Two otherwise identical pitchers have the following pitch selections available:

Pitcher #1: P1 - 74; P2 - 70; P3 - 50
Pitcher #2: P1 - 82; P2 - 65; P3 - 59; P4 - 49; P5 - 35

Which would you expect to be more effective? (And why)

I thought a similar question had been raised in one of the developer chats, but I've been unable to find it so if you could refer me to it I would greatly appreciate it.

i'd take #1, without the bad pitches. it's close, though. the idea of the second guy grooving 49s and 35s, with some 59s thrown in, is hard to stomach.

Supposedly , having a 4th or 5th bad pitch isn't that bad because WIS claims that those pitches will aid the pitcher in being able to throw the hitter off balance. I'd probably take the 2nd pitcher because the 82 pitch will be a great help to him and the 65 and 59 pitches will be decent. When you think about it, the first guy's 3rd pitch is a 50 and the 2nd guy's 4th pitch is a 49 which is practically a wash-- but the 2nd guy has 4 average-to-above-average pitches while the 1st guy only has 3. I think that outweighs the 5th pitch of 35 (which, to be frank, isn't terrible for a 5th pitch since many are in the 20s or low 30s).

Prez, I was also under the impression that WIS made that claim, but wasn't able to locate it. Do you happen to recall where you've read/heard it?

Well here's it's hinted that certain pitchers have advantages from lower rated pitches, which can be "show-me" pitches:

One of my Ace starters has his 5th pitch rated at 18. In 10 seasons I've had the best pitching coach in the world on couple of occasions but he did not drop that 5th pitch. Better yet, why is he even trying to throw this pitch knowing he has 4 better ones to chose from? ( color="#2981c0" radek - Hall of Famer - 3:24 PM)

A pitching coach makes the decision whether having a pitch helps or hinders a pitcher based on his overall number and grades of pitches. If it makes more sense to keep a pitch (a show-me pitch), then it won't be dropped.





Here they say that more pitches is better, but that "very bad pitches" can be a hindrance:

is it better to have a pitch with a bad rating or not have that pitch at all? Is 80 75 12 12 0 better tham 80 75 0 0 0? ( color="#2981c0" WiredTiger - All*Star - 1:21 PM)

The more pitches a pitcher has the harder it is for the batter to guess what pitch will be thrown next. However, very bad pitches, like the one you gave as an example, would be better off getting dropped. On the flip side, if that pitch is around 50 it would be more beneficial for that pitch to be thrown.





However, this response seems to indicate that poor pitches are always a bad thing:

Can you explain a little more about the relationship between the number of pitches a pitcher has and the quality of his pitches. ( color="#2981c0" swamphawk22 - Hall of Famer - 3:45 PM)

A pitcher with 3 80-rated pitches has an advantage over a pitcher with 2 80-rated pitches. It depends on the quality of pitches. A guy with a dominant #1 pitch and two average secondary pitches will be better than a guy with 3 average pitches. It works like how you'd expect. A guy who continues to include a very weak pitch will give up the homer more often. A good pitching coach will get that guy to drop the weak pitch, making him a better pitcher. This typically occurs in the offseason.



So in essence... I dunno. Seems like WIS has given a lot of different responses on the subject...

I have a prospect who has average control (projected 57), semi decent splits (68 - 81) but has 5 pitches.

They're 100-63-60-58-49

And he is tearing up the minors, has only allowed 7 HR's in 200 innings pitched and has a .229 OAV, .306 OBP, .292 SLG and 2.76 ERA

And he's only 19 years old, Im interested to see how he does in the majors

I would take pitcher #2, assuming a good PC catcher.

Pitcher 2 is far and away better, assuming he's a starter.

Pitcher 1 is far and away better, assuming he's a reliever.

Pitcher 2 can get through a lineup 3 times, with enough pitch variety and quality to fool the majority of the opposing lineup a majority of the time, with a few strikeouts (0.6?) mixed in (assuming the proper levels of control, splits, velocity, etc.)

Pitcher 1 is better when he only needs to face guys once or at most twice, but he'll (assuming good other ratings) probably allow less baserunners and strikeout about .8K/9, which is really a minimum expectation of an RP.

Quote: Originally posted by sanderbear on 12/14/2009I would take pitcher #2, assuming a good PC catcher.

Good PC catcher has nothing to do with it, PC is a OAV modifier, nothing to do with pitch selection

All that said, I think I'd take pitcher 2, but it's close...

Quote: Originally posted by soxfan121 on 12/15/2009Pitcher 2 is far and away better, assuming he's a starter.

Pitcher 1 is far and away better, assuming he's a reliever.

Pitcher 2 can get through a lineup 3 times, with enough pitch variety and quality to fool the majority of the opposing lineup a majority of the time, with a few strikeouts (0.6?) mixed in (assuming the proper levels of control, splits, velocity, etc.)

Pitcher 1 is better when he only needs to face guys once or at most twice, but he'll (assuming good other ratings) probably allow less baserunners and strikeout about .8K/9, which is really a minimum expectation of an RP.

In RL more pitch selection helps starters on their 2nd and 3rd times through the lineup, but do we have ANY evidence that this is the case in HBD? I've never seen anything other than anecdotal stuff to make me believe that. I'm not sure that type of thing is programmed into the engine.

Also you quote strikeout rates for these guys without knowing their other ratings, are K/9 rates based solely upon pitch ratings? I really don't think so...

#2 is going to be the better pitcher all other things being equal. those aren't really that bad of pitches for #4 and #5

I've learned my lesson with 3 pitch pitchers....unless their splits are bonafide stud-like, I now try to avoid them unless I am using them as a RP.

#2 for sure

So far, including my own opinion, we seem to be seven-to-one in favor of Pitcher #2 (with soxfan saying it depends on role)...

Congratulations, schedule, you would seem to have the best grasp on the game of any of us, because you (the one) are the one that CS agrees with. Here's the scenario that led to my initial post:

In a recent playoff game, I had both pitchers designated as Setup A. In the top of the 9th, with a 4-1 lead and two out, my opponent had a player get a single and then pinch-hit with a right-handed batter who hit ies relatively well (76).

Sparky elected not to bring in any of the available right-handed relievers, even though they had better pitches, better vs RH, and the pinch-hitter was rated 17 points lower vs RH. According to CS, this was primarily due to velocity and GB/FB ratings. I'd still much rather have seen one of the RH RP brought in, but that's not the discussion being had in this thread.

In the end, for purposes of this discussion, let's focus on two of the LH RP who were available.

Pitcher #1 - 87 control, 65 vs RH, 74 P1, 70 P2, 51 P3, 88 velocity, 35 GB/FB

Pitcher #2 - 92 control, 68 vs RH, 82 P1, 65 P2, 59 P3, 49 P4, 35 P5, 86 velocity, 51 GB/FB

Now we'll look at some of the ticket exchange:



CS: The manager viewed #1 as the best choice to get the out... The manager will evaluate the overall skill of the pitcher vs that type of hitter (L/R/S). #1's collective skillset puts him as the most effective of the bunch in that situation. You listed control, effectiveness splits and pitch grades -- all very important. But don't forget GB/FB and velocity as both play a part.

ME: Presumably, higher number for velocity and GB/FB are preferable, and #1 does, in fact, have a higher velocity than the RH options I had available...

...even if accounting for velocity and GB/FB, I can't see why #1 would be the proper call in that situation over #2.

#2 has better control, a significantly better first pitch, a better third pitch, 2 "extra" pitches, better effectiveness vs. RH (the hand of the batter at the plate) and a better GB/FB rating. The *only* things #1 is stronger at are P2 (70 vs 65) and velocity (88 vs 86). The P2 difference in favor of #1 is more than outweighed by the P1 and P3 differences in favor of #2 (82 vs 74; 59 vs 51) and the fact that he has 2 additional pitches to go to.

So, are you really telling me that the extra two points (88 vs 86) in velocity makes #1 the "most effective of the bunch in that situation" or is there some additional rating that I have overlooked?

CS: And the pitch grades. While one [#2] has more pitches, some of the lesser pitches are below average so they can serve as a negative.



CONCLUSION:
So, not only are the pitches from Pitcher #1 the better set of pitches, it's not even a toss-up. They (along with 2 points in velocity) are sufficiently better to overcome a 5-point difference in control, a 3-point difference in hand effectiveness, and a 16-point advantage in GB/FB to make him a more effective pitcher in the situation presented than Pitcher #2.