Number One Pick Topic

mburgy
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I have the number one pick in an upcoming draft and I'm between 4 players for my pick. Need a little advice on this one:

1st guy: 20y.o. SS (will play 3B eventually) with the following projected cores: 68 contact, 100 power, 74 L, 89 R, 62 Eye, 69 BR, 65 SPD, 97 DUR, 100 HLTH, 70 Range, 87 Glove, 84 arm

2nd guy: 18 y.o. SP, 81 STA, 30 DUR, 73 HLTH, 95 MKUP, 72 Control, 94 L, 100 R, 43 Vel, 100 G/F, 81 1st (4 seam), 81 2nd (Curve), 58 3rd (Change), 63 4th (Slider)

3rd Guy: 20 y.o. SP, 78 STA, 31 DUR, 96 HLTH, 100 MKUP, 89 Control, 62 L, 66 R, 94 Vel, 93 G/F, 92 1st (Sinker), 83 2nd (Slider), 60 3rd (Curve), 54 4th (Change), 30 5th (4 seam)

4th guy: 22 y.o. RF, 76 Contact, 96 Power, 75 DUR, 95 L, 90 R, 100 HLTH, 63 SPD, 51 Eye, 74 BR, 64 Range, 44 Glove, 88 arm.

Any advice would be appreciated. I'm leaning towards the 2nd guy, but his health scares me. 3rd guy will probably be the most consistent of the group. 1st guy is intriguing as a 3B, and 4th guy looks like an OPS machine, but can't field worth a crap.
4/23/2012 1:58 PM
willsauve
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#2 no brainer
4/23/2012 2:09 PM
tecwrg
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There's nothing wrong with 73 health.

Depends on your needs . . . #1 should be a great 3B, #2 should be a great SP.  I'd go with #2 under that adage that you can never have enough pitching.

#3 is nothing special.  Certainly not first overall quality.

Also, FYI . . . pitch names (slider, curve, etc.) are not relevant.  Only the ratings.
4/23/2012 2:21 PM
moethedog
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#2 is way good., you fnd relievers with vL and vR that high, once in a while.  Rarely starters.  Add his GB ration and two pitches in the 80's and the Makeup...he's a Cy candidate every year.

On the other hand #1 (if he hits projections...he's 20 right now.  Would need to know what his numbers look like) is 40+ HR guy, year in and year out....forever.  Will hit 50...if you're in a neutral or better park.  And he plays every day. 

#3 isn't special.   4's OK,..not in the class as 1 and 2.

Are you in a pitcher's park?  #2 will be phenominal.

In a hitter's park, #1 is terrifically terrific.

Take your pick. 

4/23/2012 3:20 PM
burnsy483
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If you trust your projected ratings, #2 is the answer.  Any starting pitcher with 90+ splits is a beast.  He is MUCH better than #3.

#1 will be a fantastic player.  That said, it's hard to find a pitcher as good as #2 could be.
4/23/2012 4:40 PM
rangerup
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1 and 2 are both great....but I would go with 2, as you can have a better chance of filling that 40 homer, 3B slot through free agency down the road without offering a max contract.  Which is what you will spend to get that pitcher later in life.  Pitching costs a lot more via FA than position players do.
4/23/2012 4:43 PM
mburgy
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Thanks for the advice everyone. #2 was my first choice, but I was hesitant after looking at #1. I always go for pitching if I can when I'm drafting in the top 5 because great pitching is so hard to come by in this game without paying a boatload in FA.
4/24/2012 9:29 AM
mitchrapp
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If 1 and 2 get to those ratings, 2 easy. When they get older, a SP, will still be very effective as his R and L drop down to 80ish. So he could still be a stud at 35-37 but once that 3B power drops, say to 85,, he becomes just an average player. 
4/24/2012 12:36 PM
overeasy
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Posted by mitchrapp on 4/24/2012 12:36:00 PM (view original):
If 1 and 2 get to those ratings, 2 easy. When they get older, a SP, will still be very effective as his R and L drop down to 80ish. So he could still be a stud at 35-37 but once that 3B power drops, say to 85,, he becomes just an average player. 
He didn't give us patience ratings, so who knows if he still plays for his team that long.
But irregardless of the patience rating, I would take the #2 pitcher even if he goes FA after his first long term deal and the others will resign forever.
4/24/2012 3:45 PM
jptrainwreck
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Can I assume that the projections look in line with current ratings?
i.e.  player 1 is 20 or so points off his projections in all the categories, and player 2 is 25 or so off of them?
Also assuming you have the same budget for HS and College scouting...
4/24/2012 3:47 PM
silentpadna
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Posted by mburgy on 4/23/2012 1:58:00 PM (view original):
I have the number one pick in an upcoming draft and I'm between 4 players for my pick. Need a little advice on this one:

1st guy: 20y.o. SS (will play 3B eventually) with the following projected cores: 68 contact, 100 power, 74 L, 89 R, 62 Eye, 69 BR, 65 SPD, 97 DUR, 100 HLTH, 70 Range, 87 Glove, 84 arm

2nd guy: 18 y.o. SP, 81 STA, 30 DUR, 73 HLTH, 95 MKUP, 72 Control, 94 L, 100 R, 43 Vel, 100 G/F, 81 1st (4 seam), 81 2nd (Curve), 58 3rd (Change), 63 4th (Slider)

3rd Guy: 20 y.o. SP, 78 STA, 31 DUR, 96 HLTH, 100 MKUP, 89 Control, 62 L, 66 R, 94 Vel, 93 G/F, 92 1st (Sinker), 83 2nd (Slider), 60 3rd (Curve), 54 4th (Change), 30 5th (4 seam)

4th guy: 22 y.o. RF, 76 Contact, 96 Power, 75 DUR, 95 L, 90 R, 100 HLTH, 63 SPD, 51 Eye, 74 BR, 64 Range, 44 Glove, 88 arm.

Any advice would be appreciated. I'm leaning towards the 2nd guy, but his health scares me. 3rd guy will probably be the most consistent of the group. 1st guy is intriguing as a 3B, and 4th guy looks like an OPS machine, but can't field worth a crap.
You haven't shared your scouting levels for COL/HS - which are very important context, but assuming they're equal and assuming the projections are even close to accurate:

You can play 40-50 seasons or more of HBD and never have an opportunity to sign a guy as good as #2 (unless you're spending $110M max contract on a FA guy, and even then you have to have the tie-breakers to win that bid).  #1 is certainly a top of the draft talent in almost every situation - except this one....IMHO.

[Edit] - I see you have $14M in each, so I would also look closely to see how far away from the projected numbers your guys are currently.  Sometimes the gaps are too big to jump.  FWIW, HS guys usually progress more (but not in every single case).  But again, all things being equal, based on what you've said, #2 is they guy I'd pick.
4/25/2012 12:42 PM (edited)
taz21
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what padna said, I was guess you're scouting wasn't super high, still 14/14 isn't terrible, looks like a stellar class.  curent ratings will tell you a lot in this case.  That poor fielding guy at #4, could make an adequate LF if your scouting numbers are off there.  #2 is a no braininer, scouting discrepencies aside.  What are their signability?  What else do you have in the system?
4/25/2012 2:04 PM
rangerup
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#2 and there really shouldn't even be a discussion.  With his splits ( I am assuming he makes projections here for the sake of argument on the numbers we do know), a groundball/flyball rating of 100 and a durability of 30......build any kind of team around him to get to the playoffs at all and you will put some hurt on people in a short series.
4/25/2012 4:32 PM
mburgy
Posts: 130 (0)
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I was actually out of town when budgets were distributed, else I would have raised the scouting MUCH higher, but yes I'm at 14/14, which isn't bad, but not great either. Wish I could have that one back. Here's their current ratings with projected in parentheses

#1, the SS- Overall 69(94), Range 65(70), Glove 63(87), Arm 75(84), DUR 78 (97), HLTH 89 (100), SPD 65 (65), PAT 54 (75), TMP 91 (91), MKP 78 (82), CON 50 (68), PWR 81 (100), vL 49 (74), vR 56 (89), BE 50 (62), BR 54 (69)

#2, the SP- OVR 54 (89), DUR 25 (30), HLTH 69 (73), PAT 46 (58), TMPR 30 (30), MKP 80 (95), STA 54 (81), CNTL 42 (72), vL 53 (94), vR 59 (100), VEL 33 (43), GF 76 (100), 1st 67 (81) 2nd 60 (81), 3rd 31 (58), 4th 42 (63)

Both are looking to sign for slot money.

Thanks again

4/28/2012 11:20 AM
mrauseo
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It's going to be tough for the SP to hit those projections based on his currents. Should still be excellent though.
4/29/2012 12:12 PM
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