Base Stealing Topic

harrelson
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I'm in this theme league, and its the olden days, and guys didn't have a lot of success stealing bases.  We're 27 games into the league and the average team in the league has stolen 22 bases and been caught 18 times.  That's a 55% success rate.  Why does everyone steal so often?  I've seen this elsewhere too, in open leagues guys running wild with Ty Cobb and the lot.  Don't folks realize if you don't convert at least 75% of your steals you are taking runs away from your team?  I know back in those days the thinking was the hitting was so bad, you had to take chances to score.  And of course them was the days before Bill James and sabremetrics and (NO not money ball), so perhaps folks didn't realize (in real life) that giving up an out was too high a price to pay for advancing to 2nd.  But here in the 21st century, us would be GMs and managers should know the facts by now.  

So why do you do it?
3/2/2012 1:17 AM
jfranco77
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The default steal setting for these guys is usually 3 or 4, and not everyone remembers to change it.
3/2/2012 8:23 AM
crimsonblue
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Stolen base setting management preseason is vital and the game by game management is even more important.  A  75% break even point is generally the accepted wisdom, That number is probably even higher in the SIM with all of the haphazzard, ill-advised, mystifying steals of third when the break-even points are said to be approx. 78%, 69% and 88% with zero, one and two outs respectively. Stealing third with anything other than one out should only be done with the absolute best of basestealers, and the decision made by the SIM to do so I would hope is minimized in the future. 
3/4/2012 11:43 AM (edited)
mixtroy
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Yeah, with guys like Cobb and the like, I pretty much set their basestealing to "1". But when drafting for true basestealers, I use a 70% cutoff number and set them accordingly.
3/2/2012 1:15 PM
frazzman80
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The thing that is miserable to me with the old players is that you are paying for those SBs you are never going to get because you have to set them at 1. I have Honus Wagner in a progressive, and I know that I am paying for those 70+ SB he had in real life, but I can't allow him to steal in the league. Thus, I'm paying for them and can't use them without the big CS.

It would be nice to see CS% as part of the price formula.
3/2/2012 1:51 PM (edited)
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crazystengel
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I always put those old-timey runners with bad SB% on a 0 run setting, unless I notice my opponent has a catcher with a D- arm, in which case I'll switch it to 5.  I recently had 1899 John McGraw -- RL 73/118 (62%) -- go 5-5 stealing in a game against a D- arm.  Overall he's 14/18 in just over half a season, which I think is an acceptable rate.  

I have an AAA OF in a 1996 prog who's 2009 Josh Anderson -- real life rate of 25/30 in 298 PA.  I put him on a 5 setting for every catcher except the A+ arms (the setting is 0 then), and in 109 games he's 33/34.  I did the same thing in this prog last season, with 1995 Tony Tarasco, turning a 24/27 real life rate into a 53/54 sim season.  It takes a bit of micro-managing, but it's worth it.
3/3/2012 3:56 AM
harrelson
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I would expect the immortal Crazy Casey Stengal to get it, but it surprises me how many folks (70% of owners) who either don't get it or don't bother to change the default settings.  I was hoping to hear from one of those owners on this thread.
3/3/2012 10:12 AM
crimsonblue
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I would suspect that the average forum poster has a higher winning percentage and better understanding of the management settings. That's probably the reason for the lack of confessions.  I only use 2 of the settings (0 Zero) If you steal you get waived.  or (5 Five) you better not stop running.  What I don't understand are settings 1,2,3, and 4.  I'm in control here, why do I need Sparky to be wishy washy if my run criteria is exactly a 75% proficiency and no running out of the 4 or 5 hole in the batting order.
3/4/2012 10:28 AM
rbow923
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^ shouldn't you run more often in the 9th inning of a tie game than when down 3 runs? wouldn't you run less often against A+ arm catchers? steal 3rd with two outs? when using a middle SB setting Sparky chooses the best times to run instead of running indiscriminately.
3/4/2012 10:50 AM (edited)
crimsonblue
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What I'd like to see is a "would you like this player to run on A+ catchers?" Yes or No setting.  So I can start my  guys engines up in the middle of the game if the Piazza's and Estrada's of the world decide to come into the game late.  Or in reverse if the defensive replacement comes in late.
3/4/2012 10:46 AM
crimsonblue
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Posted by rbow923 on 3/4/2012 10:50:00 AM (view original):
^ shouldn't you run more often in the 9th inning of a tie game than when down 3 runs? wouldn't you run less often against A+ arm catchers? steal 3rd with two outs? when using a middle SB setting Sparky chooses the best times to run instead of running indiscriminately.
My last post was at the same time as yours.  I would make the A+ catcher decision pregame. It's a trade off I can live with.  You would get steals that you don't want in the first eight innings and more in the ninth or close game.  I don't think sparky changes the propensity for anything based on the inning.
3/4/2012 11:04 AM (edited)
crimsonblue
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As far as stealing third when it is undesired, someone please correct me if I am wrong but I always thought that the 0-5 settting controlled the frequency of steals in a universal way, not which base or which time is more beneficial.  Like someone said earlier, oldtime basestealers are set to 3 or 4 and are still getting thrown out constantly. Doesn't seem to be a great job of picking and choosing there.  Like I said earllier, we just don't have full control of someone stealing third with two outs. 

3/4/2012 12:46 PM (edited)
Trentonjoe
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There's a couple old timers that are better at  stealing bases that they should be.   I always suspected this was because:
  •  a high speed rating somehow positives affects the decision tree
  • owners were actively managing which catchers  they steal against
  • being the trail guy on double steals 

i cannot support any of those assumptions with data.
3/4/2012 12:28 PM
ribant4
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Related to this topic.

I can't understand why anyone uses a catcher with a lousy CSPCT. Namely, but not limited to Mike Piazza.  The additional offense does not make up for the bases advanced, not keeping the DP in order, and wear and tear on your pitchers due to higher pitch counts.

I see C as a purely defensive position and any offense I get is a bonus.
3/8/2012 1:08 PM
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