What to do with this guy Topic

bglick
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He played terribly for me last season, but his overall rating causes him to ask for a huge arb amount $9.1mm. If I sign him to a long term deal, he wants $8.750 per season for 4 years. What should I do with him?

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ryan Garko
2/5/2014 11:47 AM
MikeT23
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A passable 2B who can OPS .750 is pretty valuable to me.   Only you can decide his value to you.

2/5/2014 12:00 PM
bglick
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If I keep $20mm in training, how will his decline be since he has such a low makeup rating?
2/5/2014 12:09 PM
burnsy483
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I actually like the guy.  I'd probably sign him too.  Make the last year a mutual option.

He probably won't decline before that.  If he does, it would be a little in the range/power department.  
2/5/2014 12:12 PM
bglick
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How often do players decline mutual options in the final year (i.e. opt to be FA)?
2/5/2014 12:14 PM
MikeT23
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He'll only be 31 at the end of a 4 year deal.  He might lose a point or two in range/power but that's about it. 

Players declining mutual options seems to be unpredictable to me. 
2/5/2014 12:21 PM
burnsy483
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It's kind of random, but it seems to correlate somewhat with what their salary is.  If you're giving him a salary he's happy with (and he should be, it's what he's asking for) there's a good chance he'll stay.  I don't have a percentage # for you.

If you think he's making too much money, another thing you can do is load up the last year of the contract, and decline the option and eat the buyout that year.
2/5/2014 12:23 PM
bglick
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I was actually thinking about signing him to a 5 year deal (the length of the deal isn't what bothers me, it's the dollar value as I feel $9mm for him is overpaying him since he's a below average 2b, and certainly not an all star). Would he be ok for his age 32 season too then?

Is there a benefit to giving him a mutual option over a team option?
2/5/2014 12:24 PM
MikeT23
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If the team declines, you pay the buyout.  Not so if the player declines.

He probably won't be a passable 2B at 32.    But, if you sign him to a backloaded 5 year mutual option, you can bail on him if he isn't.
2/5/2014 12:38 PM
burnsy483
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If he's a below average 2B in your world, I get not signing him.  I feel like he's above-average in most worlds, though.  Second basemen who can walk and hit for power are very nice players.

If I were to sign him, it would be for the 4 years he's asking for.
2/5/2014 1:11 PM (edited)
bglick
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Wait why would I backload it though? If he declines too much in his final season then I have to buy him out, wasted cash essentially, if he's good enough to keep I'm paying him more than when he was more productive. 

I mean I was already planning on playing him at LF for the forseeable future if that changes anything. Although I suppose he could garner interest in the trade market as a 2B. 
2/5/2014 1:08 PM
burnsy483
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If you see him as a LF, I would trade him to someone who would play him at 2B.  Or, you should play him at 2B.

I don't do it often, but backloading the contract to the option year means that you can delay paying him what he's asking for, freeing up more salary for the years you have him.  Yes, you have dead $ you'd have to pay in the last year, but ideally it helps your team in the previous 3.  If he's asking for $35M over 4 years, the best way to have him for 3 years, AND pay him the least amount of $ possible is to backload to the option year and decline it if/when the time comes.
2/5/2014 1:16 PM
burnsy483
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If you're thinking about doing that, I would sign him to 5 years, as I think he'd be a valuable 2B in the 4th year as well.  I think the 5th year starts to get a little fishy, though.
2/5/2014 1:19 PM
MikeT23
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It's a funds management thing for me.    If I'm going to give a 5/100 deal, I'm going to put 25 in the option year.   That gives me 5 seasons to sort it out.   And, in my most "cap challenging season", based on several factors(arb, FA, retirements, etc), I'm going to give 10.  I may have a 25/10/20/20/25 set-up.   Or a 10/25/20/20/25,   But, if I'm giving an option to a guy I'm not sure I'll want to keep, it will be the max.   If I'm sure I want to keep him in that final year, he doesn't get an option. 

2/5/2014 1:41 PM
pjfoster13
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bglick I'm curious as to why this guy's stats declined so badly even though he is in his prime. I notice that his 2Bs and HRs are almost identical, and his isolated discipline is about the same as his career average, his iso power slightly lower... are we willing to simply attribute his batting average to bad luck or was there a manager settings configuration that caused this. 

Am I right to have noticed a correlation trend between hitting & running frequency (too high I think, but not sure) contributing to wild decreases in batting average, fewer walks, and higher strikeouts?
2/5/2014 2:44 PM
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