Promotion Question Topic

jkenned
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Just took over a squad in Buckner and moved them to Colorado because I want to see what kind of numbers Felipe Lopez can put up in Coors field. http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4637753

My question is where should I start him out. He has all the splits to be an effective masher at 1B for me in the ML, but am I better off moving him to AA or AAA and tyring to extend his developement? He spent last season at Low A and mashed .340/65/192 with a 1.173 OPS and I think he could come in immediately and be .290/45/120 as a rookie or am I wrong?
7/4/2012 11:29 AM
burnsy483
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First of all, ignore minor league numbers, unless you're using them to compare to your other minor leaguers in the same level.  And even then, mostly ignore them.

If it's me, I'd move him to AA this year, AAA next year, and then bring him up the year after.  But if you're wondering if he's a ML hitter right now, the answer is yes.  I'd just let him develop more in the minors and get the most you can out of him while he's in your control.

7/4/2012 11:34 AM
jkenned
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Thanks burnsy, my initial thought was to move him to AA, but I have only one legit position player at the Big league level and could certainly use the middle of the order presence, which is why I asked.
7/4/2012 12:57 PM
burnsy483
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You can probably find a guy who can hit pretty well to play 1st base in free agency.
7/4/2012 2:04 PM
lccooler
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He's definitely able to hit in the majors right now. If you don't want to move him to the big leagues right now, place him in whatever league you have a better HC.
7/4/2012 4:20 PM
keithjs
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He's 22 and probably won't develop much more.  I'd put him in AAA, then promote to the majors after the 20 game point. That way you can maximize his big league production while he's still under your control. 
7/4/2012 10:11 PM
mezirah
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Hi-jacking this thread. I have a quick question. If I have a short stop with options left that I don't want to use any more. Can i demote him to AAA right now to avoid paying him BL money next year? My world is currently playing in the WS and I'm looking over demotions and promotions.

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3183063
7/4/2012 10:33 PM
zbrent716
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Posted by keithjs on 7/4/2012 10:11:00 PM (view original):
He's 22 and probably won't develop much more.  I'd put him in AAA, then promote to the majors after the 20 game point. That way you can maximize his big league production while he's still under your control. 
He has a good deal more development left. More than the 22 years of age, look at his experience (1 season) and his first year jumps. You can generally project based on those two numbers, and I'd expect considerable additional increase from this guy.
7/5/2012 4:30 PM
keithjs
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Posted by zbrent716 on 7/5/2012 4:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by keithjs on 7/4/2012 10:11:00 PM (view original):
He's 22 and probably won't develop much more.  I'd put him in AAA, then promote to the majors after the 20 game point. That way you can maximize his big league production while he's still under your control. 
He has a good deal more development left. More than the 22 years of age, look at his experience (1 season) and his first year jumps. You can generally project based on those two numbers, and I'd expect considerable additional increase from this guy.
You can't use the standard formula on a 22 year old IFA because they will develop very little after 22.  if you expect a "considerable" increase from this guy, then I would recommend that anyone in your league immediately start offering you 22 year old IFA's in trade offers.
7/6/2012 10:44 AM
zbrent716
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Posted by keithjs on 7/6/2012 10:44:00 AM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 7/5/2012 4:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by keithjs on 7/4/2012 10:11:00 PM (view original):
He's 22 and probably won't develop much more.  I'd put him in AAA, then promote to the majors after the 20 game point. That way you can maximize his big league production while he's still under your control. 
He has a good deal more development left. More than the 22 years of age, look at his experience (1 season) and his first year jumps. You can generally project based on those two numbers, and I'd expect considerable additional increase from this guy.
You can't use the standard formula on a 22 year old IFA because they will develop very little after 22.  if you expect a "considerable" increase from this guy, then I would recommend that anyone in your league immediately start offering you 22 year old IFA's in trade offers.
OK, keithjs. I'll defer to your experience, success, and judgment here.

And if we're ever in a World together, feel free to offer me your good players with 1 year experience who you feel are done developing.

EDIT: And, to your original point, promoting him after 20 games this season is likely not the way to "maximize his big league production while he's still under your control." Not to say he shouldn't promote him this season (20 games in), based on other considerations, but if he's merely concerned with getting the most possible ML production from the guy (in total) before he goes FA, he should have at least 1 more year of MiL development. 
7/6/2012 12:12 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vic James  Signed at 23.   A little different but he never got much better.
7/6/2012 12:23 PM
MikeT23
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Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bernie Diaz  Signed at 21.

Older IFA don't do much developing in many cases.
7/6/2012 12:24 PM
zbrent716
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Posted by MikeT23 on 7/6/2012 12:24:00 PM (view original):
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bernie Diaz  Signed at 21.

Older IFA don't do much developing in many cases.
Signed S16, between S17 and S18, he added 1 pt vRH, 2 pts vLH, 1 pt contact, etc. His development thereafter is in line with what I'd expect (not much).

The OP's guy was signed S22, between S23 and S24, he added 5 pts contact, 5 points vLH, 5 points vRH, etc. If you expect his further development to mirror Diaz, I think you are mistaken.
7/6/2012 12:32 PM
tecwrg
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Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Yunel Pujols

Signed at age 20.  Development is close to petered out at age 22.

7/6/2012 12:36 PM
zbrent716
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Is 18 better than 21? Absolutely. (That's not intended to sound dirty).

But, I think the blanket rule that age trumps experience (also open to misinterpretation) when predicting performance and development is over-stated.
7/6/2012 12:42 PM
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