Why is this pitcher struggling? Topic

mccarthyizm
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Why is this guy struggling? This is his 2nd year in the majors, and he has been giving up a ton of HR's and generally underperforming:

www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx


3/12/2012 5:08 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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Wrong guy. 

3/12/2012 5:06 PM
mccarthyizm
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Thanks, it's right now.
3/12/2012 5:08 PM
a_ersberg
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With Sammy's ratings, with a quality D, in Burlington?  I'd be irate.  Maybe he's facing only lefties? 
3/12/2012 5:13 PM
MikeT23
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He's about where he was last season.  Your defense doesn't help him and it looks like a hitting-heavy world.  I'd expect him to do better but a season and a half is pretty good guideline. 
3/12/2012 5:16 PM
mccarthyizm
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Thanks for your thoughts. Where do you see our defense hurting him?
3/12/2012 5:27 PM
MikeT23
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Your .982 % is below league average and .985 is about "normal".     You have 12 negative plays 1/3 of the way thru the season.    That will put you at about 36 at season's end.  Anything over 20 is unacceptable, IMO.
3/12/2012 5:48 PM
gjello10
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36 mnus plays is pretty average- not poor at all.  In Mantle last season, then mean was 37 minus plays, the median was 35, and just 6 clubs had fewer than 24.  His D doesn't seem to be helping him, but i can't imagine it hurting him more than the Burlington park factor is helping him.  I'm just gonna go with small sample size on this one until I see another season and a half without improvement.     
3/12/2012 6:09 PM
MikeT23
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36 minus plays is horrible.   If you find it acceptable, good for you.  It's not.

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=431983&Page=6

3/12/2012 6:13 PM
gjello10
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/12/2012 6:13:00 PM (view original):

36 minus plays is horrible.   If you find it acceptable, good for you.  It's not.

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=431983&Page=6

Well that was a tad hostile and off-topic.  I didn't say it was acceptable.  I said it was average.  Which it is.  The mean is his world the past 2 seasons was 33 and 40.  This year so far, it's 11.  He's at 12, and he's above league average in plus plays.  With a league average defense, in Burlington, that guy should easily be a top-15 ERA SP in the AL.  But he's far outside that.  I'm chalking it up to a small sample size.

If his defense is a 36-minus-play defense, and 20 is acceptable to you, that's a difference of 1 minus play per 10 games or 90 innings.  Over 307 career innings, this guy has suffered 3.5 additional minus plays over your 20-minus-play acceptable defense.  Is that the primary culprit for this guy's ERA?  He has 3 other pitchers in the AL's top-10 in ERA at the moment, one of whom is way worse than the guy he asked about.  Is his defense killing them?

Defense is important.  The OP should strive to improve his.  But I'll still stick with small sample size on this particular player.  He's a 3.75 ERA pitcher easy in Burlington, even with that kind of defense.
3/12/2012 6:45 PM
MikeT23
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Wasn't meant to be hostile.  It wasn't off-topic.    36 negative plays is horrible.    20 is only acceptable because it's going to happen(P negative plays kill me).

300 innings over a season and a half stops being a SSS.  

If I had to guess, and just throw away any defensive possibilities, I'd say in-game fatigue is wearing him out.    Low pull rating, I'm sure, + 130 pitches is rough.   I'd lower his PC to 110 and see what happens.
3/12/2012 6:52 PM
dedelman
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/12/2012 6:52:00 PM (view original):
Wasn't meant to be hostile.  It wasn't off-topic.    36 negative plays is horrible.    20 is only acceptable because it's going to happen(P negative plays kill me).

300 innings over a season and a half stops being a SSS.  

If I had to guess, and just throw away any defensive possibilities, I'd say in-game fatigue is wearing him out.    Low pull rating, I'm sure, + 130 pitches is rough.   I'd lower his PC to 110 and see what happens.
Just what I was about to post.  Darn your quicker typing.
3/12/2012 6:57 PM
gjello10
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/12/2012 6:52:00 PM (view original):
Wasn't meant to be hostile.  It wasn't off-topic.    36 negative plays is horrible.    20 is only acceptable because it's going to happen(P negative plays kill me).

300 innings over a season and a half stops being a SSS.  

If I had to guess, and just throw away any defensive possibilities, I'd say in-game fatigue is wearing him out.    Low pull rating, I'm sure, + 130 pitches is rough.   I'd lower his PC to 110 and see what happens.
Appologies if I took that the wrong way. Now you're talking. Pitch count and pull rating could indeed be culprits in this case.

And you are SO right about P minus plays. In Mantle last season, 10 of my 33 minus plays were by pitchers. ****** me off big time.
3/12/2012 7:24 PM
MikeT23
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Last season in Hamilton I was 95/2.   The two:  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Wilson Nixon
3/12/2012 7:26 PM
mccarthyizm
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Thanks for your thoughts, guys. We'll take his pitch count down and hope that he comes around. But just to make sure I understand what you're suggesting:

Even though he has a crazy combination of stamina and durability, Ontiveros could be struggling because he's not able to remain effective at high pitch counts? As in, he can handle the pitch count from a dur/sta standpoint but he can't excel over that many pitches from a performance standpoint?


3/12/2012 11:52 PM
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