Hojo or the Wizard of Oz? Topic

Who would you rather have at shortstop, considering both offense and defense: Howard Johnson '89 or Ozzie Smith '89? Or is there someone better at about the same salary or less?
7/15/2011 11:11 AM
open league?  theme league?? cap???
7/15/2011 12:31 PM
IMO, its more important to draft to a concept rather than pinching pennies. The vast majority of players are priced fairly.
Its bad form to ask "how do I win more games?" in the forums anyway.
7/15/2011 2:13 PM
How do I lose more games?
7/15/2011 4:10 PM

Hojo.
Wait a minute.............DOH!

7/15/2011 4:50 PM
1917 Buck Weaver
7/15/2011 5:31 PM
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I play in Target most of the time these days, so my offensive players tend to be high average/2B/3B, good base stealers, and good defense. I've only used Ozzie on a spring training team, and he led my team in RC. He also made 3 errors in 10 games.
Hojo is obviously a better home run hitter, and would be hurt in Target. But he is also a very good base stealer. He can hit his home runs on the road. But with his 30+/- minus plays......I don't know if his atrocious range is that much of a detriment. That's what I'm trying to decide. Maybe I'll create identical dream teams other than SS, and have them play each other a couple thousand times or so. 
7/15/2011 6:23 PM
And with boogerlips being from Mizzou and all....I really can't listen to anything he says.
7/15/2011 6:33 PM
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OK, I think I have the answer. Thanks, all.
7/15/2011 7:24 PM
[Note that I updated my original post in which I messed up some of the math]

The numbers  give a different answer than most people would probably guess.

Ozzie's average line is .294/.345/.381
Hojo's average line is .303/.374/.511

Ozzie is +21 outs and +40 bases over average on defense
Hojo is -7 outs and -18 bases over (under) average on defense

Factoring defense,
Ozzie's equivalent line is .313/.396/.459
Hojo's equivalent line is .292/.365/.482

However there are a couple of caveats:
(1) Behind a stud pitcher, especially the low K kind, Ozzie will become more valuable while Hojo will lose value
(2) Facing a stud pitcher, especially the low HR/9 kind, Hojo loses value relative to Ozzie.
(3) Obviously park HR factor is huge.
(4) Ozzie's defense over Hojo is also worth ~$93K of pitching

Perhaps it depends on what kind of team you are fiedling, but unless you are taking great advantage of Hojo's homerun's, Ozzie is flat out the better regular season player (.854 compared to .847 equilalent ops).  When you factor in the trouble Hojo may cause you in the post-season, the numbers show Ozzie is a clearly better choice.



7/17/2011 2:05 AM (edited)

What is your logic behind caveats 1 and 2?

7/17/2011 2:59 AM
Boog,
(1) The better the pitcher (or the fewer Ks), the more chances for a minus play.  It is true that Ozzie will also generate more errors behind a low oavg pitcher, but the numbers show Hojo will get worse relative to Ozzie.  Also the two's ability to turn a double play will become more differentiated.
 (2) Hojo generates much more of his value through slugging.  If Hojo faces a very low HR/9 pitcher, those HRs turn to doubles (or ocasionally a tripple).  Taking that into account HoJo's equivalent line becomes: .292/.365/.396 (.762 ops).  Ozzie doesn't rely on the HR for value so his line degrades just slightly to .314/.396/.456 (.851 ops).
7/17/2011 2:23 PM
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