Pinch Hitting Topic

moos3p
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I am in the National League. My plan is to take my 2 worst starters and tandem them, hoping to pull them before they bat. Generally, I set the pc to get them through the 3rd inning, however, how do I get simmy to pull him sooner if my offense is batting around?
3/20/2010 6:41 AM
mitchrapp
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Use a lower pitch count and hope for the best.
3/20/2010 7:50 AM
jtrinsey
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Higher pinch hitting setting.
3/20/2010 9:26 AM
tecwrg
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I don't understand why you're doing this (pulling them before they bat). What difference does it make if they bat or not? It should be about how they pitch.

What you should do is set their TPC low, their MPC high and give them a quick "call bullpen" setting (4 or maybe 5, if they're really poor). Sometimes, they'll pitch well and you'll want to keep them in the game. But if they start to struggle, they'll get pulled quickly and and you can take your chances with the tandem B guy.
3/20/2010 9:38 AM
prezuiwf
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It doesn't seem like you'll add too many wins this way... I'd rather have a guy pitching lights-out stay in the game longer rather than having a bench player come in for one at-bat.
3/20/2010 1:22 PM
moos3p
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3/20/2010 6:22 PM
prezuiwf
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I think it's an ENORMOUS stretch to say this strategy could net you 5-10 wins per year. Even if this were done in real life so a manager could make the switch at the most opportune time, and the manager had an absolute beast on the bench he could use to pinch hit (while it's rare he'll even have an average hitter on the bench) I still doubt this strategy, in its best year, would yield more than 2 or 3 extra wins, given the small number of times it would be used, the even smaller number of times the pinch hitter actually reached base over what the pitcher would have done in those situations, and the even more miniscule number of times those hits or walks would actually lead to a run, not to mention the even smaller number of times that extra run or two would actually be the difference between a win and a loss.
3/20/2010 9:38 PM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By moos3p on 3/20/2010

Quote: Originally posted by tecwrg on 3/20/2010
I don't understand why you're doing this (pulling them before they bat). What difference does it make if they bat or not? It should be about how they pitch.

What you should do is set their TPC low, their MPC high and give them a quick "call bullpen" setting (4 or maybe 5, if they're really poor). Sometimes, they'll pitch well and you'll want to keep them in the game. But if they start to struggle, they'll get pulled quickly and and you can take your chances with the tandem B guy.[/QUOTE]Roughly 1/2 a point per game.


I want to set up my rotation to be
SP 1
SP 2
SP4/SP5/RP3
SP 3
SP5/SP4/RP3

Going to try and mimic an AL line up, get an extra 1/2 run a game or so and get 5-10 wins more per year. Don't know if it will work, but since I only have 4 or 5 good pitchers anyway, it can't hurt to try it out.
My prediction: your staff will be trashed by game 30-35 or so. And I agree with prezuiwf . . . even if it didn't trash your staff, no way are you going to get 5-10 more wins. Two or three, at most.

Kudos to you for trying to be imaginative. But in the end, I think this is going to do more harm than good to your team.
3/20/2010 9:59 PM
moos3p
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Curious as to why you think it would be trashed? It will be the same as a normal 5 man rotation, except my 3 reliever will not be available. My top to relievers will almost always be available in close games, blowouts will have relievers 4-6.

If you figure 64 games a year I would have a "dh", that will increase total runs by almost 32 runs. The average r/g is about 4.91 per game (.500 win percent if you averaged on offense and defense). If you add .5 run per game, your now to 5.41 runs scored vs. 4.91 runs allowed, giving you (64g* .548%= 35.1 wins -32 wins) 3.1 wins extra. Considering that the 4 and 5 starter are not as good as the top 3 ( at least not for me, 4.6 and 5.5 era, my starters are 3.5ish), I should save at least .5 runs/3.1 wins by not having them pitch to beyond the effectiveness, and should have better control of my relievers because of this. That is roughly 6 wins, and by not overworking the pen, I could see getting some extras here and there.
3/21/2010 4:51 AM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By moos3p on 3/21/2010Curious as to why you think it would be trashed? It will be the same as a normal 5 man rotation, except my 3 reliever will not be available. My top to relievers will almost always be available in close games, blowouts will have relievers 4-6.

If you figure 64 games a year I would have a "dh", that will increase total runs by almost 32 runs. The average r/g is about 4.91 per game (.500 win percent if you averaged on offense and defense). If you add .5 run per game, your now to 5.41 runs scored vs. 4.91 runs allowed, giving you (64g* .548%= 35.1 wins -32 wins) 3.1 wins extra. Considering that the 4 and 5 starter are not as good as the top 3 ( at least not for me, 4.6 and 5.5 era, my starters are 3.5ish), I should save at least .5 runs/3.1 wins by not having them pitch to beyond the effectiveness, and should have better control of my relievers because of this. That is roughly 6 wins, and by not overworking the pen, I could see getting some extras here and there.
I messed around with a "non-traditional" rotation one season, one that was not too different from what you're proposing. Things were looking good for the first 20 games or so, when the first hints of fatigue popped up. By Game 35 or so, the whole rotation was in the red and I was struggling to keep it together. I had to revert back to a normal five man in order to get it stabilized. That team ended up making the playoffs, so I know that the pitchers were quality to begin with. But the funky rotation just could not sustain itelf over an extended period of time.

Also, you're acting as if your "DH" is going to be the same good hitter every time. It's not. You're talking about 3-4 pinch hitters a game in the nine hole. Do you really have four of the "same guy" sitting on your bench who's going to be able to contribute an extra 32 runs?

Your entire plan seems overly "rose colored glasses" optimistic.
3/21/2010 7:27 AM
moos3p
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I am seeing the "dh" as the same "average" hitter, however, even the worst hitter on the bench will out hit my pitcher. As far as the fatigue, I won't have an answer for that until I do it for an extended time. I did mess with it for several weeks in the middle of the last season. Even though I didn't have the best staff for that rotation, I didn't notice the fatigue. But it was only for 20-30 games so it is inconclusive. So I'm not sure it will work, but I think it can.
3/21/2010 7:52 AM
tecwrg
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Good luck.

Hopefully, you will report back with periodic results as the season goes by.
3/21/2010 8:12 AM
jtrinsey
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Figure the difference between a pitcher and your bench bats is going to be like .200 OPS points, which would theoretically net 35-40 runs over the course of the season, which, theoretically would be pretty significant. There would be a cost of not maximizing innings out of your best pitchers, but it does seem like an idea worth trying.

I have tried it and, as tec said, all your pitchers will be in the red after a 30 games or so. For example, try to have the same guy pitch in 4 or 5 games in a row and you will see his stamina will start to crash, even if he pitches the same amount of pitches in each game and he recovered to 100% after the first.
3/21/2010 10:12 PM
zbrent716
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Quote: Originally Posted By jtrinsey on 3/21/2010
Figure the difference between a pitcher and your bench bats is going to be like .200 OPS points, which would theoretically net 35-40 runs over the course of the season, which, theoretically would be pretty significant. There would be a cost of not maximizing innings out of your best pitchers, but it does seem like an idea worth trying.

I have tried it and, as tec said, all your pitchers will be in the red after a 30 games or so. For example, try to have the same guy pitch in 4 or 5 games in a row and you will see his stamina will start to crash, even if he pitches the same amount of pitches in each game and he recovered to 100% after the first.



Either your bench bats are *really* bad or your pitchers are all sluggers who can also pitch. The difference will likely be more than you suggest.

That said, to the OP, where did the idea that 1 extra PH appearance per game is going to net you an average of 0.5 runs per game? That seems extremely optimistic to me, and I've been running an unconventional rotation with my NL team that has led to 276 PH AB in 150 games so far.

EDIT - And I see no reason whatsoever why you wouldn't be able to do this due to fatigue, assuming quasi-quality pitchers.
3/21/2010 10:24 PM
trsnoke
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That's kind of what I was thinking. Starting pitchers average around 2 AB/game. Even if your pitchers rarely batted, average 1/2 run per game from 1 or 2 pinch hit AB has to be unlikely. Best of luck to you, though.
3/21/2010 10:32 PM
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