CS's response:
"Thanks for the note. When a recruit is considering you among others, this means that you are one of perhaps several schools that he is looking to attend. While other schools are on the considering list, you cannot assume that you will sign the player. You may be leading in the recruiting battle, but that can change at any point. What likely happened in your situation is that you never did enough to make the recruit commit to you and therefore allowed the sim school to stick around. Since this school was still being considered, they would have continued to actively recruit the player. Your activity with these players then likely tailed off and the sim team was able to convince the player to sign with them. In the future, if you go after the recruits a little harder and get the players to drop the sim teams from their considering lists, the sim teams will stop actively recruiting them and your path to signed recruits will be much easier."
This means
A) Sims continue to actively recruit throughout the cycles before signings,
B) a scholarship email saying you are a recruit's #1 choice does not necessarily mean you are leading -- or, if it does, then you may never get an email announcing you have lost the lead before a recruit just goes and signs with a different team, or
C) this guy doesn't know what he's talking about