Here is my delima.  I am down 2-1 in the world series.  Wendell Ducey is my best pitcher.  Going into game 4 he is 64(90).  Would like to hear thoughts on starting him in game 5 vs. game 6.  I feel like game 5 might be a must win situation, so thats a point in the favor of starting him.  I also would like to have him available for a third game in the series if needed (game 7), and the only way to do that would be to get him in game 5.  Im also concerned that if I throw him out in game 5 he wont be as dominant..

My other options would be.. 
Hooks Rakers
Cesar Almonte
Juan Tatis

I could also combo
Al Guardado and Dustin Xavier



Thoughts?

Combo Guardado and Xavier. If game Five is a must win then game six is going to be a must win as well, so even if you start Ducey at 90% you'll be in the same dilemma for game 6. So starting Ducey at 100% is your best option. Then if your game 4 pitcher isn't ready I would start Tatis. 

Agreed.

If you're down 3-1 after 4, then you gotta win game 5 to make it to game 6.  You don't want your best pitcher fully rested for a game that never gets played.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/24/2010 1:23:00 PM (view original):
If you're down 3-1 after 4, then you gotta win game 5 to make it to game 6.  You don't want your best pitcher fully rested for a game that never gets played.

For me, the goal of the World Series isn't to win as many games as possible while losing the series. I don't really feel much better losing 4 games to 2 instead of 4 games to 1.

With that in mind, if you're down 3-1 after 4, you have to win game 5, game 6, and game 7 or else you lose the series. If you throw the 90% guy in game 5 and win, you've got to come back with some combo of the other game 5 options in game 6. Those other guys are no more likely to win game 6 than game 5, so take the shot with them in game 5 and bring back to better pitcher at 100% for game 6. Realistically, the 90% guy will be toast on a normal pitch count for game 7, so all you are really deciding is which of these two options is better, when you must win both games:

Game 5 - Pitcher A at 90%
Game 6 - Pitcher X at 100%

OR

Game 5 - Pitcher X at 100%
Game 6 - Pitcher A at 100%

It's math. Recognize it as such and this is an easy call.

The part of the equation that I left out is that Will Long  will be at 100 to start game 6. I also have Clay Brooks starting game 4, so with the off day he could be available for game 7.

The biggest issue I have is needing to lock my game 5 pitcher before game 4, so I have no idea if I am down 3-1 or tied 2-2 going into it.  Theoritically, I could start Dustin Xavier in game 5, and if I am down 3-1 make Ducey my B pitcher for the game, if it is tied 2-2 make Guardado my B pitcher for the game.

I'd also be able to throw Benito Torrealba in the mix somewhere in game 6 or 7

i REALLY want a "SP if win current game" and "SP if lose current game" option for the end of the season and the playoffs.

Won game 4, so went with Xavier and Gaurdado in game 5, Ducey on full rest in game 6, and Long and Brooks in game 7 if needed.

I'm curious about this. Keep updated. (Bump)

Xavier and Guardado went 5 innings giving up 3 earned on 7 hits and a walk. Next guy came in and pitched a clean 6th. 4 runs in the 8th, 5 in the 9th. Lost 12-2

Ducey got out dueled in game 6. Went 7, gave up 2 on 7 hits and a walk. Struck out 9. Lost 2-1.

It should be noted that the 3 other options, Rakers, Almonte and Tatis all came in during game 5 and were responsible for the 9 runs.

Posted by zbrent716 on 7/24/2010 2:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/24/2010 1:23:00 PM (view original):
If you're down 3-1 after 4, then you gotta win game 5 to make it to game 6.  You don't want your best pitcher fully rested for a game that never gets played.

For me, the goal of the World Series isn't to win as many games as possible while losing the series. I don't really feel much better losing 4 games to 2 instead of 4 games to 1.

With that in mind, if you're down 3-1 after 4, you have to win game 5, game 6, and game 7 or else you lose the series. If you throw the 90% guy in game 5 and win, you've got to come back with some combo of the other game 5 options in game 6. Those other guys are no more likely to win game 6 than game 5, so take the shot with them in game 5 and bring back to better pitcher at 100% for game 6. Realistically, the 90% guy will be toast on a normal pitch count for game 7, so all you are really deciding is which of these two options is better, when you must win both games:

Game 5 - Pitcher A at 90%
Game 6 - Pitcher X at 100%

OR

Game 5 - Pitcher X at 100%
Game 6 - Pitcher A at 100%

It's math. Recognize it as such and this is an easy call.

When A >>> X, it's not an easy call. At least not to me.

Would you rather lose the series with your best SP resting, or with your best SP throwing? There is little evidence to support that a 90% SP is all that much less effective than a 100% SP... and when the difference in their abilities is significant, I'd always rather play the tired star over the rested journeyman.

I'd rather win the series, of course, but if I'm going to lose, I'd rather go down guns blazing.

Posted by iain on 7/27/2010 2:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zbrent716 on 7/24/2010 2:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/24/2010 1:23:00 PM (view original):
If you're down 3-1 after 4, then you gotta win game 5 to make it to game 6.  You don't want your best pitcher fully rested for a game that never gets played.

For me, the goal of the World Series isn't to win as many games as possible while losing the series. I don't really feel much better losing 4 games to 2 instead of 4 games to 1.

With that in mind, if you're down 3-1 after 4, you have to win game 5, game 6, and game 7 or else you lose the series. If you throw the 90% guy in game 5 and win, you've got to come back with some combo of the other game 5 options in game 6. Those other guys are no more likely to win game 6 than game 5, so take the shot with them in game 5 and bring back to better pitcher at 100% for game 6. Realistically, the 90% guy will be toast on a normal pitch count for game 7, so all you are really deciding is which of these two options is better, when you must win both games:

Game 5 - Pitcher A at 90%
Game 6 - Pitcher X at 100%

OR

Game 5 - Pitcher X at 100%
Game 6 - Pitcher A at 100%

It's math. Recognize it as such and this is an easy call.

When A >>> X, it's not an easy call. At least not to me.

Would you rather lose the series with your best SP resting, or with your best SP throwing? There is little evidence to support that a 90% SP is all that much less effective than a 100% SP... and when the difference in their abilities is significant, I'd always rather play the tired star over the rested journeyman.

I'd rather win the series, of course, but if I'm going to lose, I'd rather go down guns blazing.

I'd rather maximize my chances of winning the series. Period. 

As I said, I don't care whether I lose 4-games-to-2 or 4-games-to-1. Losing sucks. If I can reduce the chances of my losing the series (which is what throwing both players at 100% does) that's what I'm doing, even if it increases the likelihood that I lose 4-games-to-1 instead of 4-games-to-2.

I guess my reaction here was a bit of a spillover from a discussion we had in one of my worlds earlier this week.

One owner held his ace back in Game 7 of the ALCS so that he'd have him to go 1-4-7 in the WS.

I ran my ace out in Game 7 of the NLCS at about 93%... maybe 96%, whatever..... less than 100, and certainly not available to start the next series.

We both lost, so there's no advantage of hindsight.

I was admant that I'd rather go down guns blazing, whereas he also said he'd do it again, since he lost 3-1 and blames his hitting, anyway.

My question to you, z: Which would you have done?

Not the same... apples and oranges to the discussion above... I know. But I'm just curious..... I typically like how you think, and I'm surprised that we differ in the discussion above.