So, how much does a bad loss - a really bad loss - impact seeding for NT purposes? Perhaps as much as it should.

Please note, I'm really not complaining about my seed; this just seemed like a rare chance to see what happens when an otherwise good-to-very-good team drops a game to a very bad team.

So - Hamline.

Began the season ranked #12, and played this schedule.

Now, the loss to Texas-Tyler was a somewhat bad one, but I'm pretty sure it is the loss to Concordia, Moorhead that killed my season (for NT seeding purposes). And I think it should have. It certainly kept me from getting any top 25 votes.

Haven't had time to analyze it closely yet, but just wanted to put it out there, because how often do you see a team go 4-2 against the top 25 and 1-1 against one of the worst D3 teams? 

Brent, what seed did you end up getting?  And what do you think you would have gotten had you not dropped the game to Concordia?  In other words, how much do you think that bad loss cost you seeding-wise?  Curious as to what you and others think a bad loss is "worth"?

Considering everyone in your half of the bracket got upset except you, I'd say it worked out pretty well.

I ended up getting a #7 seed.

I think, had I been 23-5, with only a questionable loss to Texas-Tyler and 4 losses to 20+ win tournament teams, my 4 wins vs (then-ranked) teams plus a perfect conference and conference title would probably have earned a #4 seed, give or take one.

So, that single (very) bad was probably worth at least 2 spots and maybe up to 4? Not sure of that, of course, but that's what it looks like to me.

And it might work out, tkimble, but for the fact I now have to play a team (hopefully teams) that just knocked off a top team.

How on earth did you lose that game...at home...that's crazy.

Posted by colonels19 on 6/20/2012 11:24:00 AM (view original):
How on earth did you lose that game...at home...that's crazy.

And you thought YOUR loss several months ago was a joke....

lol, I'll never forget that Montevallo loss when I was at Armstrong Atlantic State, and that was early 2010...that was the only game that team won that year lol.

Can we do a play-by-play case study of that loss?

What is crazier is that the SIM AI won with 7 guys and Hamline was running uptempo...

By looking at all the scores, I would put this team in a 6th or 7th seed.  It would have been 10th or 11th but you did have three early wins against Dennison, Greensboro and Nebraska Wesleyan to salvage your seed.

The problem is that this was basically a 5-5 team that then went and played some really bad conference teams. So it is hard to determine where this team should be.  The conf schedule isnt your fault but it is still a bad conference.

Did you double Johnston? and +4 is a bit egregious to me...I rarely venture into the extremes in gameplanning, even if they're chucking 31 threes.

trying to post this from the phone- we'll see how it goes.

The loss was a combination of my own hubris/stupidity and some incredibly bad luck. I don't recall offhand whether I doubled Johnson, but the +4 was a function of halftime adjustments (since I was losing). I began the game at the more moderate +2.

Posted by paland on 6/21/2012 11:43:00 AM (view original):
By looking at all the scores, I would put this team in a 6th or 7th seed.  It would have been 10th or 11th but you did have three early wins against Dennison, Greensboro and Nebraska Wesleyan to salvage your seed.

The problem is that this was basically a 5-5 team that then went and played some really bad conference teams. So it is hard to determine where this team should be.  The conf schedule isnt your fault but it is still a bad conference.

We certainly played some very poor conference teams, but the comment that this team was basically a 5-5 OOC team is meaningless without context. 4 of our 5 OOC losses were to top teams, and those "early wins" that we get some credit for were also against top teams. I've made a point of playing challenging OOC games to (somewhat) make up for Sims in conference, and while above .500 is obviously better, 5-5 vs that level of competition can still lead to a good NT seed (barring the conference stumble).