If I wait til after rollover is it likely his price comes down?

Yes. His price will go down with his overall rating.

Not necessarily.

When have you seen this not to be true? Player demands are commensurate with a number of things including age and overall rating. Unless you think it's possible his price will go up (virtually impossible unless the guy is a very late bloomer) then how isn't it likely his price will go down? It may stay the same but the point is it's likely it'll go down.

His overall rating will not necesarily decrease at rollover it depends upon his makeup etc.

His price will be determined by the marketplace. A 33 year old Cy Young award winner will have a much different pricing dynamic than a 33 year old spare infielder.

Quote: Originally Posted By johndish on 5/31/2010
His overall rating will not necesarily decrease at rollover it depends upon his makeup etc.

His price will be determined by the marketplace. A 33 year old Cy Young award winner will have a much different pricing dynamic than a 33 year old spare infielder.

+1 -- you need to provide more info on the player in question.

Quote: Originally Posted By johndish on 5/31/2010
His price will be determined by the marketplace. A 33 year old Cy Young award winner will have a much different pricing dynamic than a 33 year old spare infielder.

I think the implication here is that the player in question is on the OP's team and he wants to know if he should resign him now or after rollover. If this is incorrect, then I apologize for the mistake. But if it's correct, my advice would be to wait until rollover. Unless he is a very late bloomer or in line to win a major award, his price isn't going up.

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Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 5/31/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By johndish on 5/31/2010

His price will be determined by the marketplace. A 33 year old Cy Young award winner will have a much different pricing dynamic than a 33 year old spare infielder.

I think the implication here is that the player in question is on the OP's team and he wants to know if he should resign him now or after rollover. If this is incorrect, then I apologize for the mistake. But if it's correct, my advice would be to wait until rollover. Unless he is a very late bloomer or in line to win a major award, his price isn't going up.

Absolutely correct.

I actually have FOUR 33 yr old FAs.

Just thought the rule of thumb was younger guys before rollover and older guys afterwards. Obviously there are circumstances that would cause exceptions, and of course pitchers are a little different. Still I would think even a 33 yr old pitcher would have to of had a tremendous season to warrant not waiting until after rollover.

Zbrent,

Very good articulation that is what I was trying to communicate but, obviously did not do so efficiently.

In my two leagues (L.E.G. and Fisk) quality pitchers constantly go for more than I can fathom. I never take the risk on a quality pitcher. I will risk it on position players as I value them less.

Even if the OP meant "demands", which I think he did, instead of "price", it's not a clear yes or know answer.

As has been said, some players will re-sign before rollover, then switch to "test FA no matter what" or "make me a great offer or I am leaving" after rollover. In either of those cases, the "price" is likely to exceed the "demand".

"Not necessarily" and "it depends on the player" are the correct answers here. If you wait until after rollover, you "MAY" get him for cheaper if his overall rating decreases and he doesn't change his mind about willingness to re-sign. In that case, his demands will be less or the same as before rollover. However, you also risk him changing his mind about re-signing and then he will most likely be more expensive to keep.

I think we might have to agree to disagree, as I have never once seen a past-his-prime player EVER go from willing to sign before rollover to insisting on testing the market after rollover. Either the other posters in this thread have seen evidence to prove me wrong or their memories are betraying them, but *I* would wait until after rollover to sign the guy. Just my opinion.

I don't know how you define "past-his-prime", but being 33 years old, which is the only information supplied in this thread, does not exclude someone from making a switch in how willing they are to re-sign (which BTW, doesn't necessarily mean they are insisting on testing the market...there is a status between being completely willing and completely unwilling where the guy will re-sign if he is offered a certain amount above his asking price) after rollover.

You can disagree with me, but I'm 100% certain from experience that willingness-to-sign CAN change (or at least could in the past, I haven't had an example in the last couple seasons) from before rollover to after rollover, even for a player that is 33.

Now, whether or not you would recommend waiting or not is a different answer. I just think it's important to note in these forums the difference between what you would do (opinion) and what is absolutely certain to happen (fact). Based on information not provided here, I may vey likely agree with your opinion that it would make more sense to wait. But it's definitely not a black-and-white, yes or no answer that would apply to all scenarios.

Quote: Originally posted by prezuiwf on 6/01/2010I think we might have to agree to disagree, as I have never once seen a past-his-prime player EVER go from willing to sign before rollover to insisting on testing the market after rollover. Either the other posters in this thread have seen evidence to prove me wrong or their memories are betraying them, but *I* would wait until after rollover to sign the guy. Just my opinion.

Oh I have most definitely. This past season in Griffey, I tried to resign Kyle Fisher after rollover and he refused. Now at the end of S14, he was more than willing to resign but I was unable to given my S15 cap situation. I didn't have the cap space to resign him until the next year, he refused, and I had to bid against others to get him (although I got lucky). And he was past his prime - 35 years old going on 36.

And come to think of it, David Murata did the same thing to me. He was willing to resign prior to rollover and refused to sign with me in S15. I wasn't as lucky in bidding against others for him and had to seriously scramble to acquire a suitable 3B for the season.