Posted by jdno on 3/17/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kmasonbx on 3/17/2012 12:58:00 PM (view original):
This is the problem with the EE logic, guards are WAY more likely to stay all 4 years then bigs. A big with equivalent ratings and equivalent stats would almost definitely have left early. In all my seasons the only players I've ever had leave early have been PFs or Cs, I even had a guard lead the nation in scoring as a Junior and he stayed.
I'm definitely on this bandwagon as I've observed the same thing. All my EE's have been non-guards (have had some SF EE's, too), what's up with that?
In my small sample size, I have had 13 post players drafted and only 4 guards. And I distinictly remembering having guards get shut out of the draft that I felt definitely should have been drafted, whereas I have also had post players get drafted when I was really surprised by it. So just like in real life, the NBA favors tall guys (and good times)?
I do think bigs go more unexpectantly. They seem to have a proclivity to leave when they shouldn't (at least based on ratings in comparison to other players). Out of my 13 post players, 5 went early and one was a juco. So 5/12 is 41.7% early rate. However, 2 of them had absolutely no business leaving at all.
As for the guards, 2 out of the 4 went early. So that is a 50% rate. However, both SHOULD have left. I knew going into the season I was losing them.
The numbers are wayyyyy too small of a sample size to really get any feeling from them, but I thought I would throw them out there for the kicks and giggles.