Scheduling non conference games Topic

enchant11
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just wondering if it would be better to have a hard schedule and many losses or an easy schedule and many wins.. this is my second year in D2 the first year i lost nearly all my NC games.. i picked easy teams to play  this season and  i have a low  ....3726 Sos .. thanks for any comments.
11/9/2010 5:03 PM
alblack56
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If I'm in a strong conference, I like a medium-difficult schedule.
If I'm in a weak conference, I schedule as strong as I can
11/9/2010 5:06 PM
gillispie
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Posted by alblack56 on 11/9/2010 5:06:00 PM (view original):
If I'm in a strong conference, I like a medium-difficult schedule.
If I'm in a weak conference, I schedule as strong as I can
this is smart if you are a really good team, which if you are allblack, is probably the case.

the cliff notes to a great scheduling guide are (d2/d3 only), schedule 10 road games all of which you have 75-90% chance to win. choose opponents that satisfy that criteria who will also have solid records (don't pick the bottom teams in great conferences - their record is the biggest impact on your rpi. pick top teams in ****** conferences).
11/9/2010 6:03 PM (edited)
gillispie
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you cant say shi tty? all i can say about that is, that is really shi tty!
11/9/2010 6:04 PM
asher413
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Once a wise coach said- "Schedule the hardest teams you can beat"
11/9/2010 6:40 PM
hughesjr
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Posted by asher413 on 11/9/2010 6:40:00 PM (view original):
Once a wise coach said- "Schedule the hardest teams you can beat"
This is what I try to do ... and I try to schedule "sure win" games away, while the closer ones at home.

A win on the road counts more than a win at home.  A loss on the road counts less than a loss at home.
11/9/2010 7:02 PM
billscnb
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I agree with allblack. If your conference isn't very good, schedule as hard as you can. If your conference is strong, don't schedule tough.
11/9/2010 9:29 PM
gillispie
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Posted by billscnb on 11/9/2010 9:29:00 PM (view original):
I agree with allblack. If your conference isn't very good, schedule as hard as you can. If your conference is strong, don't schedule tough.
this is just dangerous advice for a coach without a great team (the schedule as hard as you can bit) . say you have a borderline NT team. you schedule 5 top 25 teams and 5 other 25-50 teams all on the road. you win 2 games. this is not going to help you win the NT bid.

if you are in a very poor conference, you are unlikely to lose many games at all at home. so, the need for road wins out of conf is lessened significantly. more important is to get a good SOS without kililng your record. if you play a team you are very likely to lose to, only play them on the road. so 1-2 games against top 10 teams to learn about you team and for a good SOS is fine. but don't lose them at home! mostly, I would be scheduling teams in the 60-80 quality range who i expect to outperform their quality with their record. guys who will win 12+ in conf and most in non conf, but with a pretty weak sos, would be pretty perfect. beat 8 of these guys and lose to 2 and you are infinitely better off than playing a ridiculously hard schedule and winning 3 if you are lucky and possibly 0 or 1 if not.
11/9/2010 9:44 PM
gillispie
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remember that your opponent's record is two thirds of how they factor into your SOS. so you are ideally going to play easy teams (relatively speaking) with good records (relatively speaking). an opponent who is 20-6 in regular season but with a 130 rpi is going to factor into your rpi/sos very nicely indeed.
11/9/2010 9:46 PM
billscnb
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Last year in Phelan I had some injuries and only started 1-9 and won my CT, but still had an RPI of about 30, then went on to the Sweet 16 and only lost in the Elite 8 round by one. So I guess that kinda goes with having a good team, I just have noticed that SOS is HUGE. I would definitely NOT schedule anyone who is going to be below 200 RPI.
11/9/2010 9:52 PM
trobone
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it depends, if you're trying to build up pretigue then you want wins IMO. It's hard to not make the PI if you can rack up 20+ wins. Play a couple really tough teams (top 5) ont he road to help your SOS and RPI.
11/10/2010 1:08 AM
colonels19
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I like scrub pounding the first few years at a school until I get some/my players, but I'm a whore for the W.  I gradually try to improve my schedule yearly, but I'm a fan of the cupcake schedy lol.
11/10/2010 10:41 AM
dukenilnil
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I try to schedule a top 50 SOS with a mix of very top teams to guage my team, medium teams that I will beat some years, lose some years, and solid team, but one's I should beat in a good year.  This is regardless of conference strenght. 
One caveat, though, I am loyal to the home & home format and to teams I've played, so I often play 6-8 of the same teams every year and try to alternate home/away.
11/10/2010 11:05 AM
Rails
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25% is record so win games.  Road games are better if you can win 'em. 

But you'll play more games (approx. 18) against your conference mates compared to only 10 noncon games so the biggest factor in RPI is actually how your conference mates fare (and especially those in your half of the conference) in nonconference play.  That accounts for about 40% of your RPI because how they do in nonconference will roll up 18 times (broken up by division of course) into your OWP (which is 50% of RPI).  This fact is extremely important because your conference mates' nonconference record also rolls up into your OOWP because the majority of your opponents' opponents are, once again, your conference mates.  It's also critical to note that your conference mate's noncon records are what matters because once conference play begins every conference will go .500 the rest of the way.  In other words it really doesn't matter if you play a conference mate that is 0-10 in the conference or 10-0 in conference play because by season's end one team's win is another's loss.  [Again factor in your half of the conference a little more if it's not balanced.] 

How your noncon opponents do throughout their entire season accounts for about 17% of your RPI so their conference portion accounts for about 11% and their nonconference portion accounts for about 6% of the 17%.  if a really strong team is playing a really strong noncon schedule, they certainly could lose some of those games.  Their RPI and SOS is not necessarily a benefit to you because 1/3 of their SOS is irrelavant to you.  In other words you might be better off playing a team with a higher RPI but a better record.  The other thing to note is that OWP and OOWP doesn't factor in home/away like your W% does.  So if your conference mates and non con oppoenents are scheduling 10 road noncon games, that doesn't help you unless they win.

In the end, control what you can control and influence what you can influence.  If you are in a weak conference, schedule tough.  If you are in a tough conference and you think you are a top team in that conference it really doesn't matter.  But I will say that if you are in a tough conference and everyone thinks they are tough and schedules a tough noncon and you go .420 thru noncon play, your fate will be sealed because just under 65% of your schedule will be against teams that had a terrible noncon record (remember that conference records don't matter because your win is another's loss and I play you both).

IRL, the big conferences get this concept and they know that the majority of their conference mates (even the lower half teams) will do well in nonconferrence play.  That is why the majority of BCS teams have mostly midmajors with a few real games for the top teams in the BCS conferences.  The lower half teams don't usually play a tough noncon because losing 1) hurts their RPI (25%) and 2) hurts everyone of their conference mates to some degree via OWP and OOWP.

11/10/2010 2:21 PM (edited)
enchant11
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Ok , i see that RPI is important, but  my team is kinda bad ATM. I need to build the team so in need better recruits showing up. So does the RPI or wins make the players available to my teams recruiting next season ..
11/10/2010 4:39 PM
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