i have allways been intriged by underperormers and overacheivers in HD.

you know what i mean... the senior SG who is basically maxed out across the board and great IQs, yet he is shooting 31%.

or the occasional freshman that shoots 55% despite ratings worse than nearly all of his teammates and an IQ that is certainly not helping his cause.

In some cases it just seems that there MUST be some hidden variables, but admin has repeatedly and forcefully said "no".

hmm...

I've had many tell me hs FG% is irrelevant. Is it really the case? Are some players "volume shooters" like Iverson? Shooting 8 shots a game may result in 1-8, but if you give him 20 shots he will "get hot " and light it up. I think overachievers have a lot to do with either small sample size, orthe fact that when he plays, he can play well due to the fact its a blowout game and that the other team happens to be playing 3 walkons at the time.

here is a current exmple of my conundum from my cuse-tark team:

Both players are Centers

Both are in their second year with the Oranefellas (Otto tranferred in)

Both have had similar IQs throughout thier career and are currently at B

Soph -Mikey Richards shoots 36% through 7 games

Jr -Scott Otto shoots 53% through 7 games

Last year, Richards shot 49% ; Otto shot 56%

neither kid shoots threes other than the occasional desperation heave.

Athleticism - Richards-94 ; Otto-73

Speed Richards-53 ; Otto- 47

LP-PE Richards- 99-11 ; Otto 94-2

ballhandling Richards - 23 ; Otto 6

RE Richards - 94 ; Otto 97



So, I would say they are fairly similar players with Richards being slightly better accross the board and a way better athlete, which i had allways thought would be fairly important fr a bigman.

and that athleticism does show up with richards rebounding. his offensive rebouning, in partiular, would seem to give him a big advantage over otto. he averages aou on offensive rebound every 8 minutes... nearly twice as much as otto. so he should be getting a few more put backs and tapins, no?

but yet he consistently underperforms compared to Otto.

the only thing (and i admit it could be the root of the issue for this year) is that richards starts and Otto comes off the bench. but doesnt the hockey style substitution reduce the chances that subs are allways in against subs?



here is the team:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=12052

Quote: Originally Posted By nbstowman on 5/31/2010I've had many tell me hs FG% is irrelevant. Is it really the case? Are some players "volume shooters" like Iverson? Shooting 8 shots a game may result in 1-8, but if you give him 20 shots he will "get hot " and light it up. I think overachievers have a lot to do with either small sample size, orthe fact that when he plays, he can play well due to the fact its a blowout game and that the other team happens to be playing 3 walkons at the time.

good points

okay, here is what i am getting at:

if you had two guys

Player A appears to be better payer according to ratings,etc

PlayerB, despite poorer ratings, has consistently shot the ball better.

big game coming... who gets more distro?

PlayerA? because he is clearly superior in the engine's eyes and the fact that he has shot poorly in the past only makes you think that he will shoot great in the future because if the sample size is big enough, he will reach his "norm"?

PlayerB? becuase stats dont lie?

or just set them all at zero?

After about five games I look at my distro page and anyone shooting about 52%+ I bump up the distro a little and anyone shooting about 37-38% or less I bump down the distro a little bit. My theory is if you're making them shoot more, and if you're missing them shoot only the quality shots.

A, being the better player he makes those around him better...imo

Quote: Originally Posted By brs04 on 5/31/2010
A, being the better player he makes those around him better...imo

huh?



im not asking which one should play... asking which should have higher distro

Quote: Originally Posted By watch_this on 5/31/2010After about five games I look at my distro page and anyone shooting about 52%+ I bump up the distro a little and anyone shooting about 37-38% or less I bump down the distro a little bit. My theory is if you're making them shoot more, and if you're missing them shoot only the quality shots

i do pretty much the same thing (numbers are a bit different, but the idea is the same)

i suppose im playing devil's advocate and trying to se ifhere might be a rationale for doing things differently

A, for me, with the distro he gets the ball more, not necessarily scores more.

brs04 you still aren't really making sense... Your sentence made sense, it just isn't going with the flow of the thread.

As for oldave, I think the rationale would be that player A is the better player than player B, so he should be shooting a better percentage than B. Because he isn't, it must just mean the sample size isn't big enough, so give him enough shots and eventually he will start making enough to the point where he regains the edge in FG%.

However I don't like to follow that logic because I figure that there's something I'm not picking up on and he must be shooting a worse FG% for a reason, so I drop the distro.

I think your final point in your comparison post is the key, olddave. Otto isn't playing against starters all the time, so you can't realisticly compare the two. We see #2's at many positions "outperform" their better counterparts, and much of that has to do with who they play against. By all means increase Otto's distro, he does well when he's spelling Richards.

I'd also look to thier passing, Otto takes better shots because he can pass better when covered compared to Richards, improving his FG% on the whole.

maybe you're just a terrible coach?

od, in this case I think it has more to do with Otto playing more time against backups...are they ever on the court together? otherwise don't you need to compare their distro against the players they will spend the most time on the court with rather than compare it to each other?

for me, i just set them to what their "skills" dictate and then i raise or lower their distro based on production, somewhat, although if it's within a sort of ratio where i expect that it's just sample size.. but if someone is shooting 36% and someone else is shooting 55%, i will almost certainly lower the former's distro and raise the latters.