So, I've got another owner trying to convince me that a SP prospect is "no where close to the player" I'm seeing. He's pulling the old argument that the guys a stud and I just can't see it.

Of course, I have $18 on Adv Scouting and he's got $2... BUT he says that he KNOWS what this guy really projects to because he's got $20/$20 on his Scouting and he drafted the guy a couple seasons back.

He also claims:

"There's been countless tickets about this and it's in the help database AND ask any of the vets around right now. That's the reason most real smart players of the game are completely reducing their advanced scouting budget. Because if you've got high draft scouting (like I have), and you track the first year or two of progressions, you get exactly what you need."

So, what's everyone's take on this? Has Adv Scouting been deemed worthless and I missed it?

And of course, seeing as how this vet is trying to convince me that it's the norm that I'm seeing drastically low projections with my $18 Adv Scouting, then with my standard $20 Training, my prospects should be cruising right by the projections I'm seeing. However, I have NEVER seen a prospect go past the projections I'm seeing at $18 Adv Scouting... So, why is this?

Sounds like in this case he is trying to convince you to make a deal. I know there are several vet owners (miket) who feel comfortable enough to judge a prospects future from draft position and a year or two or growth, but I dont think its the majority of HBD.

Exactly

And the question is, does MikeT claim that Adv Scouting is worthless and always off... or is he simply using this approach bcuz he's comfortable with his ability to track his players' progress and projections through means other than Adv Scouting?

Coonja, now you need to say what you said too -- you said that your 18 million advanced scouting budget always yields results within 2 points of the projection. And that's simply not true. That's not how it works. It increases the likelihood that you get a more accurate projection. That's exactly what I said.

And that is precisely the reason why people ARE dropping it down -- because you can pretty accurately figure out where the prospects are going without it, and because it doesn't guarantee that your projections are going to be right anyway.

So let's not put words in my mouth, ok?

Well Trop, I wasn't gonna call ya out buddy; but since you outed yourself let's also note that you're claiming that a lot of time people with $0 Adv Scouting also see more accurate projections than people with $20 Adv Scouting... Those are your words.

I never said a lot of the time. Again, let's not put words in my mouth.

And for the record Trop, this is all about the fact that you're still trying to convince me that the highly average SP prospect that you want to trade me actually projects to a sure fire stud even though my $18 Advance Scouting tells a VERY VERY different story.

You went so far as to claim that the projections I'm seeing are "nowhere close to how high he actually projects."

The advanced scouting budget works the same as the draft prospects budget -- it increases the LIKELIHOOD that you'll see all the top players, but it doesn't guarantee it.

Surely you're not saying that you see all of the top prospects in the draft invariably when you max out your draft scouting budget are you? Because they both work in exactly the same way.

Quote: Originally posted by coonja76 on 4/17/2010And for the record Trop, this is all about the fact that you're still trying to convince me that the highly average SP prospect that you want to trade me actually projects to a sure fire stud even though my $18 Advance Scouting tells a VERY VERY different story. You went so far as to claim that the projections I'm seeing are "nowhere close to how high he actually projects."

This is true -- I'm seeing some different numbers than you based on how I project people out. That's fine, I told you this wasn't about the trade any more a long time ago.

I don't think adv. Scouting is worth as much as I thought it did. If you've played HBD for some time it's obvious or more obvious that 23-24 yr old won't improve much. 25-26 yr olds, not at all or hardly at all.

Even the younger ones, therenare certain stats that get to their projected or close to the projected quicker than others. So if I see an 18 yr old pitcher with pitches at 56, 39' 28, 28 -- he's not getting much better in 4 years.

Nonetheless 18 is more accurate than 2 but you won't be able to convince the other person. Ever.

It isn't so much about convincing anyone of anything, mitch -- it's about how the budget actually works. And though 18 has the likelihood of being more accurate it doesn't guarantee it.

Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 4/17/2010The advanced scouting budget works the same as the draft prospects budget -- it increases the LIKELIHOOD that you'll see all the top players, but it doesn't guarantee it.

Surely you're not saying that you see all of the top prospects in the draft invariably when you max out your draft scouting budget are you? Because they both work in exactly the same way

Oh, so if they work exactly the sameway then I shouldn't be able to see a large portion of the prospects in the worlds at all, correct?

No Trop, they don't work the same. With the draft, Scouting effects how many and how accurate... With Advance Scouting it simply shows you more accurate projections the higher you go, period. And there are quite a few owners who believe anything over $18 Adv Scouting is going to tell you a very accurate story on young players.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.