to build a lot of teams in these eras. I only built 14 rosters from this league. This team is doing well enough, with the 6th best record and 4th best ExpWin%. This team is winning due to pitching (ranked 3rd), not the offense (ranked 15th). Defense is just ok (good field%, below avg range). And the luck factor is slightly negative (12-14). That being said, kind of expected more with pick #3.

Whereas '04 Santana has struggled on the previously-mentioned team, '05 Santana is dominating with 17-6 record, 3.16 ERA and is the leading Cy Young candidate. '06 Santana not so much (9-11, 4.11), although his ERA is still top 25. The other two SPs have been bad (Lowry, Schmidt are a combined 11-22, with ERAs 5.40 and 6.97). The bullpen has been pretty good (relative to what I'm used to), 24/33 in saves with six different pitchers having ERAs under 4.00. The team's best hitter is currently ranked 2nd in MVP. That hitter.... Randy Winn! (.306, .356, .507, 80 runs, 16+ plays in CF).

Grade: B+
I grabbed this team with one of my Top 30 picks. One of the teams I considered taking here was the '19-20 D'backs/White Sox in league 15. Not because I thought they'd be 74-36 and a top 5 overall team (like they are now), but because they were the only other League 15 team I felt comfortable with. At this point, I didn't know where my 2nd pick in league 15 would fall, and I figured I'd better not risk getting a crappy league 15 team that had no chance. The main reason I didn't is because I hated to use a Top30 pick on a team that might only be an 88-win team. Also, it should be noted that a number of picks made after my pick in league 13 have better records, including pedro's '05-06 Astros/Cubs (61-49) at pick #4, BeAllEndAll's '09-10 Dodgers/Brewers (630-47) at pick #6, toysboys' '07-08 Brewers/A's (69-41) at pick #10, DarthDurron's '09-10 Giants/Indians (63-47) at pick #20. (Of course, I ended up trading my second League 15 pick which was at #10... the '19-20 D'backs/White Sox went at pick #8, so I had no chance at getting them anyway).

2007-08 Diamondbacks/Padres (Webb)
League #13, Pick #16: 46-64
I was playing poker late Friday night when I realized my pick was up. I actually left the game early (up $200) and spent some time researching before posting my pick at 1:00 am. I had three choices I was considering. The two combos that I passed on ended up not getting selected by anybody... 2005-06 Mets/Reds and 2009-10 Rockies/Cubs. Both these teams have terrible pitching and very good hitting. The Mets/Reds team's defense was not great so I eliminated them from consideration. The Rockies/Cubs defense was strong so I would've taken them except that I didn't want to exasperate the pitching woes by having to play home games at Wrigley or Coors, so I went with the strong pitching / strong defense / terrible hitting D'back/Padres team. The team's best full time hitter... Adam Dunn (.237/.384/.497). Bet the "under" when this team plays.

I decided to play my home games in Chase Field to help the offense. Big mistake. This team is 20-35 at home and 26-29 on the road. The result of this terrible decision is that my pitching is ranked 15th, but the offense is still only 21st. This is my worst team, 21st in winning% and 22nd in ExpWin%. The starting pitching sucks. The bullpen has blown 15 saves. And the offense is pathetic.

I mentioned in the initial post-draft comment that the team's best hitter would be Adam Dunn. I was right. His .830 OPS leads my team (among qualifying batters). Another way of framing this... a guy with a .222/.372/.458 slash line is my team's *best* hitter. Do I need to go on?

Grade: F
I don't care how late I picked this team, there are at least a half dozen teams I could have taken that would have been a better choice than this team. I should have re-read the sentence "The team's best full time hitter... Adam Dunn)" and started over. Note to self: Do not make any sim-league decisions after a late night of poker.

2015-16 Dodgers/A's (Kershaw)
League #14, Pick #1: 66-44
Had I taken the '03-04 Giants/D'Backs Bonds team, this team would have been the team I left out of the top three. But the 2015-16 Kershaw-Kershaw-Greinke trio is too high profile and for sure would've been taken by somebody before my next pick.

This team has performed pretty much as I expected them to when I selected them as one of my top 3 overall picks. The team is ranked 1st in pitching and 20th in offense, but the pitching gap is much wider than the hitting gap. This team is roughly 50 runs worse than league average on offense but 150 runs better than league average in pitching. As a result, this team has the league's best record and the #2 best ExpWin% even though it's been very lucky in 1-run games (23-14). The defensive range is very good (ranked 2nd) and is league average in fielding%.

There really is no standout offensive player (not surprising given it's low ranking). But currently, three pitchers are listed in the top 5 for Cy Young. '15 Kershaw (14-5, 2.71) is 1st, '15 Greinke (12-7, 2.33) is 4th and '16 Kershaw (9-2, 1.46) is 5th. The bullpen is probably the best of all my teams. Kenley Jansen is 18/18 in saves with a 2.00 ERA. My worst pitcher is Rich Hill (110 ips, 1.00 whip in real life). I've moved him from long relief and have allowed him to spot start and his ERA has dropped from 6.17 to 4.55 before having a 2-inning-9-run blowup. Still, I'll take one bad pitcher performance if it means the others are doing fine.

Grade: A
Should I have taken the '03-04 Giants/D'Backs Bonds team instead of this team? They are 68-42, two games better than this team. It's hard to say. Sure, I wouldn't have to live with that frustrating '99-00 Red Sox Pedro team had I gone with the Bonds team. But then what team do I end up with in League 14? I probably take the '11-12 Tigers/Rockies (62-48), but then kstober takes my second team in this league, '13-14 Tigers/Marlins (59-51). So then who do I end up with as my 2nd team? My numbers had the '13-14 Dodgers/Twins (57-53) rated as my next highest choice. All this "what-if' is giving me a headache. I think my choice is reasonable here.

2013-14 Tigers/Marlins (Cabrera)
League #14, Pick #12: 59-51
So this is the league where I swapped picks (8 for 12) with jrig21 in order to trade out of league 15. Well, that seemingless minor pick-swap cost me getting my 2nd ranked team in this league, the 2011-12 Tigers/Rockies, which went one pick in front of me to kstober. Damn it! However, I do have this Tigers/Marlins team rated among the top 6 teams. This team has below average pitching mostly because the bullpen kind of sucks. We will surely blow some 9th-inning leads. But we're solid on defense and can hit a ton (Miguel Cabrera cloned). Ironically, Cabrera represents my only two bad fielders (at 1B & 3B).

For the 12th pick in the league, this team is doing very well. They are ranked 5th in offense and 9th in pitching. The defense isn't great (top 5 in field% but bottom 5 in range). They have the 6th best winning% and the #3 ranked ExpWin% in the league (12-13 in 1-run games), so I think this turned out to be a pretty decent pick. Note that the Tigers/Rockies team picked one spot in front of me (by kstober) is 62-48 but is 15-9 in 1-run games (6th best Exp Win%).

So the team with two Miguel Cabreras on the team is ranked 5th in scoring - that is not surprising. What if I told you I had only one player in the top 5 MVP ranking and it's not one of the Cabreras? '14 Giancarlo Stanton (.277, .409, .512) is ranked 4th. I guess the poor defense (11 - plays) is penalizing '13 Cabrera (.296, .391, .513, 94 RBIs). Jose Fernandez (7-4, 3.18) has been my best pitcher. Scherzer is 10-5 but his 4.62 ERA doesn't sniff the top 25. Anibel Sanchez recently threw 8.1 innings of a combined no-hitter, but his 5.97 ERA is still worst on the team (among starters). The bullpen is 24/39 in save opportunities.

Grade: B
On average, pick #12 should be right around .500, so this feels like a B grade, since we're better than that. Note that Harrelson's '13-14 Angels/Mets team (pick #22) is 62-48. Nice pick.

2019-20 Astros/Royals (Springer)
League #15, Pick #1: 60-50
I knew right away from building a bunch of teams that teams in League 15 were going to suck b/c of limited IPs and sometimes PAs. Hardly any 2021-22 teams were even selected. Even without all the number-crunching, this team would've ranked high on just about everybody's list.

Although I don't regret this pick, I have to say that this team has been a bit of a disappointment. Yes, I realize 60-50 is a fine record, but I was expecting a lot more from the tournament's #1 overall selection. This team has the 7th best record in the league and the 3rd best ExpWin%. They are ranked 7th in offense and 6th in pitching. Fielding% is 2nd best, but range is below average. The main reason why their record isn't as high as it should be.... a horrible 11-21 record in 1-run games. In their last 17 games, this team is 11-6, including 0-5 in 1-run games.

'19 George Springer (.300, .389, .572) is the team's best hitter while Gerrit Cole (10-6, 4.27) is the best pitcher. None are among the leaders for MVP or Cy Young. In fact, not a single one of the vaunted Astros starting pitchers is among the top 25 in league ERA. However, the biggest bum on the team, and one of the biggest reasons for my terrible 1-run record is Trevor Rosenthal. For some dumb reason, I assumed his .148 oav and 0.85 whip in real life would translate to sim success. Nope. He's 1-5 with 3 blown saves and a 4.85 ERA (down from 5.85).

Grade: B-
I previously mentioned that at the start of the Top30 draft, I really liked 4 teams and had to narrow it down to 3 with my top 3 picks. I never considered dropping this team out of the top 3. And it seems maybe that I should have. I actually had this team and d_rock's '19-20 Mets/Padres team far ahead of the other teams, and I would've been happy with either team... so in retrospect, I probably should have waited. If this Astros team gets taken, then I simply grab that Mets/Padres team with one of my next Top30 picks. That being said, there is still hope that some positive 1-run regression kicks in and this team can move up in the overall standings. Note that d_rock's Mets/Padres team started off terribly in 1-run games and that team is now 16-15.

Posted by kstober on 1/21/2023 11:37:00 AM (view original):
More fun. Making lemonade out of lemons. The following are my picks for those teams drafted 20-24 to make it to Round 3.

League 1: 1885-1886 Pitts/Bean 3Dayrotation (21)
League 2: 1907-1908 NYG/NYH JE3rd (24)
League 3: 1919-1920 WS/A's Steveizzy (24)
League 4: 1923-1924 Cubs/Clev nocomm999 (23)
League 5: 1935-1936 Det/Brook Footballmm11 (23)
League 6: 1957-1958 Reds/Giants chisock (22)
League 7: 1963-1964 O's/Giants schwarze (22)
League 8: 1973-1974 LAD/Tex Darthdurron (21)
League 9: 1981-1982 LAD/Tor Calhoop (20)
League 10: 1987-1988 SF/SD Footballmm11 (23)
League 11: 1995-1996 Col/KCR Footballmm11 (20)
League 12: 1999-2000 Hous/Ana Footballmm11 (23)
League 13: 2009-2010 Phil/Wash Fatboydad54 (23)
League 14: 2011-2012 Wash/NYM Toysboys (24)
League 15: 2017-2018 LAD/WS Footballmm11 (20)

My trifecta would be, steveizzy in the 3rd, chisock in the 6th and fatboydad54 in the 13th.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
360	.L01 1885-6 Alleghenys/Beaneaters	1	3dayrotation	21	45-115	0.327	0.291
290	1907-1908 Giants/Highlanders	2	je3rd	24	71-89	0.444	0.407
66	1919-20 White Sox/Athletics	3	SteveIzzy	24	91-69	0.548	0.593
45	1923-24 Cubs/Indians	4	nocomm999	23	94-66	0.573	0.595
320	1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer]	5	footballmm11	23	66-94	0.437	0.418
23	J2 L06 57-58 CIN/GNT	6	Chisock	22	97-63	0.559	0.568
333	1963-64 Orioles/Colt 45's (Robinson)	7	schwarze	22	63-97	0.449	0.367
151	1973-1974 Dodgers/Rangers (Messersmith)	8	DarthDurron	21	82-78	0.511	0.494
350	Dodgers/Blue Jays 1981-82	9	calhoop	20	59-101	0.341	0.432
75	1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark]	10	footballmm11	23	90-70	0.554	0.593
217	1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier]	11	footballmm11	20	78-82	0.455	0.506
132	1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell]	12	footballmm11	23	84-76	0.513	0.506
219	Phillies/Nationals (2009-2010)	13	fatboydad54	23	78-82	0.409	0.444
276	2011-2012 Nationals / Mets	14	toysboys	24	72-88	0.487	0.420
279	2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw]	15	footballmm11	20	72-88	0.461	0.506

8 out of 15 isn't too bad.

would have been one more since my 2011-2012 Nationals/Mets team was "unlucky" according to schwarze.

Thanks schwarze! A couple of big misses, but I agree 8 out of 15 isn't too bad, especially for picks 20-24. Also my trifecta hit.

Sorry for screwing up two of your picks kstober, but thanks for the faith!

End of Season Update
I'll quote my mid-season update and predictions as part of this.

Mid-season Update
Currently on pace for 11 teams to advance, 3 teams to miss, and 1 team squarely on the bubble. Given my drafting positions, I estimated 9.4 teams should advance, so on pace to beat that by a couple.

I ended up getting lucky at the end and squeaking 3 of my bubble teams through with 79 wins, giving me 13 out of 15 advancing. schwarze's analysis based on pick # changed slightly, so I ended up estimating 9.1 teams expected to advance and beat that by 4 getting 13 into Phase 3.

I got 8 of my 15 teams into the playoffs, with all 8 winning the division (no wild card berths). I of course was very offense-focused, with 10 of my teams placing in the top 4 in runs scored, 12 in the top 8, and two others in the top 14. On the flip side, had 8 teams in the bottom 6 in pitching. Just two were in the top 5. I had 7 of my 15 teams were both extremes--top 4 offense and bottom 6 defense--and all 7 advanced (though just 3 made the playoffs).

====================

1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty] 38-54
The offense has been good (currently 4th) but nowhere near good enough as the pitching is dead last and by a lot. I abandoned my strategy of putting both Delahanty clones as my double-play combination, forcing poor-hitting options there who at least can field a tiny bit (at SS, '95 Delahanty had 41 errors and 7 minus plays in 31 games, whereas Bones Ely has just 30 errors and 1 minus play in almost twice as many games; Lou Bierbauer has been an even bigger upgrade at 2B over '96 Delahanty). Billy Hamilton and Sam Thompson have been disappointments at the plate. Pink Hawley has been fine as one starter, pitching near league-average ERA, but the rest of the staff has been a disaster.

PREDICTION: No advancement

RESULT: 79-83 Advance, no playoffs
This team got hot, finishing at 79-83 meaning they went 41-29 down the stretch. This was an all-offense team and my mid-season shift to a little more defense paid dividends. Early on this was looking like a huge dud of a team so I'm pleasantly surprised they finished near .500 and will advance.

1899-00 Pirates + Perfectos [Burkett] 48-44
This team is hard to peg. Now 4 games above .500 but with a .461 Exp%. Just 9-7 in 1-run games though. Currently 9-2 since the ASB, I also made a defense-for-offense switch part-way through by moving Honus Wagner from 2B to 1B and letting Cupid Childs play second. He's hitting just .198/.282/.228 but he's fielding 50 points higher. The team is last in runs allowed (due in large part to committing the most errors of any team), but very close to the pack so it hasn't hurt us too much. The offense has been pretty good (4th-best). The question is whether our record (4 games above overall, 2 games above .500 in 2+ run games) or the Exp% of .461 is more indicative. I think we fall back out of the playoff race, but still hover around .500.

PREDICTION: Advancement, but no playoffs

RESULT: 81-81 - Advance, no playoffs
Prediction was spot on. For a while it looked like I might sneak this team into the playoffs but they faded down the stretch and actually ended up finishing last in a tough division despite the .500 record.

1921-22 Cardinals + White Sox [Hornsby] 54-38
One of my best teams so far but bumped up by a 17-6 record in 1-run games. The offense is best in the league, as we hoped, and the pitching is holding it's own--below average, but not terrible. The Hornsby clones are absolutely mashing (1st and 3rd in RC in the league, with a Ruth sandwiched between). The 1-run luck won't continue, but the Exp% is still .549 and we have a 10-game lead in the division so a playoff spot is likely.

PREDICTION: 90+ wins and a Division winner

RESULT: 93-69 - Division winner
Another spot-on prediction. I was one of just two non-deadball teams in this league and my hope that this Hornsby-led version would do better than the Ruth0led Yankees proved true. We led the league by over 100 runs scored, hitting a league-best .322 with a .819 OPS that also led the league by a healthy margin. The pitching was not good (22nd in runs allowed) but did enough to let the offense do their thing. This was my 2nd-best team by wins.

1929-30 Cubs + White Sox [Hack Wilson] 47-45
This team started off slow, had a nice stretch, then fell back again. But they've since gotten back over .500, the Exp% is .531 and we're just 8-10 in 1-run games. Currently holding the wild card spot as we're one of only 4 teams in the AL over .500. We're 2nd in offense and 2nd-worst in defense, but the offense has been more good than the defense has been bad. Another Hornsby has been fantastic for me and both Hack Wilsons have been great as well. The pitching is what it is, but looking like a potential wild card team which would be a nice outcome.

PREDICTION: Wild Card winner

RESULT: 79-83 - Advance, no playoffs
An 11-21 record in 1-run games hurt this team's playoff chances despite a .534 Exp% that was 4th-best in the AL. We were still able to hang on enough to get to 79 wins and advance to the next round.

1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer] 38-54
My worst team. Ripped off a 6-game winning streak recently and still 16 games below .500. The Exp% (.445) and 1-run record (9-14) mean this team is probably a bit better than the record but that's still a 72-win team and that ain't getting it done. This was the 23rd pick in the draft, so maybe we were doomed from the start. I again got overzealous trying to play out-of-position and gave up on playing one of my Gehringers at 3B. That hurt the offense as the replacement Joe Stripp is by far my worst offensive player. Don't see much hope for a turnaround at this point.

PREDICTION: No advancement

RESULT: 67-95, OUT
Yup, my worst team. Like many of my other teams, this was unbalanced towards the offensive side but whereas my other teams were among the top 3-4 teams offensively, this squad finished just 8th. With the 4th-worst run prevention unit and some below-average 1-run luck to boot, this team had no chance. Given it was the 23rd pick, not too unexpected.

1953-54 Cardinals + Red Sox [Musial] 51-41
One of my better teams but in a tough division so playoffs will be tough. Currently tied for 1st but with another team just two games back in the division. #1 in scoring and another below-average-but-not-last run prevention team, which is a good enough combination. My Musial clones, Ted Williams, and Schoendienst have been fantastic at the top of the lineup. Harvey Haddix leads a 3-man rotation but hopefully can pitch every other game in the playoffs, should we make it there, which would give us a much better chance at making some noise.

PREDICTION: Playoffs

RESULT: 89-73, Division winner
We were able to pull away from the other two division contenders, both of whom suffered from some bad close-game luck. Will be interested to see how this team fares in the playoffs.

1961-62 Tigers + Red Sox [Kaline] 52-40
A very solid team, especially for the 15th pick. The win% and Exp% are identical at .565 and we lead the AL West by 9 games. One of my few balanced teams (9th in scoring, 8th in prevention), we've been solid all around including fielding. Norm Cash is fantastic and both Kalines, Colavito, and Runnels have been very good as well. Another team where we should be better in the playoffs when Aguirre and Lary can form a 2-man rotation, sending Bunning to the bullpen.

PREDICTION: Division winner

RESULT: 92-70 - Division winner
Not much new to report here. This team was a much more balanced team than most of my others, above average on both sides, and cruised to a division title.

1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw] 47-45
My unluckiest team, just 10-18 in 1-run games and 0-8 in extra innings. The .573 Exp% is 2nd-best in the NL and best in our division. It's a tough division however with two teams tied at the top, my team 1 game back, and schwarze just two games back of us. Another balanced team--9th in offense, 5th in defense--if the close-game luck balances out we should be fine. Still may not be enough for a playoff spot though given the tough competition.

PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, but playoffs are a question

RESULT: 91-71 - Division winner
Finally snapped out of the funk, won some close games, and cruised to a division title in the end. This was my best pitching team and my only team to finish top 5 in both scoring (4th) and preventing (3rd).

1977-78 Reds + Padres [Seaver] 52-40
I had high hopes for this team, but they were slow out of the gate and below .500 over 20 games in. Since then, though, we've gone 42-29 and things have been much more as expected. I still expect some more out of this offense, but we're up to 6th there and we're above-average in runs allowed. '77 Seaver has been a stud ace, but '78 Seaver got moved to the pen. We're far enough in that this team probably isn't as good as I hoped but should still win the division.

PREDICTION: Division winner

RESULT: 98-64 - Division winner - TOP 20!
Went 46-24 after my mid-season update and with a win on the final day of the regular season ended up #20 overall for a spot in the Top 20 draft! There were 19 teams with 99+ wins and we had the best Exp% of the 98-win teams. This team started out very slow--especially Joe Morgan--but was dominant after that and ultimately proved my pre-season prediction correct that this would be my best team. They were my only pick in the top 8 of any draft going in, so happy they panned out.

1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark] 54-38
My biggest success story. The 24th and final pick of the Lg10 draft and have the 4th-best record in the league (of course, I'm in barracuda3's division so I'm only in line for the wild card). There is some good fortune baked in here (17-9 in 1-run games) but the .565 Exp% is not too far off from the actual .587 win%. The offense has carried us--3rd in runs scored--led by the Will Clarks, Gwynn, Kruk, and Brett Butler. Pitching has been solid, just a hair better than average in runs allowed. This team probably slides a bit and the playoffs will be tough--unlikely to catch 'cuda and will face a tough push from schwarze for the wild card. However, this team should advance to the next round, so very happy with that outcome.

PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, maybe a Wild Card

RESULT: 90-72 - Advance, no playoffs
The opposite of my Seaver team above, this was the 24th pick in the draft (note: I guess technically this got moved to the 23rd pick since someone ahead dropped out and the replacement owner picked after me) but ended up a huge success story. Along with the McGraw team, this was my only other team to finish in the top 10 in both runs scored and allowed (8th and 9th). The only bummer is that we got stuck in a very tough division and league, so our 90 wins weren't enough for a playoff spot.

1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier] 42-50
This team and my next one are similar teams--late picks with all offense in a hitters park--on opposite trajectories. This one reached a peak of 8 games over .500 at 29-21 but is just 13-29 since including a recent 11-game losing streak that spanned the ASB. At .438 Exp%, not a ton of hope for revival. This squad was always likely to be more fun than good and sticking them in Coors made sure of that. We're of course first in runs scored and last in runs allowed, but more bad in the latter than good in the former. I will note a couple interesting defensive things. I stuck Andres Galarraga (C+/A+ at 1B, unrated in the OF) in CF and the results have been...not terrible? I mean not good either though. 9 errors and 5 minus plays so far. For comparison, Burks (B/D+ in the OF) has 4 errors and 5 minus plays in RF. The other one is my SS decision where I have Jose Offerman and Greg Gagne. They have split time there and Gagne has been the better fielder as expected (.964 vs .923 Fld%, 8+/0- vs 0+/3-). But Offerman, again as expected, has been the far superior batter (7.81 RC27 vs 3.65). Which is better? Probably Offerman to this point, but not sure by how much.

PREDICTION: No advancement

RESULT: 79-83 - Advance, no playoffs
After the mid-season update, this team caught fire a bit before tailing off and getting just enough wins down the stretch to hang on to an advancement spot. As a late pick, it was fun to stick this team in Coors and see what would happen. Not surprisingly, finished 1st in runs scored and last in run prevention. But on balance, it was enough to get the advancement spot and have some fun along the way.

1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell] 48-44
On the flip side, this team looked lost early on, and as recently as 30 games ago was 9 games below .500. Since then, we've gone 21-8 and reached a peak of 6 games over .500 before losing the last two games by 1 run each. Now 4 games above .500 despite being 3 games below in 1-run games and with an Exp% at .530, this team is the Wild Card leader and just a game out of 1st place in the division. We're 3rd in runs scored and 19th in runs allowed. Can the pitching hang on? The offense is really good--expect for the disaster that the SS position is--but the pitching outside of Mike Hampton and Billy Wagner is pretty bleak. Chuck Finley is one my 3 main starters and has an 8.55 ERA. Not sure I trust this team to hold off schwarze (who is 3 games back but has a .561 Exp%, best in the AL), but I do now think they'll advance and that's another good outcome for the 23rd pick in the draft.

PREDICTION: Advancement, but just misses the playoffs

RESULT: 86-76 - Division winner
A huge run put this team in a strong playoff position. A bit of a late swoon left us tied with schwarze and facing each other in a 4-game series to end the season. After winning the first two games, Moises Alou hit a two-out, 3-run homer to turn a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 division-clinching victory. It was the second time in 3 games that Shane Reynolds beat 99 Pedro.

2005-06 Tigers + Marlins [Cabrera] 50-42
One of my few top 10 picks, this team has ridden some unexpected run prevention to the top of the division. Comerica Park seems to have helped the pitching more than it hurt my hitting. Both Cabreras as well as the Carloses (Guillen and Delgado) have anchored the lineup, as expected. But Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett, plus a handful of very good relievers, have put us 6th in fewest runs allowed. With a sizable 6-game lead in the division and the best run differential of the group, we should be able to hang on and win the division.

PREDICTION: Division winner

RESULT: 85-77 - Division winner
With the 11th-best offense and 7th-best defense, one of my more balanced teams. Not a great squad, but took advantage of a relatively weak division to secure a playoff spot.

2013-14 Dodgers + Twins [Kershaw] 50-42
Surprisingly this team has been better offensively and worse defensively than expected, especially since I stuck them in Target Field. My two Kershaws have been just okay but I've gotten better than expected production from the likes of Puig, Plouffe, and Gonzalez on the hitting side. Like the team above, this team has a 6-game division lead and the best run differential, so hopefully they can hang on for the division title as well.

PREDICTION: Division winner

RESULT: 87-75 - Division winner
The good Kershaw-clone group moved up to 7th in runs allowed while carrying a league-average offense which was enough to win the division.

2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw] 44-48
This team was 30-24 but has gone just 14-24 since to fall a season-worst 4 games below .500. The division is a beast and we are 17 games behind, you guessed it, barracuda3. But also 12 behind emanes10 so even the Wild Card is likely out of the picture. At this point, this is my main bubble team. We have had some bad close game luck (11-17 in 1-run gams, 2-9 in extras) so hopefully that bounces back. But on the flip side our Exp% of .463 is below our .478 actual. The team is 23rd in scoring and well behind 22nd, so evn the #2 run prevention unit can't keep us above .500. My Justin Turner has been abysmal (.208/.278/.288) and both Bellinger and Machado are barely above .300 OBP. This will be a true bubble team on whether they advance or not.

PREDICTION: Miss advancement based on Exp% tiebreaker

RESULT: 73-89 - OUT
Really struggled after the mid-season update. Had an outside shot to advance after a decent run late but couldn't keep the hot streak going. Just a really poor offense, 23rd in the league, by far my worst (next worst was the other Kershaw team at 14th). See: always go for hitting!