Posted by schwarze on 7/28/2021 2:52:00 PM (view original):
So far, where you picked within a franchise has had very little effect on your W-L record. If you were the first person to select a team from a given franchise, your expected wins is 10.4 (thru 20 games). If you were the last person (24th) to select a team within a franchise, your expected wins is 9.6. The correlation coefficient is +0.10. Zero would mean no correlation.
The correlation coefficient (thru 41 games) did increase a bit, to +0.17. The difference between picking 1st and 24th within a league is roughly 2.4 wins (i.e., 21.7 wins vs 19.3 wins).
There are three top 10 overall teams that were picked in the 20's...
"1955-85" (Yankees), 28-13 record, picked 22nd overall by thejuice6
"CWS 1901-1955", 28-13 record, picked 23rd overall by SteveIzzy
"09-37 Pete and Re-Pete" (Cubs), 27-14 record, picked 22nd overall by redcped
Being the first person to pick a team does not guarantee success...
"1993-2020 Braves", 15-26 record, picked 1st by toysboys
"OAK 1932-2003", 13-28 record, picked 1st by pmars2001
Actually, there is virtually no difference between picking 5th and 20th.
Picks #5 thru 8: Avg wins 20.4
Picks #9 thru 12: Avg wins 20.2
Picks #13 thru 16: Avg wins 20.5
Picks #17 thru 20: Avg wins 20.6