Who do you guys find to be the biggest crapshoot in the SIM? I say 2007 Chone Figgins. I haven't drafted him for quite a while now, but of all the well known cookies, he's the hardest one to figure out, good or bad. I've had him hit in high .300s or low .200s. Most guys seem so much easier to call, from my experience.

I don't know about OL's or their cookies, but in Progs or Theme leagues the biggest enigma for me has been 1979 Jim Kern.

His (+) numbers and (#) numbers are incredible, however, whenever I've had him on prog teams(twice) or the once in a $80M theme, he defecated where he slept.

Well that's fairly descriptive

Koji Uehara is a huge crapshoot for me. 4+ mil RP with OAV+ and WHIP+ in the 200s but always has an 6+ ERA with me except for one year

For me, it's Norm Charlton.

In theme league it's 1919 Ruth

In any league I've ever played in, it's always been Yogi Berra (any season)...

I've always seen extreme variations from Rogers Hornsby and Eddie Collins.

I don't play many OLs, so I had no idea 2007 Chone Figgins was a "cookie."  I'm using him now in an OL, first time ever for me.  After 94 PA (extremely small sample size, I know) he's put together a pretty nifty line of .442/.489/.535.  His performance history (2300+ usages) shows him with an average line of .322/.383/.406 -- at under $3.6M, I can see now why he's a cookie.

The player who always disappoints me is 2000 Pedro.  Among pitchers in the database with 200 or more innings, he's tops in ERC# , WHIP#, OAV# and of course $/IP.  He's never horrible, exactly, but he never seems to dominate.  And with those numbers, he should.

2007 Figgins has always performed well for me. Am using him right now in a $120m cap theme. We've played 86 games and he's at 284 PAs, .311/.377/.389 with 18 steals vs. 4 cs. Does have 7 - plays, which I expect. I'm trying him out in this higher cap to see how he does. In lower cap themes (90-100m) he's always done well. Never really considered him a cookie, but like crazy, I don't play in more than a couple/three Open Leagues per year.

Again, like crazy says, the 2000 Pedro never meets my expectations. I must be insane, as I fit the old adage of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. In this case the "same thing" is using Pedro at various caps only to be disappointed.

Outside of a (very) few outliers, the entire 1950s seem to be a vast wasteland of under achieving pitchers and hitters. I've tried a few different 1950s Robin Roberts iterations at pitcher friendly parks (like his low bb/9#) and he gets rocked everywhere. Most of his "good years" are in the $29-30k $/ip range with a ERC#s around 2.5 so he would appear to be a decent value.

Pedro's HR/9 is garbage, which ends up causing him to underperform for what his $/IP would suggest.

There are many many many players who "underachieve" in the sense of not giving value that is anywhere comparable to what you could get by spending the same amount of many elsewhere.

But as for crapshoots, i.e. guys whose performance just seems to vary a lot, I don't think that's anything other than small sample size.  Period.  Unless you are routinely putting players in situations that they are not suited for (modern HR hitters in Petco, using guys at the wrong cap, etc.)

And to that point, where I see the most variability is in pitchers with fewer than 75 IP.  For a simple reason - all it takes is 1 bad inning (say, 4 earned runs in 1/3 IP) and his ERA is torched for the season.  I'll still take Milacki over just about any other pitcher under $1.5M, but I know that doesn't mean I'm going to get a sub-2.00 ERA from him every time.

Well, the example I used with Figgins is by using him in predominantly the same park time & again, or a similar park. Though lately I've gone with other parks & haven't used him in over a year, I often see multiple owners with him at Petco, with very different results. But, that's from my experience & observation.

I play a lot of $100-$150 theme leagues and hands down the worst position player to never live up to my expectations is Hornsby, his numbers were insane but I can't remember ever having an "as expected" season from him, always a let down. I agree with the Pedro nomination, for having (IMO) the best numbers across the board for a SP but rarely ever do I see 20-5 or even 15-5 seasons from him. His in season stats seem to always be among the leaders but I think with his $/IP being so high it takes away from somewhere else when building a winning team. I actually have him on a team now for the first time in a long time, it's early but he's looking great so far. Helton is another name that comes to mind as a dog. Schmidt usually gets his HRs but never is anywhere close to a decent AVG. Other than the MONSTER Brett season his others seems to come in under the bar.