This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

It's going to come down largely to what you do in the CT, your rpi heading into selection, and whether there are a good # of upsets or not in other CT's. This last factor is actually quite huge when you've got an rpi like yours.

Right now I'd guess out, but it's really a crapshoot and absolutely no way to look at what you've posted and definitively say "in" or "out".

if you even were 46 rpi, I might be willing to say in 90% plus, even with a loss in the round of 8, the opposite does happen, but usually teams in the top 50 rpi wise get in.

but at 54 rpi, I'd say slightly less than 50/50, if your two top 50 teams win their ct, it will help you, obviously, with each ct win by you or them, your odds get quite a bit bettter.

Unfortunately, I was at 44 RPI going into my last game.

I say you need to make it to the CT finals. And your noncon opponents to do well, so root for me tonight :)

I think you need to make the Finals and hope that most Top teams win their conference tournaments and no 100 RPI's make it through CT upsets.

I think you need to play Maine again. The RPIs of the teams don't matter. Maine is 20-6 and could give your SoS, and consequently, your RPI a pretty decent boost.

Sadly, a few CT will be won by sub 100 teams, simply because they have no NT worthy teams, like the Southland or Big West.

Maine lost... now I'm down to RPI 57.

I get 16-12, 144 RPI, Sim-coached Holy Cross (OVR 706 against my 654) now... and then either a 17-12 team or, more likely, a 15-13 (OVR 713) Lehigh squad.

It's not looking good.

So that's 2 conferences that can't hurt me; 4 where only one team is dangerous; 6 where I could be safe by tonight; 1 where I'm going to need the final to go my way; 7 where I'm rooting for one particular team; and 6 that are going to screw me over for sure:

ACC: worst is 10
Big Ten: worst is 44

Big Sky: 90 (also 2, 4 in diff. semis, 17)
Sun Belt: 101 (also 21, 40 in diff. semis, 22)
Ivy: 65 (also 36, 42 in diff semis, 39)
Horizon: 161 (also 8, 19, in diff semis, 51)

A10: 64, 84 (also 15, 43 in diff. semis)
Big 12: 50, 52 (also 14, 38 in diff. semis)
Big East: 66, 147 (also 3, 28 in diff. semis)
Conf USA: 79, 82 (also 20, 53 in diff. semis)
Southern: 96, 127 (also 46, 48 in diff. semis)
WCC: 110, 146 (also 24, 54 in diff. semis)

PAC 10: 104, 105 (also 32, 37 in same semi)

Big South: 72, 92, 132 (also 16 Birm-South)
Mizzou Valley: 70, 169, 184 (also 23 Wichita State)
SEC: 87, 91, 97 (also 29 Auburn)
Mid-East: 131, 150, 255 (also 34 Maryland-ES)
Mountain West: 106, 128, 144 (also 49 Wyoming)
CAA: 81, 124, 163 (also 41 George Mason)
Summit: 167, 227, 236 (also 55 Mizz-KC)

MAC: best alive is 88
Metro-Atl: best alive is 113
Big West: best alive is 100
Southland: best alive is 126
Ohio Valley: best is 138
Northeast: best alive is 69

I'm looking like a PIT team - say the first four groups all go my way, that leaves 13 capable of hurting me, and I was 51st on the bubble watch. Then factor in the fact that this only matters if I take a loss...

Quote: Originally Posted By cornfused on 12/01/2009
Then factor in the fact that this only matters if I take a loss...

Exactly. Win and you're good. Looks like you've got a good shot.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

Well...you're going against a sim tonight, so although they might be equal in talent, I think you're probably the better gameplanner :)

I agree that Lehigh is more talented, but he plays a 2-3 that you should be able to shoot through, and even if you're missing, the 2-3 is is susceptible to giving up lots of offensive revounds and with your large reb advantage, I would pick you as the favorite.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

I guess your Lou Holtz routine with the sim worked, nice job.

After taking a look around Allen, there are a lot of conferences primed to send teams outside of the top 55 rpi to the NT. That means it's likely win-or-go-home tonight vs. Navy, good luck.