How much is this guy worth?  At age 21 is is realistic to think he might get to his PROJ's as far as fielding is concerned?

My FI 's rating is 81, My INT scouting is 16

21yr old SS

General & Fielding Ratings
Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	6-1	175	68	82	80	87	87	24	82	90	52	26	56	79
Projected	-	6-1	175	77	91	93	94	98	25	87	95	52	33	56	89

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	70	23	37	64	42	74	66	22	25	0	16	16	21	39	79	0	0	0	0
Projected	-	83	23	45	73	44	84	76	27	30	0	17	19	24	37	85	0	0	0	0

Not more than 3 million.  He's either an elite utility player or a SS with .670 OPS.

lol i thought the title said "pray" because i've been arguing about tim tebow too much lately.

i'd definitely go above $3M, that's such an arbtirary cutoff.  it all depends on so many things

1) how much prospect payroll do you have (including transfer potential)?
2) how much prospect payroll does everyone else have?
3) how many days are left in the minor league regular seasons?

also s/l/r?

a/s/l?

ok so it seems that there's still a lot of time left in the season and you have more prospect payroll than anybody else.

so i would say go as high as you can that still allows you to outbid everyone.  or maybe if there's a gap between the #2 and #3 guy, leave enough to outbid everyone but the #2 guy (who would become #1)

he's a really legitimately good SS, idk if i would risk missing out on a future cy young or mvp candidate for him.  having ~ 250 cycles of ifa's with more money than everybody else is going to probably end up revealing at least one stone cold stud to you.  i guess it wouldn't be terrible to go as high as it takes to sign him, i'd just be leery of the potential upside you're passing up.

You're the only person who can answer this question.    Unless deano is going to examine every team in your world.

If its still early in the IFA I wouldnt put a big bid on him, I'd offer his minimum demands and see if you can get him for that. If not save your money for someone big

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 6:18:00 PM (view original):
lol i thought the title said "pray" because i've been arguing about tim tebow too much lately.

i'd definitely go above $3M, that's such an arbtirary cutoff.  it all depends on so many things

1) how much prospect payroll do you have (including transfer potential)?
2) how much prospect payroll does everyone else have?
3) how many days are left in the minor league regular seasons?

You are right of course about $3mil being a an arbitrary cut off and I shouldn't argue with a man with 9 x more WS championships than me.  I thought about $4 million too, but I feel pretty comfortable I am in the right ballpark. 
It seems to me there is only two approaches that make sense when looking at IFA.  #1 Exploit scarcity.  #2 Exploit market irrationalities.  There is a scarcity of superstars so there is almost no price too high for a true superstar.  If its a non-superstar than it only makes sense to hunt for bargins since the draft will get a player for generally less bonus money and ML FA will generally get a guy more ready to help the ML club immediately.  Paying full market value for the 14th best player on your ML team is a lot to pay IMO.  At 3-4 mil I would feel like I got a deal on a ML player who will never make a single all-star game.  Still, I will read the other comments in this thread as I still consider myself closer to a beginner than a vet.

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/22/2011 6:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 6:18:00 PM (view original):
lol i thought the title said "pray" because i've been arguing about tim tebow too much lately.

i'd definitely go above $3M, that's such an arbtirary cutoff.  it all depends on so many things

1) how much prospect payroll do you have (including transfer potential)?
2) how much prospect payroll does everyone else have?
3) how many days are left in the minor league regular seasons?

You are right of course about $3mil being a an arbitrary cut off and I shouldn't argue with a man with 9 x more WS championships than me.  I thought about $4 million too, but I feel pretty comfortable I am in the right ballpark. 
It seems to me there is only two approaches that make sense when looking at IFA.  #1 Exploit scarcity.  #2 Exploit market irrationalities.  There is a scarcity of superstars so there is almost no price too high for a true superstar.  If its a non-superstar than it only makes sense to hunt for bargins since the draft will get a player for generally less bonus money and ML FA will generally get a guy more ready to help the ML club immediately.  Paying full market value for the 14th best player on your ML team is a lot to pay IMO.  At 3-4 mil I would feel like I got a deal on a ML player who will never make a single all-star game.  Still, I will read the other comments in this thread as I still consider myself closer to a beginner than a vet.

i think he'll make an all-star game.

he may not make 10, but i'd figure he'd make 2 or 3 over his career.  i've seen easily worse SS's go for $5M+ year on the FA market, so why cut it off at $4M?

it doesn't matter how it "feels" to you, because your feelings are probably wrong (no offense, speaking generally here).  what matters is whether X dollars of prospect payroll is more valuable than the rights to this guy.   if the answer is yes, don't bid that amount.  if it's no, then do bid that amount.  the answer might actually be no in this scenario since he can outbid anybody, but if there were like 7 people with high prospect budgets than me i'd pay as much as it takes to get him.

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 7:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/22/2011 6:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 6:18:00 PM (view original):
lol i thought the title said "pray" because i've been arguing about tim tebow too much lately.

i'd definitely go above $3M, that's such an arbtirary cutoff.  it all depends on so many things

1) how much prospect payroll do you have (including transfer potential)?
2) how much prospect payroll does everyone else have?
3) how many days are left in the minor league regular seasons?

You are right of course about $3mil being a an arbitrary cut off and I shouldn't argue with a man with 9 x more WS championships than me.  I thought about $4 million too, but I feel pretty comfortable I am in the right ballpark. 
It seems to me there is only two approaches that make sense when looking at IFA.  #1 Exploit scarcity.  #2 Exploit market irrationalities.  There is a scarcity of superstars so there is almost no price too high for a true superstar.  If its a non-superstar than it only makes sense to hunt for bargins since the draft will get a player for generally less bonus money and ML FA will generally get a guy more ready to help the ML club immediately.  Paying full market value for the 14th best player on your ML team is a lot to pay IMO.  At 3-4 mil I would feel like I got a deal on a ML player who will never make a single all-star game.  Still, I will read the other comments in this thread as I still consider myself closer to a beginner than a vet.

i think he'll make an all-star game.

he may not make 10, but i'd figure he'd make 2 or 3 over his career.  i've seen easily worse SS's go for $5M+ year on the FA market, so why cut it off at $4M?

it doesn't matter how it "feels" to you, because your feelings are probably wrong (no offense, speaking generally here).  what matters is whether X dollars of prospect payroll is more valuable than the rights to this guy.   if the answer is yes, don't bid that amount.  if it's no, then do bid that amount.  the answer might actually be no in this scenario since he can outbid anybody, but if there were like 7 people with high prospect budgets than me i'd pay as much as it takes to get him.

.260 5 HR's 60 RBI 3 SB with GG defense is not a throw away commodity I grant you, but I can not give you that with that Vs. L, P, BE, and speed will ever be among the top 2 SS's in the league.  I know you get in trouble when you start comparing to RL, but even if we grant him Omar Vizquel defense (11 GG's), Omar stole over 400 bases and has a life time average in the .270's if memory serves and he only made 3 all star games.  This guy will not put up an average or steal numbers close to that and HBD has a tighter all-star process. 

Second, just because others have paid $5 mil or even $8 mil for a similar SS in the past doesn't make it a good idea.  I cut it off at what I still consider a good deal.  A play like that is pretty fungible.  No reason to follow the bidding all the way up.  Just because he has a high prospect budget doesn't make it a good idea either.  The opportunity cost of using say $7 million on a player that replacable is pretty significant.  The type of IFA one can get for say 12mil in prospect budget is less than half as scarce as the kind of guy who is worth $20 mil from my experience (which I grant pails in comparison to yours). 

I do not disagree with your third point.  I accept that if 7 people have higher prospect budget than you and this is the best player you have a reasonable shot at that it makes complete sense to go all in.  I just disagree that this will be the best player in any but a very limited amount of situations.

This guy shouldnt even be bid on by the team that has the most prospect cash.  Guaranteed there is going to be a much better guy coming along at which time you are going to need to spend all or almost all but the last 6mill of your prospect cash.  This IFA should definately be making the 7th to 10th most prospect cash teams roster.

Guaranteed this guy will go for between 4 and 7 mill and is worth it at that price, but only if you dont have much prospect cash to begin with.

I have approx 30M prospect money.. We just had the amatuer draft.. There's only 1-2 legit defensive SS's in the world..

you mean legit def SSs who can also hit?  prolly, but this guys hitting is nothing to write home about.  at best Id say he is an average hitting SS.  And with poor speed.  not worthy of consideration in your case no way.  There will be a far better player at some point.  If SSs that have some bat like this guy is as rare as you say I might say then that if you have the 3rd most prospect cash to go for him if you have terrible SS prospects and an old current ML SS. 

But if you had the 2nd most there is a decent chance that the 1st guy wont see the best IFA and therefore you have the inside track on him.  But, in my experience Id say the IFA in question shouldnt even be in the top 5 IFAs in an average year.

Problem with that logic is that simmy is fickle. I have seen many seasons in various worlds where there are very few "top shelf" IFA's. While I agree it's likely a better IFA may come along and it's reasonable to plan for that - it's not something anyone can guarantee.

Also looks like he will have substantially better defense than either of your world's GG's last year. You might consider not just how many runs he'll produce with a .675 - .700 OPS but also how many runs he will prevent.

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/22/2011 7:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 7:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/22/2011 6:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 11/22/2011 6:18:00 PM (view original):
lol i thought the title said "pray" because i've been arguing about tim tebow too much lately.

i'd definitely go above $3M, that's such an arbtirary cutoff.  it all depends on so many things

1) how much prospect payroll do you have (including transfer potential)?
2) how much prospect payroll does everyone else have?
3) how many days are left in the minor league regular seasons?

You are right of course about $3mil being a an arbitrary cut off and I shouldn't argue with a man with 9 x more WS championships than me.  I thought about $4 million too, but I feel pretty comfortable I am in the right ballpark. 
It seems to me there is only two approaches that make sense when looking at IFA.  #1 Exploit scarcity.  #2 Exploit market irrationalities.  There is a scarcity of superstars so there is almost no price too high for a true superstar.  If its a non-superstar than it only makes sense to hunt for bargins since the draft will get a player for generally less bonus money and ML FA will generally get a guy more ready to help the ML club immediately.  Paying full market value for the 14th best player on your ML team is a lot to pay IMO.  At 3-4 mil I would feel like I got a deal on a ML player who will never make a single all-star game.  Still, I will read the other comments in this thread as I still consider myself closer to a beginner than a vet.

i think he'll make an all-star game.

he may not make 10, but i'd figure he'd make 2 or 3 over his career.  i've seen easily worse SS's go for $5M+ year on the FA market, so why cut it off at $4M?

it doesn't matter how it "feels" to you, because your feelings are probably wrong (no offense, speaking generally here).  what matters is whether X dollars of prospect payroll is more valuable than the rights to this guy.   if the answer is yes, don't bid that amount.  if it's no, then do bid that amount.  the answer might actually be no in this scenario since he can outbid anybody, but if there were like 7 people with high prospect budgets than me i'd pay as much as it takes to get him.

.260 5 HR's 60 RBI 3 SB with GG defense is not a throw away commodity I grant you, but I can not give you that with that Vs. L, P, BE, and speed will ever be among the top 2 SS's in the league.  I know you get in trouble when you start comparing to RL, but even if we grant him Omar Vizquel defense (11 GG's), Omar stole over 400 bases and has a life time average in the .270's if memory serves and he only made 3 all star games.  This guy will not put up an average or steal numbers close to that and HBD has a tighter all-star process. 

Second, just because others have paid $5 mil or even $8 mil for a similar SS in the past doesn't make it a good idea.  I cut it off at what I still consider a good deal.  A play like that is pretty fungible.  No reason to follow the bidding all the way up.  Just because he has a high prospect budget doesn't make it a good idea either.  The opportunity cost of using say $7 million on a player that replacable is pretty significant.  The type of IFA one can get for say 12mil in prospect budget is less than half as scarce as the kind of guy who is worth $20 mil from my experience (which I grant pails in comparison to yours). 

I do not disagree with your third point.  I accept that if 7 people have higher prospect budget than you and this is the best player you have a reasonable shot at that it makes complete sense to go all in.  I just disagree that this will be the best player in any but a very limited amount of situations.

i assure you that you're drastically underrating the guy.  he's a top 5 SS in most worlds and i highly doubt there's a single world where there are 10 better SS's.

not only will be probably be the best defensive SS in the world, but he's also an above average hitter for the position.  granted that his value over the average SS may not quite compare to the value over average of that of a top 5 player at another position, he still is pretty f'n nice.  there's definitely a nonzero chance that he's the best prospect his ifa scouts find over the rest of the season, i just think on average he will be able to do a bit better.

edit: handedness does matter, if he's a right handed hitter he's probably an averagish bat at SS and loses a bit of luster.  if he's lefty or esp a switch hitter his offensive value looks a bit better.