anytime this is seriously looked at, it has huge flaws, yet, when I have used it to predict entire conference outcomes, it works reasonably well.

750-824 1 point
825-900 2 pts
901 plus 3 pts
rated senior add one more point

usually a plus 5 team has a decent shot at making the dance, a plus 10 team has a shot at winning it all, and a plus 15 team or greater is pretty special.  Not exactly sure, but I think gil once had a plus 24, maybe with colorado, someone had near that with mich state once too.

Georgia Tech in Tark was at +18 this season, no surprise they went 34-1 and won the title.

Posted by oldresorter on 6/3/2011 6:53:00 PM (view original):
anytime this is seriously looked at, it has huge flaws, yet, when I have used it to predict entire conference outcomes, it works reasonably well.

750-824 1 point
825-900 2 pts
901 plus 3 pts
rated senior add one more point

usually a plus 5 team has a decent shot at making the dance, a plus 10 team has a shot at winning it all, and a plus 15 team or greater is pretty special.  Not exactly sure, but I think gil once had a plus 24, maybe with colorado, someone had near that with mich state once too.

"rated senior add one more point"

I want to be sure what this part is.  So you add 1 more point for each senior you have as long as they're at least 750, is that correct?

And these are beginning of the season values, right?

jdno - yes and yes

Oh, I forgot to add the 1 point for seniors, Georgia Tech is actually at 22.

OR, those have to be figured at the start of the season, right?

That was actually already answered, coach.

oldresorter actually uses the hexadecimal number system for 12th dimensional basketball root extraction comparisons. And maybe some coffee and pi.

Posted by oldresorter on 6/3/2011 6:53:00 PM (view original):
anytime this is seriously looked at, it has huge flaws, yet, when I have used it to predict entire conference outcomes, it works reasonably well.

750-824 1 point
825-900 2 pts
901 plus 3 pts
rated senior add one more point

usually a plus 5 team has a decent shot at making the dance, a plus 10 team has a shot at winning it all, and a plus 15 team or greater is pretty special.  Not exactly sure, but I think gil once had a plus 24, maybe with colorado, someone had near that with mich state once too.

Wow....I don't think i have had "1" point team yet!

I've got a team that is a 16 and I bet doesn't make the NT

I'd take the other side of that bet cburton.  GT is making it...just don't run uptempo  ;)

I'm at 15 in Naismith... so I like to think this team is "pretty special".

Do I get any bonus points for a player >1000? 

I'm at 20 ... on a team with only one senior and eight freshmen/sophs.

Posted by girt25 on 6/4/2011 8:00:00 PM (view original):
I'm at 20 ... on a team with only one senior and eight freshmen/sophs.

Your UNC squad was +13 when the season started, which is how OR originally had those cutoff values.  Young teams w/elite talent can show dramatic intraseason increases.  My Illinois team was +8 to start the most recent Rupp season but finished +23 on the way to the NT title (w/o any contributing seniors).