I got the 5th overall in tomorrow's draft and I'm trying to decide between two prospects:

Guy 1: RP   18 YO. 

Current 58 OVER. 73 DUR, 89 HLTH, 67 PATIENC, 37 TEMPER, 91 Make Up. 34 STAMINA, 61 CNTRL, 44 vL 48 vR, 67 VLCT, 73 GRNDBL, 77 1st P, 59 2nd P

Projected 86 OVER. 90 DUR, 98 HLTH, 100 PATIENC, 33 TEMPER, 100 Make Up. 47 STAMINA, 84 CNTRL, 64 vL 72 vR, 83 VLCT, 89 GRNDBL, 97 1st P, 73 2nd P

Guy 2: INF 18 YO, 

Current  42 OVER, 71 RANGE, 59 GLOVE, 66 ARM, 59 ACCURACY, 41 DUR, 69 HLTH, 56 SPEED, 58 PATIENCE, 84 TEMPER, 74 MAKE UP. 47 CONTACT, 53 PWR, 38 vL 37 vR, 35 EYE, 49 BASERUNNING 35 BUNT

Projected 79 OVER, 92 RANGE, 90 GLOVE, 88 ARM, 84 ACCURACY, 73 DUR, 74 HLTH, 56 SPEED, 88 PATIENCE, 82 TEMPER, 84 MAKE UP. 82 CONTACT, 70 PWR, 66 vL 60 vR, 51 EYE, 85 BASERUNNING 58 BUNT.

My HS Scouting is $16M.

I got Guy 1 ranked ahead for now but I'm concerned that his splits project so low.

I vote Guy 1, because his overall is projected to be 7 pts higher...

Posted by stevedotdec on 5/1/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
I vote Guy 1, because his overall is projected to be 7 pts higher...

I know... my main concern is that if he misses his projections by a little bit, his splits might be too low to be an ML player. No?

The second guy looks to be an elite shortstop. Player one a setup b, with low makeup. There's a lot of other info needed to consider that you didn't give us

Posted by a_ersberg on 5/1/2012 5:08:00 PM (view original):
The second guy looks to be an elite shortstop. Player one a setup b, with low makeup. There's a lot of other info needed to consider that you didn't give us

What other info? Ask and I'll provide. Need to get this one right.

Scouting amount for high school and current ratings

Posted by a_ersberg on 5/1/2012 5:37:00 PM (view original):
Scouting amount for high school and current ratings

Updated.

First of all, no disrespect intended, but anyone basing a recommendation on OVR still has a lot to figure out. It has nothing to do with anything.

I think you're right to be concerned with the pitcher's splits. Beyond that, RPs are a dime a dozen and the rest of the pool would have to be pretty crappy for me to take one at no. 5. If the SS makes projections he's a potential All-Star and GG, and even if he falls short I'd expect him to be a very good player.

Between those two guys, it's the shortstop. He's not a lock to get to those fielding ratings though. Lots of ground to make up. But even if he ends up being a 3B, he's has more value than the RP.

Posted by stevedotdec on 5/1/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
I vote Guy 1, because his overall is projected to be 7 pts higher...

steve, OVR means next to nothing. Like GD, it might gauge the RANGE of talent they have (no 80 OVR player will be in the minors, just like no 550 rated player wouldn't be recruited by a D3 team) but some are better than others. There are reasons why 74 OVRs are more decorated than their 80 OVR counterparts (just like how a 515 rated player could be better than the 550). Sometimes, ratings that mean very little can be overvalued in a player (just like stamina can boost the ratings of a D3 player by a bunch).

Hope that makes sense to all the GD coaches.

I think you could get that RP with a 2nd or 3rd round pick... not 5th overall.  There has to be better options

Posted by stevedotdec on 5/1/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
I vote Guy 1, because his overall is projected to be 7 pts higher...

I was hoping people could guess that I was kidding, though maybe my slow start to my HBD career made people think I was serious

Posted by stevedotdec on 5/1/2012 7:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by stevedotdec on 5/1/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
I vote Guy 1, because his overall is projected to be 7 pts higher...

I was hoping people could guess that I was kidding, though maybe my slow start to my HBD career made people think I was serious

I was worried, steve. I really didn't think I'd have to explain that lol.

Steve, I'm glad you found this place comfortable enough to kick off your shoes and sprawl all over the couch but stfu for now so I know who do draft and why.

Also take into consideration the scouting budgets of the four teams ahead of you.