I've had some great draft picks in the past, but even with high makeup I rarely get them even within 5 or 6 points of their overall potential. Most of them I promoted from Low A to High A etc. 1 season at a time. In order to better make a player hit their potential, should I let them start in Rookie, or maybe extend their stay to 2 seasons in AA and AAA? I just got a great group of 18 year old prospects in the latest Shtickless draft and if I could get them closer to their potential, this team could have a pretty good future.

1. Put your best prospects with your best coaches, not necessarily moving them up one level at a time (though definitely move them up at least one level each season).
2. Playing time, playing time, playing time.
3. How accurate is your scouting? If you are spending only 7 or 8 million on scouting, then your guys may not be coming close to projections more due to your projections being bad than anything else.
4. Playing time, playing time, playing time.

Here's a pic of one of my prospects who didn't develop properly.




It's on the wall in every one of my minor league locker rooms.   My players seem to be working harder.

Haha, that looks like my wedding night!

You married a dude?

He married the dogs.  Both of 'em.

Stop thinking that projections are REAL. They are not. They are estimates. Even at $20M ADV scouting, you're just looking at GUESSES. 

Look at it this way: You're the GM of a Major League franchise. You get scouting reports from your minor league coaches, coordinators & advance scouts. You're trying to GUESS what the player in question will develop into 3 years from now. Are you SERIOUSLY going to be upset that Joe Smith's scouting report was a few points off (high or low) when he was 18? If yes, you should quit this game right now and start selling insurance. Because the actuarial tables are useful, concrete projections. If not, you should figure the guy won't develop 30+ ratings points in every category and then be pleasantly surprised when he actually develops 24 of those 30 "projected" points. If a player "has to hit his projections to be useful" he's NOT USEFUL. 

Good lord, I am really sad that more people haven't looked up "projection" in the dictionary and seen it's synonyms: MIRAGE, GUESS, ESTIMATE.

Uh, they're not just GUESSES.  They are variance off of the player's true potential.  The lower the budget, the higher the variance.  But calling them GUESSES is like saying they are just a set of randomly generated numbers.  They are not.  There is some foundation to them.

The key is to understand the variance and the things that can help mitigate the difference between what you see and what you can get with proper development.

Let's pretend for a moment that PROJECTIONS are 100% accurate.   How can you get him to reach his full potential?  PERFECT CONDITIONS.

His make-up would have to be 100.  Training would have to be 100%.  His coaches would have to be 100.  His promotions would have to be perfectly timed.   Can you make that happen? 

With the cheat code, yes, easily.

Without the cheat code . . . probably not.

Posted by soxfan121 on 8/23/2010 7:22:00 PM (view original):
Stop thinking that projections are REAL. They are not. They are estimates. Even at $20M ADV scouting, you're just looking at GUESSES. 

Look at it this way: You're the GM of a Major League franchise. You get scouting reports from your minor league coaches, coordinators & advance scouts. You're trying to GUESS what the player in question will develop into 3 years from now. Are you SERIOUSLY going to be upset that Joe Smith's scouting report was a few points off (high or low) when he was 18? If yes, you should quit this game right now and start selling insurance. Because the actuarial tables are useful, concrete projections. If not, you should figure the guy won't develop 30+ ratings points in every category and then be pleasantly surprised when he actually develops 24 of those 30 "projected" points. If a player "has to hit his projections to be useful" he's NOT USEFUL. 

Good lord, I am really sad that more people haven't looked up "projection" in the dictionary and seen it's synonyms: MIRAGE, GUESS, ESTIMATE.

Hey now, I work in insurance. 

Posted by tecwrg on 8/23/2010 9:18:00 PM (view original):
With the cheat code, yes, easily.

Without the cheat code . . . probably not.

up, down, up, down, left, right, left, right, B, A, B, A?

Erm. I understand the concept of projections, I was only asking for advice as to how I could make best use of my prospects' potential, because I assume my system is less than perfect. Thanks for the help, and by help I mean meltdown.

guesses and estimates are two entirely different things (spoken by the statistician who makes a living on predictions).

The players potential are neither of the two: 
If it is a guess, than our scouting has no play in it, why are we spending a dime.  There has to be some method to it, if not the game is worthless.
If it were an estimate, than we would have a fair number of players that end up above and below it, which we do not (barring the few DITR). 

What they give us, as Mike points out in his point, is an estimate of the maximum potential.

It's all about coaches, PT and no injuries from what i've seen.  You have to balance putting a prospect in low A with a hitting coach of 40 or high A with a coach of 50.  Every bit changes how high they go.