How does this school have an RPI of 4 and SOS of 6 Topic

gvsujulius
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This team is in my conference and looking at their schedule I just don't see how they have a RPI of 4 and a SOS of 7... they really haven't played anyone that great.

Is this because all the road games?

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=12500
12/29/2011 2:22 PM
cornfused
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7-1 (the loss and four of the wins were road games), and look at their opponent's records - 41-23 is pretty damn solid.

That's going to get you a good RPI.
12/29/2011 2:26 PM
gvsujulius
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Looking at who they played though Ursinis is 5-3 with an RPI of 11.... was there a change to reward you for losing games against good teams now? 
12/29/2011 2:32 PM
ll316
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I think i'm with GVSU.  3 out of 8 games against teams with 200+ rpi will usually destroy your rpi.  But I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong, please) that the 1st issuance of RPI tends to be a little jacked up. 
12/29/2011 2:36 PM
gvsujulius
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I know it will ultimately work out and balance and it might actually benefit me as I play them twice and I think I can beat them. I was just shocked to see them and then when I looked at their schedule see that a team that is 5-3 has an RPI of 11.. 

Might be more out of whining as I see my horrible loss to a team with an RPI of 320.... favored by 40 points and I lose....

12/29/2011 2:38 PM
professor17
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Posted by ll316 on 12/29/2011 2:36:00 PM (view original):
I think i'm with GVSU.  3 out of 8 games against teams with 200+ rpi will usually destroy your rpi.  But I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong, please) that the 1st issuance of RPI tends to be a little jacked up. 
Your opponents record counts twice as much as your opponents SOS in the RPI formula. So as long as your opponents are winning games, it's going to help your RPI, almost regardless of who they are beating. I've had Top 20 (if not Top 10) RPI's at the end of non-conference without playing a single team in the Top 100, because they were all on the road, and all had decent records. Note that this strategy does not work near as well with the new NT selection criteria, though, as you will lag far behind your RPI in the Projection Report. RPI is not as important as it used to be, which is a good change.
12/29/2011 3:34 PM (edited)
udm_mike
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I'll be darned.  I didn't know that, professor.  Thanks!
12/29/2011 3:43 PM
isack24
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RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

So, as professor said, if you win games and your opponents win games, 75% of your RPI will be very good. 

12/29/2011 4:16 PM
Rails
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Posted by professor17 on 12/29/2011 3:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ll316 on 12/29/2011 2:36:00 PM (view original):
I think i'm with GVSU.  3 out of 8 games against teams with 200+ rpi will usually destroy your rpi.  But I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong, please) that the 1st issuance of RPI tends to be a little jacked up. 
Your opponents record counts twice as much as your opponents SOS in the RPI formula. So as long as your opponents are winning games, it's going to help your RPI, almost regardless of who they are beating. I've had Top 20 (if not Top 10) RPI's at the end of non-conference without playing a single team in the Top 100, because they were all on the road, and all had decent records. Note that this strategy does not work near as well with the new NT selection criteria, though, as you will lag far behind your RPI in the Projection Report. RPI is not as important as it used to be, which is a good change.
Your opponents RPI doesn't count in your RPI formula.  You get more benefit by playing a 12-5 team with an RPI of 100 than you do playing a 7-8 team with an RPI of 80.

For more clarity check my thread in Allen under case study.  I'll bring the findings over to the main forum in a few days. 
12/29/2011 4:24 PM
girt25
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Posted by gvsujulius on 12/29/2011 2:32:00 PM (view original):
Looking at who they played though Ursinis is 5-3 with an RPI of 11.... was there a change to reward you for losing games against good teams now? 
There was no change that impacts SOS or RPI. Those are strictly formulaic and nothing has changed.
12/29/2011 5:11 PM
coach_billyg
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Posted by professor17 on 12/29/2011 3:34:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ll316 on 12/29/2011 2:36:00 PM (view original):
I think i'm with GVSU.  3 out of 8 games against teams with 200+ rpi will usually destroy your rpi.  But I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong, please) that the 1st issuance of RPI tends to be a little jacked up. 
Your opponents record counts twice as much as your opponents SOS in the RPI formula. So as long as your opponents are winning games, it's going to help your RPI, almost regardless of who they are beating. I've had Top 20 (if not Top 10) RPI's at the end of non-conference without playing a single team in the Top 100, because they were all on the road, and all had decent records. Note that this strategy does not work near as well with the new NT selection criteria, though, as you will lag far behind your RPI in the Projection Report. RPI is not as important as it used to be, which is a good change.
this is a decent summary, and its close enough for most purposes.

it is worth nothing, however, that your opponent's sos isn't really a factor in your rpi. part of their sos is. sos is exactly your rpi without the component that is your w/l. specifically, that is your opponents w/l combined with opponents opponents w/l. when you play someone, their opponent is your opponents opponents, so 2/3rds of their sos does factor into your rpi. the 1/3rd that is their opponents oppoents w/l, your opponents opponents opponents w/l, is not a factor at all. and, when you compare your opponent's record to the part of their SOS that impacts you - record is twice important. so, its a reasonable conclusion.

i often make the generalization that your opponent's record is twice as important to you as their rpi, which isn't exactly true either. their record is 25% of their rpi. and the last 25% of rpi isnt even a factor in your rpi at all. but, in their RPI, the part that impacts you is only 1/3rd based on their W/L. in YOUR RPI, their record is 2/3rds of their rpi's impact on you. thats why i think saying your opponents record is twice as important as their rpi is a fair generalization.
12/29/2011 8:41 PM
Rails
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I think the biggest misnomer is that many coaches believe that:
  • playing "good" teams as viewed by their history will lead to a good SOS.  The only thing that matters is the record of those teams and the teams those teams have played.  It really doesn't matter if they are truly good or not. 
  • playing "good" teams as viewed by their RPI will lead to a good SOS.
  • playing a team that is 8-7 with an RPI of 80 is better for them than a team that is 13-3 with an RPI of 100 (see above).
  
"Good" teams that play other good teams to go 5-5 in OOC and then play in a tough conference doesn't help a team as much as one who plays and wins against lesser competition.

Many coaches do not realize that the OOC Win/Loss Percentage of their conference mates (and not the records of their OOC opponents) is the single biggest factor in SOS.  

I see many coaches apologizing to their conference mates for "scheduling weak."  They may go 10-0 with a 300 SOS and still apologize to the guy who goes 6-4 with a Top 15 SOS.  All things equal in conference play, the guy going 5-5 with a 15 SOS hurts all 11 of his conference mates more than he is hurt by the guy who goes 10-0.  In fact it doesn't hurt the 5-5 guy at all to play the 10-0 guy because the 5-5 guy doesn't have to include his 5-5 record in his own RPI.  Playing the 10-0 guy actually is a benefit.  Similarly, the 10-0 is hurt because he cannot count his 10-0 record in his own RPI.  He has to factor in that crap 5-5 record that his buddy threw up on the wall. 



 
12/29/2011 10:53 PM (edited)
isack24
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"All things equal in conference play, the guy going 5-5 with a 15 SOS hurts all 11 of his conference mates more than he is hurt by the guy who goes 10-0."

You can't say that in a vacuum.  I think you're being way too broad.  If someone has a 300 SOS, it's because the teams they play are really bad OOC.  If a team has an SOS of 15, it's because the teams they play have won a lot of games.  

Yes, opponents' opponents only counts for 25% of RPI, but when you're talking about potentially 30 games under .500 by the end of the years versus 30 games over .500, that 60-game swing will be huge, even if only accounting for 25%.  

I don't disagree with your premise or assertion that people simply don't understand RPI, but I think your extreme examples are probably wrong or, at the very least, incorrect as a general rule.
12/29/2011 11:29 PM
tianyi7886
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I think the guy that schedules weak to a 10-0 is apologizing because he could get to 18-20 wins and still not make the NT, thus  hurting his conf in terms of recruiting cash. 
12/30/2011 12:32 AM
coach_billyg
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Posted by isack24 on 12/29/2011 11:29:00 PM (view original):
"All things equal in conference play, the guy going 5-5 with a 15 SOS hurts all 11 of his conference mates more than he is hurt by the guy who goes 10-0."

You can't say that in a vacuum.  I think you're being way too broad.  If someone has a 300 SOS, it's because the teams they play are really bad OOC.  If a team has an SOS of 15, it's because the teams they play have won a lot of games.  

Yes, opponents' opponents only counts for 25% of RPI, but when you're talking about potentially 30 games under .500 by the end of the years versus 30 games over .500, that 60-game swing will be huge, even if only accounting for 25%.  

I don't disagree with your premise or assertion that people simply don't understand RPI, but I think your extreme examples are probably wrong or, at the very least, incorrect as a general rule.
you can say that in a vacuum.

what rails said is correct - going 5-5 is worse than 10-0, no matter what. the best case (impossible) for the 5-5 team is their sos is 1.00, meaning every team they played never lost and all their opponents never lost either - where the 10-0 team played only 0-10 teams who all played 0-10 teams. when you play the 5-5 guy, you get 2/3rds of the value from the 5-5, and 1/3rds from their opponents, .100. this sums to .5 * 2/3 + 1 * 1/3 or .667.

when you play the 10-0 team, you get 2/3rds from their 10-0 and 1/3rd from their opponent's .00 winning percentage. thats 1.00 * 2/3 + 0.00 * 1/3, or .667. this means that in NO scenario is it possible for the 5-5 team to be better for their conference mates.

realistically, the best kind of SOS you see is .7, the worst being about .3. then, the 5-5 team would contribute only .566! the 10-0 team would contribute a whopping and vastly superior .766!
12/30/2011 4:24 AM
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