My team in the HBD World The Bigs was playing close to .600 ball up until the A/S break of the last season...then like somebody flipped a switch...they couldn't win 3 of 10. Went from having a good shot at winning 100 to barely breaking .500.   While I did lose my closer and my SP#5...around this time.  The replacement Closer..did as good if not better when called on, but that wasn't too often.  My new #5 guy was iffy but the thing is, the other 4 which had been solid up to then suddenly NOSED DIVED.

Curious why?

Another curious thing, this season things have continued at a sub .350 level, but the odd thing about that is Away record is 19-20, Home record is 6-28??!!  Now this is Norfolk a basically neutral park (just a -1 in 2B, rest is Zero)   Why are they suddenly sucking at home??  I think this winning at home problem started at last season's A/S break.. again up until the A/S game, the home record was excellent (over .600).

Not to mention this season my 1B who hit .330+ last year, is at .230 this season. ...take a look at the team.  I'm at a lose on what exactly is going on.   World:  The Bigs   Team:  Norfolk Destroyers

I'd sit Nakano, he's doing nothing for you. Then I'd updgrade around the diamond defensively.  Kelly to SS.  Manzillo to CF.  Hernandez to 2B.  Hartman in LF.  Perkins in RF.

Nakano..other than being my best OBP guy so far this season... though he is weak in RF.   Hernandez and Perkins while decent Defensively..have sucked at the plate all season..  The biggest problem this team has ALWAYS had was scoring runs. Now that could be a factor of the -1 at 2B for my ballpark, you need baserunners and baserunners who can go 1st to 3rd on a single and team speed isn't really there, but all this wasn't a problem for the first 90+ games last season.

Still the ? still is why the drastic fall off AND why can't they win at home??  

Not trying to be a jerk, but is there any chance that your team isn't as good as the .600 record would indicate?

Your team is an 83 to 85-win team that likes to be really streaky?

I'm just saying, because no team is as good as when things are clicking, nor as bad as when things get ugly.  Even 100-win teams can throw up an L6, and 100-loss teams can throw in a couple of W5s along the way.  The larger the data set you have, the closer to the truth you're going to get.

Season	Owner	Level	Record	%	Final Standing	Wild Card	Division Title	DCS Winner	LCS Winner	WS Winner
1	aginor	ML	88-74	.543	2nd	No	No
2	aginor	ML	82-80	.506	2nd	No	No
3	aginor	ML	97-65	.599	1st	No	Yes	no	no	no
4	aginor	ML	79-83	.488	3rd	No	No
5	aginor	ML	75-87	.463	3rd	No	No
6	aginor	ML	70-92	.432	3rd	No	No
7	aginor	ML	73-89	.451	4th	No	No
8	aginor	ML	67-95	.414	4th	No	No
9	aginor	ML	61-101	.377	4th	No	No
10	aginor	ML	70-92	.432	4th	No	No
11	aginor	ML	60-102	.370	4th	No	No
12	aginor	ML	83-79	.512	3rd	No	No
13	aginor	ML	25-49	.338	-	-	-	-	-	-

Looking at the team's record in the seasons preceeding the .600+ start last season, my guess would be that .600 was drastically overachieving and falsely raised your expectations.  I'm also guessing that your team is probably better than .338, but should probably normalize to somewhere in the middle - a mid 70's team.

Posted by iain on 3/23/2011 9:49:00 AM (view original):
Not trying to be a jerk, but is there any chance that your team isn't as good as the .600 record would indicate?

Your team is an 83 to 85-win team that likes to be really streaky?

I'm just saying, because no team is as good as when things are clicking, nor as bad as when things get ugly.  Even 100-win teams can throw up an L6, and 100-loss teams can throw in a couple of W5s along the way.  The larger the data set you have, the closer to the truth you're going to get.

No not at all...Not suggesting this team is a .600 team at all.  It was just a VERY sudden switch from being competitive to being useless.    Not only that, why can't they win at home?  They are practically a .500 (19-20) on the road but 6-29 at home... this home record makes NO sense what so ever..

Still then there is the Cruz Factor, this guy s/b doing FAR better than he is ....

To be honest, I think this team s/b able to compete for a WC berth at present...

You won't like this answer, but 34 games = SSS.  Maybe you've just hosted all the best teams early?

I looked at that too...still only 6 wins in 34 games.  Yea did host 3 of the best early but those only 10 games really but against rest    

Oh you're right...I HATE that term... it's the persistent fall back that everybody uses. Yea sure it does apply some times, but not nearly as often as it is used by people here.

The answer is small sample size.

Randomness.  And small sample size.

It's hard to judge how good a team is without being in the world but, from what I saw, you've got a team that capable of 70-80 wins in most worlds I've been in.

That's very true. The main thng I'm really wondering is there something about the team..that would make them not suited for their home park.  It's basically neutral except for the -1 at 2B...now is that a big deal?  Is the slight reduction in Doubles something could be a BIG thing.  Maybe team speed needs to improve - Need players that can go 1st to 3rd...with fewer doubles this might be needed...etc.

I think you're over analysing.

No park has a significant enough impact to make a good team awful.

Good teams win games, no matter where they are played.

You're probably losing a lot of games because your pitching is not so good (most SPs should have vs RHP in the 70s or at the very least high 60s).  It's not terrible, but to make up for it, you should either have a ridiculous offense (yours is just good) or a smothering defense (most of your players have sub-par defensive #s, leading to errors and - plays, both of which cost a lot of runs.)  You could probably make .500 by improving the defense and 90 wins by adding a true SP1.