Home Run Rate Update
Following the “end of the steroid era” update, the HR/G rate at the big league level continues to drop. At this point, it’s a bit below what we had projected. This update will bump the rate up a bit. Prior to the update, the HR/G for two teams was ~2.80. As of this week, it had fallen to ~2.02. We are striving for ~2.40.
And, remember, the drop off is only at the top. Those power hitters that were hitting 80+ homers will come back to Earth a bit (with everyone else falling into place). This HR/G rate can be monitored on the World Snapshot page:
http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Main/WorldSnapshot.aspxI hate to bring this up again because it seems like it's been beaten to death but is this post from patrick supposed to mean that only the top end home run hitters are going to be limited and the rest are still going to hit the same amount of homers? It seems completely ridiculous if that is the case. Almost like he is saying a 90 power guy and a 99 power guy with all other things being equal, will hit home runs at about an equal rate with the intended change.