So lets say you have a very low amount of dollars invested in HS or College players for the amateur draft.

Is it relatively safe to assume that any player who says he will only sign if drafted in the first round would still be a reasonable pick in round one?

I'd be very wary of doing that. I've seen some prospects with a very over-inflated sense of self-worth with that message get drafted in rounds 5+ and not even be worth it there (though they of course don't sign).

for example: You have much higher college scouting than HS scouting. Is it worth it to gamble on HS guys who have 1st round demands assuming they have first round talent, instead of taking college guys who you really don't like what the scouts projection is?

Based on my experience, no. Every season I see guys who say that and I think to myself "good luck with that". I've seen guys with no possible ML future (barring a DITR boost) make that demand. It's maybe not "common" that worthless players make that demand, but it's common enough that I think you'd be better off taking your scouts opinions on their ratings rather than use the demand to rank your prospects.

Short of some glitch I'm not aware of, you have to roll the dice if you don't have enough in amateur scouting. It's not like international where you can use their demands as a rough estimate of their level of talent.

My experience with those guys (regardless of your scouting budgets) is that if they say they want to be drafted in Round 1, if you draft them in Round 1 they'll sign (although they'll wait around for awhile and sometimes ask for more $).

What I don't know is exactly what they consider to be "Round 1" (don't know whether they'll sign if you take them with a FA compensation "sandwich" pick).

Quote: Originally Posted By drisco13 on 9/23/2009
for example: You have much higher college scouting than HS scouting. Is it worth it to gamble on HS guys who have 1st round demands assuming they have first round talent, instead of taking college guys who you really don't like what the scouts projection is?

If the alternative is a college guy you don't like, then there isn't much to lose. Maybe you get lucky. But the correlation between guys who make first-round demands and guys who actually have first round talent seems to be low. In your scenario, I wouldn't pass up a college guy who is definitely 1st-round talent trying to gamble for a HS guy I'm not sure of, just because the HS guy is demanding he be picked in the 1st round. I can definitely say that.

Quote: Originally Posted By cmthieme on 9/23/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By drisco13 on 9/23/2009

for example: You have much higher college scouting than HS scouting. Is it worth it to gamble on HS guys who have 1st round demands assuming they have first round talent, instead of taking college guys who you really don't like what the scouts projection is?

If the alternative is a college guy you don't like, then there isn't much to lose. Maybe you get lucky. But the correlation between guys who make first-round demands and guys who actually have first round talent seems to be low. In your scenario, I wouldn't pass up a college guy who is definitely 1st-round talent trying to gamble for a HS guy I'm not sure of, just because the HS guy is demanding he be picked in the 1st round. I can definitely say that

If you really somehow you can't find any college guy that you like, I'd consider taking the best guy who probably won't sign in the first round and then take your chances with the "D" pick next season.

A better idea than simply taking a shot in the dark like you're suggesting is to pick the guy with the best Current Ratings from HS.

How much are you spending on each scouting though?

Lets say you have HS scouting set at 8. A HS player projects at 92 overall. Obviously the guy isn't really a 92, but what is the likliness that he is at least an 80 overall?

Depends, what are his current ratings?

I have considered taking the unsignable guy. I also understand that everyone sees different prospects, so since I pick is at #9 there is a small chance that I get the guy at the top of my draft board.

My HS is 6, my college at 14. There are about 4 guys I like on my board for #9 overall. Then I have an unsignable guy ranked #5. After that I'm dealing with guys in the 75 overall range. I'm just tossing some questions out there to find out what others have experienced. There is a HS guy out there ranked in the low 90s, but obviously I can't trust my scouts.

Thanks Spudpicker. I hadn't thought about going by the current ranking.

Let's say this:

If you have a low amount of scouting in one type(HS, for instance) and a higher amount in scouting of the other type(college, for instance), there is really no point in taking a HS player unless he's got some really good current ratings.

Otherwise, you're just ******* away scouting. Next season, go 0/0. Because you seem intent on ignoring what your scouts are saying.

Having 4 guys you really like at #9 IMO gives you a solid shot at landing one of those 4, so I wouldn't worry too much.

But as Mike pointed out, at this point unless the other college players aren't worth having in the ML, you're best off going with one of them than risking your pick.

Can't go 0/0 next season Mike ... An established player such as you should know that you can only drop by 4 each season, otherwise my HS scouting would have been 0.