Figured it wouldn't hurt to ask you guys what you think of this team's postseason resume.  Allen is one day away from announcing seeds and this team is finished playing.

Castleton State
15-13
RPI: 24
SOS: 1
Projection Report: 34
Against Top 50 RPI: 1-11  (Win is against RPI #50, all 11 losses are to RPI #20 or better including 6 losses to RPI's #1-#4)
Against Top 51 - 100 RPI: 4-1
Against Top 101 - 150 RPI: 4-0
Against Top 151- 200 RPI: 5-1
Against Bottom 200 RPI: 1-0


I'm asking the questions because (1) I think this is a pretty good team that is better than at least half of the teams that will make the NT and (2) I don't see the wins that really deserve a spot in the dance even though 11 of the 13 losses are to very good teams.  I honestly don't know what side I would take if I were determining qualification/seed.

I think that team certainly deserves a bid, but I'd be hesitant to assign it a seed without being able to compare it other teams.

Yeah, that's a last-four-in kind of team.  I'd give them a 12 or a 13.

Castleton is in. Won't be the 7/8 seed as indicated by the projection report but also won't be the 16th. 

tianyi, the Projection Report is ironclad, other than adjustments to avoid early conference matchups. So if the PR lists them as an 8, they will be an 8.

That said, to me this is a borderline NT team with an RPI that's just overinflated from getting beat up by a bunch of good teams. I tend to agree with corn's assertion that they're a last four in sort of team.

(Worth noting that under the old system they would've been a lock to make it as well, based purely on RPI.)

Same world, same division.

Fisk
14-14
RPI: 58
SOS: 4
Projection Report: 65
Against Top 50 RPI: 2-11
Against Top 51 - 100 RPI: 2-2
Against Top 101 - 150 RPI: 2-1
Against Top 151- 200 RPI: 1-0
Against Bottom 200 RPI: 7-0


For the season, Castleton State has a point differential of -7.  Fisk is -31.

I don't see all that much that is different between the two in terms of good wins.  The biggest difference seems to be that Castleton has 9 wins against RPI 101-200 teams and 1 against a 200+ team while Fisk has 3 and 7 respectively.

I actually think the placement of the two teams passes the eye test pretty well and that kind of surprises me since I would think Castleton is the type of outlier that might really be treated unusually in a computer formula.

kujay, I think this is clearly not a NT team, and I see a clear difference between them and Castleton.

Similar against top 50 (although Castleton's top 50 was all top 20, so that's significantly tougher)
Castleton significantly better against 51-100
Castleton signiicantly more impressive as far as their wins in the other ranges.

To me this is a no-brainer that Castleton has the better resume.

Posted by girt25 on 12/30/2011 3:46:00 PM (view original):
kujay, I think this is clearly not a NT team, and I see a clear difference between them and Castleton.

Similar against top 50 (although Castleton's top 50 was all top 20, so that's significantly tougher)
Castleton significantly better against 51-100
Castleton signiicantly more impressive as far as their wins in the other ranges.

To me this is a no-brainer that Castleton has the better resume.

Agreed.  I'm just noting my surprise that seble seems to have separated these teams in correct manner.  (my opinion, of course)

Let's break it down even further.  They are 5-1 against RPI teams 50-68, often winnign by 10 or so, but getting blown out in the one loss.  That tells me they are better than the high-end PIT teams.  They  are 0-11 against the RPI top 20, losing by an average of double digits and getting blown out often.  That tells me they aren't even close to the top 20.  What makes it difficult is that they ANYONE from RPI 21-49.

Given that breakdown, it's clear they are closer to the PIT than the top of the NT, but it also tells me that they are, on average (excluding the blowout loss against #54 RPI) approximately 10 points better than the better teams in the PIT.  I'll penalize them for lack of wins and lack of high-quality wins, and I haven't seen the competition, but I think that team should be a 13 or 14 seed. 

Yes, 12 seed.

Why r u surprised kujay. Castleton has 24 rpi, Fisk has 58 rpi. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 12/30/2011 5:31:00 PM (view original):
Why r u surprised kujay. Castleton has 24 rpi, Fisk has 58 rpi. 

Unlike girt, I don't see a clear difference.  (If you dig a bit, yes.  Cosmetically they are quite similar.)

Guess just a bit of distrust the projections are working correctly based on what's been posted the past couple of weeks so I was happy to see a scenario that seems to be working well.  Especially since things often fail at the extremes and a Castleton team that has played 6 games against the top 4 in RPI meets that criteria.

they got a 10 btw

Posted by girt25 on 12/30/2011 2:17:00 PM (view original):
tianyi, the Projection Report is ironclad, other than adjustments to avoid early conference matchups. So if the PR lists them as an 8, they will be an 8.

That said, to me this is a borderline NT team with an RPI that's just overinflated from getting beat up by a bunch of good teams. I tend to agree with corn's assertion that they're a last four in sort of team.

(Worth noting that under the old system they would've been a lock to make it as well, based purely on RPI.)

I'm gonna have to disagree a bit here.  This past season in Knight, the projection report had me barely sneaking into the NT, last 15 seed (or maybe 1st 16 seed).  When the brackets came out, I was a 3 seed in the PIT.   

Posted by dcy0827 on 1/1/2012 1:08:00 AM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 12/30/2011 2:17:00 PM (view original):
tianyi, the Projection Report is ironclad, other than adjustments to avoid early conference matchups. So if the PR lists them as an 8, they will be an 8.

That said, to me this is a borderline NT team with an RPI that's just overinflated from getting beat up by a bunch of good teams. I tend to agree with corn's assertion that they're a last four in sort of team.

(Worth noting that under the old system they would've been a lock to make it as well, based purely on RPI.)

I'm gonna have to disagree a bit here.  This past season in Knight, the projection report had me barely sneaking into the NT, last 15 seed (or maybe 1st 16 seed).  When the brackets came out, I was a 3 seed in the PIT.   

that far down the bracket the auto bids can eff you if there are upsets in the sim conferences...

ETA: not sure that happened here, just saying...