Figuring out how to do projections Topic

sjpoker
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In fantasy baseball I have been very good with projections in dynasty leagues over the years.

Here - in my first season, I have yet to figure it out and its apparent that ADV is pretty useless - even with a $14 million budget. Plus, all of the veteran owners who are the top of the standings aren't even spending a dime on it.

So -

I have a player who seems to be a very good prospect, but I am not sure how I would approach projections here.

He's 22.



ADV shows him realizing some decent gains with the glove. For batting, hitting vs righties and power seem to be topped out.

So what is the methodology you guys use to figure out what this guy would gain in hitting vs lefties, patience, and baserunning here?

Sean



1/18/2015 8:33 AM
tecwrg
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You won't really being able to project until he has a couple of full seasons of development already behind him.

But when he has that, you can then trend, in individual ratings, how much growth he has had from season to season.  So if his vsR split grows 6 points from S1 to S2, and 4 points from S2 to S3, you can probably project another 2 points of growth from S3 to S4, any maybe another 2 points or so total in future seasons.

1/18/2015 8:38 AM
dedelman
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Key elements of projecting this particular guy:
1) He's an international.  International players develop like high school players of the same age, not the same experience.  Since most HS players are about done developing by the time they reach age 22 (their 4th full pro season), 22 year old internationals often develop very little or not at all. If you had drafted him out of college at age 21 last season you would expect more development.
2) You have a credible major league FC (FI 85, patience 50, discipline 25) and a credible AA hitting coach (Hit 63, patience/discipline both 46).  So it's not the lack of coaching that's making him fail to develop.
3) You're playing him every day, so it's not lack of PT that's stopping him.
4) Spring training is usually a time for slightly accelerated development; players that don't develop during spring training (unless injured or not on the ST roster) essentially never develop more than a tiny bit after that.

So while tec is right that you can't get a clear picture of most players'  development until they've got a season and a half or so under their belt, you have some VERY strong clues that this guy is going to develop no more than a point or two in each category, and likely less-- it's at least 50/50 that he's done.

Not a prospect; a AAA LF.  Sorry.
1/18/2015 11:23 AM
MikeT23
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To me, the most telling sign is that he hasn't developed, at all, this season.   That's a bad omen.
1/18/2015 11:30 AM
sjpoker
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Ok, now that makes sense. So figure on a 4, maybe 5 year development cycle, with a 50% regression in improvement each year. Obviously this is not for all players, but sort of as a baseline. Am I on the right track here?
1/19/2015 8:25 AM
MikeT23
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Yes.   9-5-3-2-maybe sort of thing.    Not exact.
1/19/2015 9:07 AM
themergerguy
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I'll usually take the 1st year of development and multiply by 2.5.

That usually gets pretty close to where he'll max out.

I don't care what the increments are, I just want to know where he'll end up and after his first full season I have a pretty good idea by doing that simple formula.
1/19/2015 5:43 PM
frymaster99
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Posted by themergerguy on 1/19/2015 5:43:00 PM (view original):
I'll usually take the 1st year of development and multiply by 2.5.

That usually gets pretty close to where he'll max out.

I don't care what the increments are, I just want to know where he'll end up and after his first full season I have a pretty good idea by doing that simple formula.
So my 20-year-old who gained 10 points overall in his first season last year will gain roughly 25 total until he plateaus?
1/19/2015 8:32 PM
themergerguy
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Posted by frymaster99 on 1/19/2015 8:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by themergerguy on 1/19/2015 5:43:00 PM (view original):
I'll usually take the 1st year of development and multiply by 2.5.

That usually gets pretty close to where he'll max out.

I don't care what the increments are, I just want to know where he'll end up and after his first full season I have a pretty good idea by doing that simple formula.
So my 20-year-old who gained 10 points overall in his first season last year will gain roughly 25 total until he plateaus?
Not OVR but in individual ratings.

For instance if he gained 10 total in Contact I would expect 15 more to be his peak for Contact. 
1/19/2015 10:00 PM
a_ersberg
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If you have the time or interest you could try to find similar 22 yr old ifa's in your world, to see how they progressed. 22 yr olds don't gain a whole hell of a lot though, their development is almost done
1/19/2015 10:25 PM
MikeT23
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Here's an example of how neither "system" is perfect:

First full season development:
Control 65-71
VL  44-50
VR  56-62

I'd have expected this:
C   77-79
VL 56-58
VR 68-70

x 2.5 would have ended up here:
C 80
VL 59
VR 71

Peak:
C  85
VL  58
VR  77

Both systems missed by quite a bit on Control and VR.
1/20/2015 8:51 AM
MikeT23
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Sorry, this was the pitcher.    Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Javy Gutierrez
1/20/2015 8:52 AM
frymaster99
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x2.5 would've yielded 86 control, 65 vsL and 77 vsR. But in his post he said if it gains 10 points he'd expect 15 more which is only 1.5x, not 2.5.
1/20/2015 4:14 PM
MikeT23
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I believe the 2.5 refers to first season ratings not after first season improvement.    10 x 2.5 = 25 - 10 = 15

1/20/2015 4:43 PM
themergerguy
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/20/2015 4:43:00 PM (view original):

I believe the 2.5 refers to first season ratings not after first season improvement.    10 x 2.5 = 25 - 10 = 15

correct!
1/20/2015 5:11 PM
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