Question about a players algorithm Topic

stickyfeet99
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Question: I have a terrible '98 Sosa that's just past the All Star break.  He's batting .230 with 14 HRs (actual stats: .308, 66 HR's, according to performance history his all time low avg. is like .268... I'm 40 points below that).  I'm guessing this is an algorithm thing and I "rolled" a crappy Sosa. Is he trash for the rest of the season, or do these guys sometimes turn it around halfway through the season?


5/25/2011 12:01 PM
frazzman80
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Posted by stickyfeet99 on 5/25/2011 12:01:00 PM (view original):
Question: I have a terrible '98 Sosa that's just past the All Star break.  He's batting .230 with 14 HRs (actual stats: .308, 66 HR's, according to performance history his all time low avg. is like .268... I'm 40 points below that).  I'm guessing this is an algorithm thing and I "rolled" a crappy Sosa. Is he trash for the rest of the season, or do these guys sometimes turn it around halfway through the season?


In my experience, there is no "crappy roll" or "poor algoritthm" pre-programmed into players.  It could be that there are factors in your league that are leading to this type of performance:  Is the overall league batting average low? Is he facing several low OAV pitchers? Do you fall in a pitching heavy division? Are you playing in parks that are pitcher friendly, or -2 to singles?  There could be many reasons why, but there is no programmed "poor version".

That said, in my experience, players who have underperformed for a first half of the season tend to regress back to the mean, so you may be in for a huge second half.  I had a 1922 Bobby Veach hit around .230 for the first half of a season finish with a .271 batting average at the end of the year...essentially hitting over .350 the entire second half.  I am not guarteeing that will occurr for you, but I'd watch his last 10 games stats closely to see if he shows signs of turning it around. 

If you get closer to the transaction deadline and are in the playoff hunt and he's still not performing well, I'd bench him or waive him in an effort to make the playoffs.
5/25/2011 12:27 PM
mixtroy
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Sticky, I can't recall who it was, but someone once posted a link to a site that calculated the probability of something changing or remaining the same based on different variables. But that aside, while Sosa rarely comes close to his glistening  RL stats, it may very well be that you just got a bad one. I can't speak for others, but me, personally, I use the rule of thumb that any player, irrespective of who he is or his history, who is severely underperforming and costing me games halfway through the season, I simply dump him for someone else instead of sitting back and HOPING they'll turn it around. After all, if they're performing truly horribly, whomever you decide to exchange him for, can't possibly do any worse, considering you make an appropriate exchange.
5/25/2011 12:36 PM
mixtroy
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Hell, I even got rid of the sim God himself, Mr. 08 Joss, who had a 4.00+ ERA near the halfway point in a division where there was nothing but pitcher's parks.  I exchanged him for 65 Koufax who ended with a sub 2.00 ERA.
5/25/2011 12:42 PM
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mixtroy
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That may be so, Joe, but it seems to me that MOST of the time, with a few exceptions, whatever a player is doing at the midpoint, he will generally stay the same til the end. Maybe its just luck, randomness, or whatever you want to call it, but that's the way it seems to me. 
5/25/2011 2:37 PM
jfranco77
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There may be other reasons why he's been terrible... parks and pitcher mix of your opponents, league AVG/ERA, etc. If those are the case he won't get better. If you're facing a lot of deadballers they will massacre Sosa's power.


5/25/2011 2:43 PM
Trentonjoe
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Posted by mixtroy on 5/25/2011 2:37:00 PM (view original):
That may be so, Joe, but it seems to me that MOST of the time, with a few exceptions, whatever a player is doing at the midpoint, he will generally stay the same til the end. Maybe its just luck, randomness, or whatever you want to call it, but that's the way it seems to me. 
There is usually a reason why someone isn't performing at the level you expect.  

I have  found that guys (normally) get to where they should be around 300 PA.
5/25/2011 2:50 PM
mixtroy
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But Joe, what do you do when you're at the midpoint or deadline and your $8 mil OL star is hitting .240 while your team toils at .500 ball?  Do you sit there and HOPE or ASSUME he'll have a bigtime second half, or do you bit the bullet, cut your losses and make a change? Me? I have no problem rolling the dice and dumping a guy.

5/25/2011 3:25 PM
napolean
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Since you're in a Theme with no WW, dumping him is off the table, aside from that Turner Field is not hitter or HR "friendly".  To your point, I've seen guys have "off years" so to speak, my rule of thumb is usually "All Star" break, under performing at that point requires action IMO, be advised however, it is a total gamble whether or not whoever you pick up will do any better than who you dump.
5/25/2011 3:59 PM
eastvanmungo
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Let's say you are flipping a coin and you have just flipped 10 heads in a row... what are the odds that your next flip is going to come up heads?




5/25/2011 4:13 PM
Trentonjoe
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Posted by mixtroy on 5/25/2011 3:25:00 PM (view original):

But Joe, what do you do when you're at the midpoint or deadline and your $8 mil OL star is hitting .240 while your team toils at .500 ball?  Do you sit there and HOPE or ASSUME he'll have a bigtime second half, or do you bit the bullet, cut your losses and make a change? Me? I have no problem rolling the dice and dumping a guy.

This is what I do:

1. I check if he really is underperforming...often times with pitchers their #'s are bad but when you compare them to the league average or the rest of the team they aren't as bad as I think.  A 4.06 ERA isn't that bad when the league ERA is 5.12.
2. Look to see why he is not performing.  Are they playing fatigued, are my division mates all in parks that are hurting him, did I screw up the pitch count, there could be a number of other factors.
3. If it's still bad and I can't figure it out, I'll let him ride.  If I have a backup, I may platoon him.

I have had lots of guys suck in the regular season and then hit 400 in the playoffs.  I'll admit when I get to the playoffs I usually use the regular season heavily in my lineup decisions, though.
5/25/2011 9:42 PM
zubinsum
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Posted by stickyfeet99 on 5/25/2011 12:01:00 PM (view original):
Question: I have a terrible '98 Sosa that's just past the All Star break.  He's batting .230 with 14 HRs (actual stats: .308, 66 HR's, according to performance history his all time low avg. is like .268... I'm 40 points below that).  I'm guessing this is an algorithm thing and I "rolled" a crappy Sosa. Is he trash for the rest of the season, or do these guys sometimes turn it around halfway through the season?


Sosa's perfomance history has him averaging .307/ .372/ .518 but that seems rather high to me.  Given he is right-handed, I'd expect him to hit ~.288 in a neutral park (RH batters perform ~20 points under their avg#.)  Over half a season (350PA) I'd expect him to hit anywhere from .239 to .337 in a neutral park at a 95% confidence level.  It seems to me that you are getting abnormally unlucky, tho not extremely so.

One thing to keep in mind, you can't really get a crappy version of a player.  That player is either facing tough pitching (or the equivalent thereof) or is just getting unlucky.
5/25/2011 11:56 PM
zubinsum
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You can use this chart to see what to  expect a player to hit at a 95% confidence level.  For example if you expect a guy to hit .320 over 600AB, there is a 95% chance he will hit within 38 points of that expected average (.320 +/- 0.038 or .282 to .358). 

.
5/26/2011 12:03 AM
mixtroy
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Zub, perhaps I used the wrong choice of words when I suggested Sticky got a "bad" Sosa. That's just my "Troyspeak" for the player having an "off" year as Napolean noted sometimes happens. I just can't see myself holding onto an expensive player whose killing my team.  Unless you have a great backup or an excellent AAA guy, a change has to be made, because as I noted above, whomever you dump the guy for can't possibly do any worse than the guy you're dumping. And if its an expensive player that you're dumping, the odds are that his replacement will likely perform better than his horrible performance.
5/26/2011 12:26 AM
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