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Defense Topic

dlmose

Posts: 311 (0)

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I've always placed a high value on defense and try to exceed simmys recs at every position. This guy cropped up on the world highlight box in League Leaders: Poor Plays (1B) Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Willie O'Keefe He has had 236 minus plays in around 11,817 innings, but with a .997 FA. In 12 years he also has a .287 bat. ave. w/395 HR and almost 1200 RBI's. His range is 8 with a 20 glove. That combination leading to a .997 FA makes me question my whole philosophy of seeing any value in solid defense. What's the deal?

7/31/2014 7:11 AM

tecwrg

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You still want good defense, especially at 1B.

A quick spot check of the games in which this guy made poor plays . . . all were on base hits to RF. I looked at 5 or 6 of his poor plays, they were ground ball singles to RF, a bloop single to RF, and a double down the RF line.

That's all due to his poor range. His poor defense is giving up an additional 20-25 hits a season, which otherwise may have been outs. Those additional hits are sometimes turning into runs, and those additional runs may be turning into losses.

This guy needs to either be a DH (where he can do no defensive harm), or you can "hide" a guy like him in RF (see MikeT's "The Rightfielder" thread).

7/31/2014 7:24 AM

sergei91

Posts: 5950 (0)

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13 2 2 275 115

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fa is not a great measuring stick. willie's a dh/crappy catcher as far as defensive ratings. his range is bad so he won't get to balls that other catchers will, therefore he doesn't get an error charged to him, he just makes a minus play instead.

7/31/2014 7:26 AM

tecwrg

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I think MikeT also gave a good rule of thumb in another recent thread. Treat negative plays as errors. Then recalculate his fielding percentage and decide if that's the kind of defense you would want at first base, and if it's helping or hurting your team.

7/31/2014 7:26 AM

sergei91

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i totally missed the 1b thing. yeah, agree with tec. if you're using him as a first baseman he's gonna miss lots of balls there

7/31/2014 7:27 AM

MikeT23

Posts: 58012 (0)

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I use a simple formula to determine effectiveness at a position(1B is a little different because I don't count putouts). Assists+plus plays-errors-negative plays/162. I call it Positive Player Per Season:

Your guy is #1. A bad 1B(30ish across the board) is #2. A very good 1B(could play LF) is #3. An average 1B is #4.

inn	po	A	e	Plus	neg	Total	PPPS
11817	12243	803	43	1	236	0.044	64.8
7340	7197	466	17	3	32	0.057	83.4
1390	1454	114	2	34	0	0.105	153.1
11516	12218	823	21	154	3	0.083	120.7

Essentially, your guy is twice as bad as an average 1B. And 30% worse than a bad 1B.

7/31/2014 8:40 AM

MikeT23

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To put a little more perspective to it, here's the last three seasons of my 1B in MG(Lazzeri is #2 on the previous post)

		inn	po	A	e	Plus	neg	Total	PPPS
Jose Pena	1B	435.1	448	41	0	10	0	0.117	170.9
Vic Barajas	1B	231.2	254	18	0	5	0	0.099	145.0
Gabe Schneider	1B	196.2	202	15	0	3	0	0.092	133.8
Juan Almonte	1B	187.1	197	15	1	3	0	0.091	132.5
Ezdra Escuela	1B	254	270	18	2	5	0	0.083	120.5
Juan Almonte	1B	786.1	762	54	1	10	0	0.080	116.8
Ezdra Escuela	1B	235.2	248	15	0	3	0	0.077	111.6
Emmanuel Welch	1B	253.1	276	17	0	2	0	0.075	109.5
Juan Almonte	1B	494.2	537	33	0	2	0	0.071	103.3
Cecil Lazzeri	1B	518.2	549	34	1	0	2	0.060	87.2
Cecil Lazzeri	1B	382.2	410	22	0	0	3	0.050	72.5

Pena, Almonte, Escuela and Schneider at COF capable. Barajas plays 2B.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ezdra Escuela
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Juan Almonte
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Jose Pena
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vic Barajas
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Cecil Lazzeri
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Gabe Schneider

7/31/2014 8:52 AM

googooman

Posts: 55 (0)

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91 1 1 172 4 209

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What I always wonder about is: if you compare two shortstops, one with 5.0 range and the other with 5.5 range, does that reflect that the one with the lower rating "gives up more hits" that are in addition to a higher/different number of minus plays?

7/31/2014 9:16 AM

MikeT23

Posts: 58012 (0)

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I'm not sure we know that. The lower RF guy obviously makes less plays. You have to work with the stats we're given. I suppose you could "work backwards" and figure out, if you added the negative plays and subtracted the positive plays of both players, where the new RF would fall. Still don't know how accurate that would be but it might shed some light on the situation.

7/31/2014 9:24 AM

tecwrg

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You also have to consider the pitching staffs who the two shortstops play behind. If one staff is more of a ground ball staff than the other, it follows that their SS will have more opportunities which will in turn increase his range factor.

7/31/2014 9:33 AM

MikeT23

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Very small sample size but I'm going to say no. Here's two of my C in RF guys.

		inn	po	A	e	Plus	neg	Total	PPPS
Kevin Ryu	RF	6649	927	28	42	0	102	0.122	177.8
		6649	1029	28	42	0	0	0.153	222.6

Matt Coghlan	RF	901.1	126	4	7	0	12	0.123	179.6
		901.1	134	4	7	0	0	0.145	212.0

The first line is there actual career stats. The 2nd line is negative plays turned into putouts. I've ran hundreds of RF thru my PPPS formula and almost all fall between 210 and 230 given enough playing time. Both of these guys, with the negative plays removed, fit right in.

7/31/2014 9:48 AM

topoftheworl

Posts: 547 (0)

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Posted by MikeT23 on 7/31/2014 8:40:00 AM (view original):
I use a simple formula to determine effectiveness at a position(1B is a little different because I don't count putouts).   Assists+plus plays-errors-negative plays/162. I call it Positive Player Per Season:

Your guy is #1.   A bad 1B(30ish across the board) is #2. A very good 1B(could play LF) is #3.   An average 1B is #4.

inn

po

A

e

Plus

neg

Total

PPPS

11817

12243

803

43

1

236

0.044

64.8

7340

7197

466

17

3

32

0.057

83.4

1390

1454

114

2

34

0

0.105

153.1

11516

12218

823

21

154

3

0.083

120.7

Essentially, your guy is twice as bad as an average 1B.   And 30% worse than a bad 1B.

Just to make sure I understand, is your formula saying that he is responsible for 55ish less outs over a season than a typical 1B? Prima facia that seems high, but if the numbers bare it out, they bare it out.

7/31/2014 4:19 PM

MikeT23

Posts: 58012 (0)

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Yes. Based on 162 games played, 9 innings each game. Both the first and 4th guy have played about 1300 games. Assists are pretty close but #1 has cost his team 278 outs while player 4 has given his team 130. Roughly 8 seasons, 408 outs. If you take into account the extra 300 innings and 20 less assists, you've got just under 55 per.

7/31/2014 4:43 PM

topoftheworl

Posts: 547 (0)

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That's a lot of outs. My back of the envelope calculation is that you would need about 200 points of OPS to make up for that. These outs aren't fungible like say a rangy CF who might "steal" putouts from an RF or LF. I guess I'm using COF'ers for my first basemen from this point forward. I understand we are comparing it to a out of position 1B, but still, the number are bigger than I expected.

7/31/2014 5:46 PM

MikeT23

Posts: 58012 (0)

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2 games of outs. More than my failed C in RF costs me when compared to a GG RF.

7/31/2014 5:56 PM

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