FCP question (following 2/3 update) Topic

I haven't been around in HD for all that long, but when I first started I heard of (and saw) a ton of FCP teams doing very well - probably better than their ratings would indicate. This apparently wasn't my imagination, as soon after I began playing HD, changes were made to reduce the effectiveness of playing FCP. Whether or not those changes went far enough isn't my question (though FCP still seems a bit gimmicky to me to be a base defense). Here's the thing though - 

At least 4 of the current changes stand to make FCP *more* effective once again:
  • Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that it causes your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!
  • Lowered 2-point and 3-point FG% - another of the penalties for FCP is that - if you don't create a turnover - you are more likely to give up an open look. Well, if the FG% are lowered across the board, those open looks become less of a penalty.
  • Reduced average FT grade for new recruits - in theory, FCP (rightfully) causes more fouls, and so more foul shots. If the average FT grade for new recruits (so eventually all players) is reduced, then more of those foul shots will be missed, so the "penalty" for running FCP and having increased fouls is lessened.
  • Increased steals - as clarified in the dev chat, this is not supposed to be an increase in turnovers, but instead just that a higher percentage of the turnovers result in steals. Wouldn't this change benefit a FCP press more than anyone else, as it allows for more steals in the backcourt or in transition leading to easy buckets? My center stealing the ball while playing in the middle of a 2-3 zone surely does less to lead to an easy bucket than a steal out of a FCP.
So what am I missing? Why doesn't this take us to the next age of dominant FCP teams, assuming we left the prior age originally?

2/3/2011 7:05 PM (edited)
Also, I'm not sure that the benefits of increased IQ in press are any different than other defenses, but some people think they are. If there are, it's another benefit, since the increase of recruit levels (without any increase in max levels) means less practice time is required for player rating development, which leaves more practice time for getting the whole team up to A+ in zone.
2/3/2011 4:32 PM
My understanding of the field goal percentage change is that it shouldn't have an impact.  He said it's applied to the base rate, which occurs before defense is considered.  Thus the same advantage/disadvantage should be incurred from the defense.
2/3/2011 4:34 PM
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:32:00 PM (view original):
Also, I'm not sure that the benefits of increased IQ in press are any different than other defenses, but some people think they are. If there are, it's another benefit, since the increase of recruit levels (without any increase in max levels) means less practice time is required for player rating development, which leaves more practice time for getting the whole team up to A+ in zone.
I don't see how needing higher IQ in the press is a benefit. Low IQ players in the press is definitely bad. I start my FR for Drew and they last for about 10min before fouling out.

But I do agree with your first 4 points, press is pretty good. Is it better than m2m? hard to say.
2/3/2011 4:36 PM
Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/3/2011 4:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:32:00 PM (view original):
Also, I'm not sure that the benefits of increased IQ in press are any different than other defenses, but some people think they are. If there are, it's another benefit, since the increase of recruit levels (without any increase in max levels) means less practice time is required for player rating development, which leaves more practice time for getting the whole team up to A+ in zone.
I don't see how needing higher IQ in the press is a benefit. Low IQ players in the press is definitely bad. I start my FR for Drew and they last for about 10min before fouling out.

But I do agree with your first 4 points, press is pretty good. Is it better than m2m? hard to say.
That idea is based on the premise that players benefit more from a high press IQ (or are penalized more with a low press IQ, depending how you look at it). If that really is the case, getting to max levels with fewer practice minutes means more minutes left over for practicing O/D.

It means fewer games (by any team with any D) played at low IQ levels and more games played with high IQ. If the relative impact of IQ is the same across the board, then this doesn't benefit one defense over the other. If the impact is not the same (that is, press is hurt more by low IQ or benefits more from high IQ), then this is another new benefit for FCP.
2/3/2011 4:52 PM (edited)
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/3/2011 4:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:32:00 PM (view original):
Also, I'm not sure that the benefits of increased IQ in press are any different than other defenses, but some people think they are. If there are, it's another benefit, since the increase of recruit levels (without any increase in max levels) means less practice time is required for player rating development, which leaves more practice time for getting the whole team up to A+ in zone.
I don't see how needing higher IQ in the press is a benefit. Low IQ players in the press is definitely bad. I start my FR for Drew and they last for about 10min before fouling out.

But I do agree with your first 4 points, press is pretty good. Is it better than m2m? hard to say.
That idea is based on the premise that players benefit more from a high press IQ (or are penalized more with a low press IQ, depending how you look at it). If that really is the case, getting to max levels with fewer practice minutes means more minutes left over for practicing O/D.

It means fewer games (by any team with any D) played at low IQ levels and more games played with high IQ. If the relative impact of IQ is the same across the board, then this doesn't benefit one defense over the other. If the impact is not the same (that is, press is hurt more by low IQ or benefits more from high IQ), then this is another new benefit for FCP.
That's not really how I understand it at all. Let's say you have 3 players at C IQ, same stats across the board. C IQ in zone means the player plays at 80% of his efficiency, C in m2m means 75%, C in press means 70%. Meanwhile, A+ in any set = 100% efficiency.  This is clearly hurting the press team with no real benefit. 
2/3/2011 5:58 PM
I don't really understand point #4. Does it matter how it is assigned, whether it's t/o or steal? Their is a change in possession. As long as the probability of t/o and steals did not increase as a whole, what's the problem?

Actually I see what you are saying, you are saying it leads to more fastbreak opportunities. 
2/3/2011 6:04 PM (edited)
Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/3/2011 5:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/3/2011 4:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 4:32:00 PM (view original):
Also, I'm not sure that the benefits of increased IQ in press are any different than other defenses, but some people think they are. If there are, it's another benefit, since the increase of recruit levels (without any increase in max levels) means less practice time is required for player rating development, which leaves more practice time for getting the whole team up to A+ in zone.
I don't see how needing higher IQ in the press is a benefit. Low IQ players in the press is definitely bad. I start my FR for Drew and they last for about 10min before fouling out.

But I do agree with your first 4 points, press is pretty good. Is it better than m2m? hard to say.
That idea is based on the premise that players benefit more from a high press IQ (or are penalized more with a low press IQ, depending how you look at it). If that really is the case, getting to max levels with fewer practice minutes means more minutes left over for practicing O/D.

It means fewer games (by any team with any D) played at low IQ levels and more games played with high IQ. If the relative impact of IQ is the same across the board, then this doesn't benefit one defense over the other. If the impact is not the same (that is, press is hurt more by low IQ or benefits more from high IQ), then this is another new benefit for FCP.
That's not really how I understand it at all. Let's say you have 3 players at C IQ, same stats across the board. C IQ in zone means the player plays at 80% of his efficiency, C in m2m means 75%, C in press means 70%. Meanwhile, A+ in any set = 100% efficiency.  This is clearly hurting the press team with no real benefit. 
For the sake of discission (not really because I believe the IQs work quite as you describe), the changes would still benefit the zone.

If C in Zone means 70% efficiency, then right now you have nearly a full season (depending on how much you focus on D obviously) at 70% or lower. With the update, however, you have to spend fewer practice minutes maxing out player potential, so have more minutes left over to focus on D. You can get them above the 70% threshold considerably quicker.

While you can do the same with the other defenses, the benefit to getting above a C more quickly in the other defenses is less, because it is only the difference between 80% and 100% or 75% and 100%, rather than 70% and 100%.

Put more simply, if you are right about how it works, this allows another weakness of the zone (worse results with poor IQs) to be minimized, because players will spend less time playing with those poor IQs.
2/3/2011 6:16 PM
I still don't understand how getting to higher efficiency earlier is a disadvantage for the zone. Let's make the analysis more extreme so the results are more clear. Suppose press can only play well with A or higher IQ, and you can put as many minutes into O/D w/o diminishing returns. If this is the case, you would probably put up 50-80min in def to get ur def IQ to A or higher asap. In order to do so, you would either 1) sacrifice player ratings development, or 2) take really high WE players so they still grow well w/o alot of individual practice. #2 is a huge disadvantage which limits how many players you can take. 
2/3/2011 6:24 PM
Tianyi, I've never seen you this dense before...  He's talking about HOW THE UPDATE IMPACTS THE PRESS.  And you are making his point exactly and still not getting it.  If it is in fact true that IQ improvement is most important for the press then if the update makes it easier to improve IQs it will help the press more with respect to the other defenses.  If there is any significant decrease in overall potentials it will be easier to use more minutes practicing O/D sets and less on individual ratings.  Players may be able to max out their ratings with 5 or 10 less minutes of practice time devoted to individual ratings than were previously necessary.  So there might be more time to practice defense and IQs may be able to increase more quickly.  If IQ is most important in the press then that strengthens the press.  Not that complicated...
2/3/2011 6:35 PM
Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/3/2011 6:24:00 PM (view original):
I still don't understand how getting to higher efficiency earlier is a disadvantage for the zone. Let's make the analysis more extreme so the results are more clear. Suppose press can only play well with A or higher IQ, and you can put as many minutes into O/D w/o diminishing returns. If this is the case, you would probably put up 50-80min in def to get ur def IQ to A or higher asap. In order to do so, you would either 1) sacrifice player ratings development, or 2) take really high WE players so they still grow well w/o alot of individual practice. #2 is a huge disadvantage which limits how many players you can take. 
I'm not clear what you mean by this honestly, so let me try and be more clear.

Some owners may limit recruits to those that played zone in HS, but I suspect most do not, so let's say freshmen come in at F IQ. Let's say further than under the pre-2/3 release, maximizing development meant not jacking up any one category (which I'm pretty sure is accurate), but instead a somewhat even distribution over a handful of categories (so no one was going 30+ in practice cats).

You have a handful of high potential areas for a given recruit, so you give 20 min for each and end up with 20 for zone. Under pre-2/3, you get him to cap out skills wise around junior season, with A IQ coming in senior year.

Now, because players begin closer to their max caps, you can get that same cap out skills wise in a junior season by putting only 15 minutes into a category, instead of 20 minutes (they have less distance to go). That leaves you with 15-20 extra minutes to push into zone. Now those F IQ marks get pushed further than they could have under the old system (not twice as far, because of diminishing returns, but further.)

So now, instead of capping skills in junior year and IQ in senior year, you have the potential to cap both skills and IQ during junior season (for example). 

This isn't exclusive to the FCP, of course (my zone guys will get to A sooner as well), but if you believe that the impact of poor IQ is more on FCP, then the FCP benefits more from this aspect of the 2/3 release.


2/3/2011 6:37 PM
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 6:17:00 PM (view original):
I haven't been around in HD for all that long, but when I first started I heard of (and saw) a ton of FCP teams doing very well - probably better than their ratings would indicate. This apparently wasn't my imagination, as soon after I began playing HD, changes were made to reduce the effectiveness of playing FCP. Whether or not those changes went far enough isn't my question (though FCP still seems a bit gimmicky to me to be a base defense). Here's the thing though - 

At least 4 of the current changes stand to make FCP *more* effective once again:
  • Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that is causing your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!
  • Lowered 2-point and 3-point FG% - another of the penalties for FCP is that - if you don't create a turnover - you are more likely to give up an open look. Well, if the FG% are lowered across the board, those open looks become less of a penalty.
  • Reduced average FT grade for new recruits - in theory, FCP (rightfully) causes more fouls, and so more foul shots. If the average FT grade for new recruits (so eventually all players) is reduced, then more of those foul shots will be missed, so the "penalty" for running FCP and having increased fouls is lessened.
  • Increased steals - as clarified in the dev chat, this is not supposed to be an increase in turnovers, but instead just that a higher percentage of the turnovers result in steals. Wouldn't this change benefit a FCP press more than anyone else, as it allows for more steals in the backcourt or in transition leading to easy buckets? My center stealing the ball while playing in the middle of a 2-3 zone surely does less to lead to an easy bucket than a steal out of a FCP.
So what am I missing? Why doesn't this take us to the next age of dominant FCP teams, assuming we left the prior age originally?

Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that is causing your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!

I'm not sure the part I bolded here is entirely true.  While there aren't many teams that run FCP for 40 minutes a game (teams that run the press typically only do it after made baskets or on inbound plays in the backcourt), there are cases where teams do go 10-12 deep when they press.  Growing up an Arkansas Razorback fan I saw plenty of it with Nolan Richardson's 40 Minutes of Hell style of play, which Mike Anderson is still running today at Missouri.  It is rare, but it is done.

2/3/2011 6:55 PM (edited)
Given WIS' track record of overcorrections in the past, I fully expect the FCP to once again become the dominant defense that it was before.  A lot of these little "tweaks" seem to certainly favor the FCP as opposed to the other defenses.  It certainly shouldn't take long to see whether this will be the case or not, but I'm saying it now:  I've got a realllly bad feeling about this.  I've almost always ran a M2M defense since I started playing HD, refusing to sell out to the whims of the engine like others did (nothing against those coaches, if they can live with knowing they were winning through "glitchy" means, then more power to 'em).  But if the Press does become dominant again, then I guess I'll have to join the list of sell-outs because I'm not competing on unequal footing again.
2/3/2011 6:57 PM
Posted by mduncanhogs on 2/3/2011 6:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 6:17:00 PM (view original):
I haven't been around in HD for all that long, but when I first started I heard of (and saw) a ton of FCP teams doing very well - probably better than their ratings would indicate. This apparently wasn't my imagination, as soon after I began playing HD, changes were made to reduce the effectiveness of playing FCP. Whether or not those changes went far enough isn't my question (though FCP still seems a bit gimmicky to me to be a base defense). Here's the thing though - 

At least 4 of the current changes stand to make FCP *more* effective once again:
  • Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that is causing your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!
  • Lowered 2-point and 3-point FG% - another of the penalties for FCP is that - if you don't create a turnover - you are more likely to give up an open look. Well, if the FG% are lowered across the board, those open looks become less of a penalty.
  • Reduced average FT grade for new recruits - in theory, FCP (rightfully) causes more fouls, and so more foul shots. If the average FT grade for new recruits (so eventually all players) is reduced, then more of those foul shots will be missed, so the "penalty" for running FCP and having increased fouls is lessened.
  • Increased steals - as clarified in the dev chat, this is not supposed to be an increase in turnovers, but instead just that a higher percentage of the turnovers result in steals. Wouldn't this change benefit a FCP press more than anyone else, as it allows for more steals in the backcourt or in transition leading to easy buckets? My center stealing the ball while playing in the middle of a 2-3 zone surely does less to lead to an easy bucket than a steal out of a FCP.
So what am I missing? Why doesn't this take us to the next age of dominant FCP teams, assuming we left the prior age originally?

Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that is causing your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!

I'm not sure the part I bolded here is entirely true.  While there aren't many teams that run FCP for 40 minutes a game (teams that run the press typically only do it after made baskets or on inbound plays in the backcourt), there are cases where teams do go 10-12 deep when they press.  Growing up an Arkansas Razorback fan I saw plenty of it with Nolan Richardson's 40 Minutes of Hell style of play, which Mike Anderson is still running today at Missouri.  It is rare, but it is done.

You're correct, there are (very) rare exceptions, but the point remains that - in HD - with so many *more* teams running FCP - it stands to reason that starters' minutes *should* be lower than in RL, where it very rarely happens.
2/3/2011 7:03 PM
No there aren't.  No team in the history of college basketball has run press the way it is run here.  None.  Absolutely none.  Zero.

The idea that teams can press after misses and non-stop trap the entire game and still be literally able to move at the end of a game is ridiculous.  It's why WIS should get rid of it as a base.

The biggest problem, I think, is that it seems like press teams and the teams they are playing decline at the same pace, when clearly the pressing/trapping team should decline significantly more rapidly than the team standing on the perimeter and passing around.  So, this change, I think, helps press teams, but that's mostly because stamina within the press is already inherently flawed, which is the MUCH bigger problem.
2/3/2011 7:19 PM
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