I went straight from a D baseline to a BCS school. I took over ETSU with D- prestige, stayed there nine seasons, brought them up to B prestige, and then jumped to C+ South Carolina. I was still a longshot for some B- ACC jobs, which I think is dumb, but going from D- prestige to a BCS job is definitely doable. It's been done over and over. And honesty, it doesn't have to take nine seasons. ETSU was in a competitive division with three other championship-caliber coaches, so NT bids were tough to come by. I ended up jumping after three NT bids, one PIT, three NT wins, and a Sweet Sixteen in my most recent season.
I would say it is probably easier to jump up to low BCS (C prestige) from an established, quality D2 team than from a low D1 team, unless you're in a completely empty conference and have a gold-plated path to the NT every year.