Just curious to see what others would think of this battle that happened between my school and another recently in D1. (The other coach and I obviously shared information after the fact and he is fine with me sharing this on the forum). 

I am the loser in this case, so hats off to him for blocking the poach attempt.

The question is, how much value is there per letter grade of prestige?  I thought it was much more than 20% per letter grade. 

But, if my calculations are right, it's probably 15-20% per letter grade (I think)....  So are my calculations right?  how does this jive with others experiences?

The C- prestige school's effort:
82 HV's
5 CV's
10 SVs
10 min promised
3 letters
2 phone calls

The B prestige:
65 HVs
11 SVs
guaranteed start
guaranteed 10 min
21 phone calls
10 letters.

My math, translating everything to HV effort:
- cancel out the SVs since we did about the same
- cancel out the 10 min promised since we both offered

- give me one more HV for the promised start (how much is a promised start worth?  Maybe more than 1 HV??)

- throw out the phone calls and letters, as they are in higher prestige school's favor and only minor effort

- count his 5 CVs as = 11.5 HV (2.30 HV = 1 CV, a guess?  I know there is debate on this, and it may matter some)
throw out the phone calls and letters as they are probably very minor effort…

so that's 93.5 HV to 66 HV. meaning he did about* 41% more effort (66x0.41 = 27.06)....  27.06+66 = 93.06 == C- school wins

*I say "about," because I did short change the B team by 1 SV, 19 phone calls and 7 letters... but he got considering credit.

He won the battle at the 8am cycle on the final day.  It was very close.  I came in late trying to poach on day of signings and I think he was on the guy from the first day.

Reflecting on this, it would be real important to know how much 'considering credit' is worth per day or per cycle...

When trying to evaluate the budget and whether or not I could battle, I figured out his HV cost about $315 and mine cost $430. so I was spending about ~35% more than him per HV.

because of the slight distance advantage by the C- school, it almost negates the B school prestige advantage when thinking about the budget.

The B prestige school actually spent a hair more: $31,940 vs. $30,740 C- school.  C- school had 3 scholarships open, B school had 4...

But in battles inside the 360 circle, if the recruit is closer to the other school it can really negate that prestige advantage. when you knock off that 35% discount he gets for being so close to the guy, all the sudden 6% overall advantage is almost meaningless

(this assumes the player correctly does the most efficient recruiting of course)

I suppose it's possible that A prestige schools have an even greater advantage than B vs. C (i.e. the ratio may get even more in favor of higher prestige schools?)


 

Full letter is around 40-50%, so this looks about right. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 9/16/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
Full letter is around 40-50%, so this looks about right. 

but I had more than full letter grade, and was only 41% advantage... ?  so it must be considerably less than 40-50% per letter grade.

I was expecting about 60-80% advantage since I had 1.5 grade advantage (or maybe it's better put, 1.66?  Since each grade is divided into thirds?)

What do you mean by value in terms of a percentage? A B school has to put in 20-40% less effort to land a recruit versus a C school, is that what you're saying?

Posted by carl3298 on 9/16/2014 1:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 9/16/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
Full letter is around 40-50%, so this looks about right. 

but I had more than full letter grade, and was only 41% advantage... ?  so it must be considerably less than 40-50% per letter grade.

I was expecting about 60-80% advantage since I had 1.5 grade advantage (or maybe it's better put, 1.66?  Since each grade is divided into thirds?)

You might be on the low end of B prestige after the PIT/17 win season, and your opponent could be on the high end of C-, so effective difference is barely more than a letter. If we give you a 42% edge, just ahead of the 40% to account for you being a little more than a full letter ahead, all he need is to gain 3% back from considering credits to win the battle. 

And given that he signed the guy at the 8am cycle on the final day, the battle was extremely close and settled by a couple of percent difference in effort. At this point, you are potentially looking at rounding errors being the difference maker, such as CV = 2.35 HV, full letter is actually 39.6%, considering credit is worth 4% here, etc.

Posted by tianyi7886 on 9/16/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
Full letter is around 40-50%, so this looks about right. 

I have always used the 70% figure from losymyth's Q&A thread, is this no longer accurate?

Posted by eflhoca on 9/16/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
What do you mean by value in terms of a percentage? A B school has to put in 20-40% less effort to land a recruit versus a C school, is that what you're saying?

Yes.  the higher prestige school needs less effort; or the lower prestige school needs that much more effort. 

in this example - it was 94 HV vs. 66 HV and it was a virtual tie

you could also think of it as a ratio I guess. - 9.6 to 6.6, or essentially 10:6 ratio (5:3)

meaning for every 10 HV C- school does, B school only needs to do 6 to keep up.

did the player have a close to home preference? i assume favorite school was not an issue?

it is an interesting case study. by my math, the c- school only put in 37% more effort. even if you take the extreme case, the worst possible B and the best possible C-, its a full grade, and i'd expect the B to win. its not definitively known how considering credit works, i think the best source is a sitemail i sent seble where he agreed considering credit could never change who was in the lead from one cycle to the next, on its own (he did say he thought that was true... not that it was absolutely true). in that sitemail i suggested something like a % increase in existing credit every so many cycles (possibly every cycle). he didn't explicitly confirm but the only other mechanism i see that can't flip the lead is a flat increase, which i think is fairly unlikely, or a % which accrues over time and is applied in the credit calculation, like prestige. assuming the increase to the % bonus would be linear over time, that would also result in a system where one person could not pass the other through considering credit (i think, assuming the intervals for the increases are constant, not relative to the time you show up on the list). 

i had always assumed you only got considering credit for the credit you had thus far, not a % multiplier that would apply to future credit as well. but maybe that is wrong? or maybe considering credit is just pretty damn important. i've always thought it was significant but i think many think it is negligible. anyway, OP, what was the timing of the effort? like, how much did the other guy have in when you jumped him, and when did you guys go all in?

also, can you provide a link to the two team's history pages? its worth looking at the prestige of each school more closely to see if its reasonable to assume that prestige grade is close to 1.0 or not, maximally if could be 1.66 grades, so that is a big assumption without seeing both schools history.

Posted by clouseb on 9/16/2014 1:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 9/16/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
Full letter is around 40-50%, so this looks about right. 

I have always used the 70% figure from losymyth's Q&A thread, is this no longer accurate?

IMO, it was never accurate, but i also figured out my HV:CV ratio was screwed up, and i can't find the old prestige case studies i did (well, can't might not be the right word), so i lost some confidence in my prestige figure at the same time. i seem to remember i figured prestige off of battles where both coaches used predominantly the same tool, where cv:hv wouldn't be a factor - with hv:cv and prestige the two big factors, i always looked for cases where one was nearly a constant, to evaluate the other. but still, its been so many years, and i was so crappy at d1 recruiting back then, so i don't strongly contest the 70% figure. but i also think it is significantly too high, and always have felt that way. to me, there is actually a more compelling argument for 10% per partial grade than there is for 20% per partial grade, which i consider the absolute min and max possible values (thats 33% and 73% per grade. i use 50% per grade personally). i figure old admin could have set the value off partial or full grades, and most likely used a round number. but maybe he didn't. my own calculations came in scattered around 50% so thats what i go with, but its almost impossible to get really good examples. knowing the letter grade of prestige is so ambiguous, when you consider prestige on both sides (a 1 grade prestige difference, A vs B, could be .67 grades with the low A and high B, or 1.33 grades with a high A and low B - factor of 2 difference - and how often do you get battles over 1 grade of prestige?). because of the ambiguity in prestige, i gave up trying to nail it down completely, although i think there are now ways to do so if you are sufficiently motivated, without relying on battle history comparisons. 

Good questions regarding close to home preference and favorite school.... don't know the answer to either question.

here are the schools in question:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=14074 (greatest school of all-time)

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13899 (some other school)

and just to rub it in, he beat me in exhibition.  jerk.  ;)

I think I put 15-20 HV in right off the bat (I think at the 8 or 11am cycle day of signings), ultimately, I went all in by 8pm signing if I recall.  maybe saved some for after signings. 

I think the other coach went all-in as soon as I showed up on the board.  He had fended off Indiana and put in 20K (he was 'tight' with the recruit) and dumped another 10k in when I came along

(I didn't see the whole Indiana battle, since I scouted the state later looking for a 'weaker' school to go after - very bad luck, or stupid, on my part)

The player in question was 30 miles from me. I had spent $20k and was very tight on him with $10k left in the tank. And once Xavier showed up on him, I threw the entire $10k on him. I was after him from the get go, but didn't show up on him until 2nd cycle of opening day, and then was alone on him by 3rd cycle.

Enter Xavier!
I thought I might have a shot to get him, if Xavier had to battle for his other 3 signed recruits .. otherwise I thought I'd lose him down the stretch. I was never behind though and obviously clinging on at the very end.

I think I'm close to getting to a C though.

I think it must be the considering credit that helped more than I'd have otherwise realized in this case given how the "numbers" break down.  Otherwise, to me, Xavier wins this one fairly easily based on my past observation and personal case studies and such. 

Or, as somebody else asked, if he was a "close to home" kid, then apparently that holds some real recruiting value and the C- school would've had an advantage here. 

Posted by ixolabrat on 9/16/2014 2:41:00 PM (view original):

The player in question was 30 miles from me. I had spent $20k and was very tight on him with $10k left in the tank. And once Xavier showed up on him, I threw the entire $10k on him. I was after him from the get go, but didn't show up on him until 2nd cycle of opening day, and then was alone on him by 3rd cycle.

Enter Xavier!
I thought I might have a shot to get him, if Xavier had to battle for his other 3 signed recruits .. otherwise I thought I'd lose him down the stretch. I was never behind though and obviously clinging on at the very end.

I think I'm close to getting to a C though.

thanks for posting! sounds like your effort was in early, that could have helped, although it sounds like carl jumped in fairly early too (not a cycle before signings poach anyway). do you recall if the guy had a close to home preference?

Posted by carl3298 on 9/16/2014 2:17:00 PM (view original):
Good questions regarding close to home preference and favorite school.... don't know the answer to either question.

here are the schools in question:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=14074 (greatest school of all-time)

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13899 (some other school)

and just to rub it in, he beat me in exhibition.  jerk.  ;)

thanks! you are in a weak a10 (that is important in the prestige calculation), i think based on that and the pi1 that it probably was a very low b, and also some other school has a solid record for 3 straight seasons, you can hit a C with good records like that without any post season. i wouldn't swear thats just a hair below a c but i think its very likely a top half c-. so overall letter grades i could believe 1-1.25. 1 exactly is a tough sell though, and even with that, it calls into question if even 50% is too high. except that close to home thing, i really do think that is more significant than people give it credit for.

actually, im that way on all those fronts - considering credit, close to home, favorite school, far from home - i put more stock into all those than the forum community in general - thing is, none of it except maybe far from home is going to matter much in small battles, where small swings of money outweigh 10 and 20% advantages trivially. but in high d1 where you can get 80k deep into a player easy, these things definitely matter. for what its worth, which isn't much, as im pretty confident im wrong, i put about a 10% effect on all that crap, except away from home, which i am too unsure of to even quantify. its a sliding scale, close to and far from home, but a guy 30 miles away, close to home, i wouldn't be at all surprised if that is 10%. same with favorite school. considering credit, i've wondered if its 1% per cycle for a while and have on 2 occasions had some reason to believe it might even be 2-3%, which can add up pretty quick. but not so much in this case, it seems.