http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=11913363

Check this out, I lost a close one to the crafty Oldresorter. I feel my team is better, but is it? If it is, what am I doing wrong? I have a shot at this NT and I need a mentor to help me sort through press. I truly am not playing it right or maybe I am struggling on the offense side of this team. Anyways, all comments are welcomed.

It's only 1 game.  Overall your team is probably better and at home this is a game you probably win 6 or 7 out of 10 times....this just wasn't one of those times (and you only lost by 3).   No over-reaction needed.

But, one thing I would have done is jiggled up the frontcourt a little bit and attacked his starting C, who's a R/S freshman, has only a 49 ath, and is his best rebounder.  You may have been able to get a few more points there while also snagging an extra rebound or 2.  Those two things can make a big difference in a 3-pt game, but obviously hindsight is 20-20.

Why do you think your team is better?  I'm not saying it isn't, but I'd like to know why you think it is.

On the surface, you lost a close game to the #1 RPI team.  It doesn't seem like something to be upset about.  What didn't go the way you thought it would in that game?

For what it's worth, which ain't a lot, the spread was even and you were at home.  That means the engine thinks your opponent is a couple/few points better than your team.

you are not taking nearly enough 3s with those nice per figures. guards > bigs when it comes to efficiency in this game, and you've got the quality guards to run your offense. so let them run it, and with the lp/per mix on that one dude you might have to go +1 to get him to take half his shots as 3s, which you really want him doing (at least, his ft isnt great so drawing fouls with him isn't that worthwhile). fix your offense and you'll beat your current version of your team 75% of the time. its a nice squad, good luck!

edit: webster should figure prominently into your backup line's offense as well

also look at your fatigue patterns. you are taking too much of a beating inside. you have to be 5 deep in the front court and back court to dominate with press. you have a **** ton of back court, but what about front court? im glancing at this quickly but looks like 4 to me, you may want to use your starting sf in the front court so you have 5 there. he will still get plenty of minutes, and managing fatigue is one of the most critical aspects of press. i havent looked at teh quality of your guys to see how that plays out but you at least should consider it!

Llamanunts: i compared. To me, the only area where he beats me is passing. And it's close. We are faster, more Athletic. Défensive oriented and We can score from everywhere.

I see these as two pretty evenly matched teams.  It's not really all that helpful to compare category by category to see if you have an edge, as it's not decathlon, where you see which team is better at each attribute.

That said, you both run press, and your starters are about equally talented on defense.  You have a large shot blocking advantage, so that's a bit of a plus to you, but he didn't really try to score from areas where your shot blockers were, which works to negate that.  In the end, each of your offenses has to face essentially the same defense.

On offense, you do have a lot more LP, so that's there to try to exploit... but that's not necessarily the best option.  It's a lot harder score with LP than with PER, especially against a press defense.  gillispie is right that you probably should have thrown up more threes with two very good to excellent outside shooters in your lineup.

gillispie is also right that fatigue is a killer.  Slowdown would have been a better tempo option - you were at a substantial stamina disadvantage.  Running slowdown, your starters would have stayed fresher and played more minutes.

For what it's worth, when it comes to evaluating your matchup, I'd take another look at my process if I were you.  You had your team ahead in Speed, Athleticism, and Defense.  Your starting five, overall, were actually slower than the opposition's five by about 20 points.  Starters' ATH were within 10 points of each other.  Starters' DEF were only four points apart.  Four points is essentially a wash.  You did have a rebounding advantage, but that didn't work out... partially due to stamina issues.

Again - I see these two teams being of similar quality, but I think oldresorter's team is slightly better, and would win about 55-60 out of 100 matchups on a neutral court.

That may read more negative than I mean it to.  You have a good team.  It's just one game, and it was a tight one, tied with under a minute left.

Year but I like your analysis. It Will help me prepare better. Thanks. I do go 4 deep at pf/c and i don't use My guards as much as i should.

I think you're doing yourself a disservice by scheduling such terrible teams, especially given how good your team is. In all reality you'll only play two or three real games before the tournament, so you can't even evaluate how good the team really is, or what adjustments really work.

Posted by nachopuzzle on 5/10/2015 1:31:00 PM (view original):
I think you're doing yourself a disservice by scheduling such terrible teams, especially given how good your team is. In all reality you'll only play two or three real games before the tournament, so you can't even evaluate how good the team really is, or what adjustments really work.

What she said.

I might not know much, but I would've went uptempo. He went slowdown and that's what beat you. You have the depth and St advantage. Your bench is clearly better. You're only averaging 8 3's a game. I agree with these guys that you should be shooting 15 or more 3's a game. Gillispie1 has helped me alot, good advice by both him and llamanunts.

Posted by llamanunts on 5/10/2015 9:58:00 AM (view original):
Why do you think your team is better?  I'm not saying it isn't, but I'd like to know why you think it is.

On the surface, you lost a close game to the #1 RPI team.  It doesn't seem like something to be upset about.  What didn't go the way you thought it would in that game?

For what it's worth, which ain't a lot, the spread was even and you were at home.  That means the engine thinks your opponent is a couple/few points better than your team.

Is there any real significance to the spread and over/under for these games? Do they really give a clue as to what the engine thinks the outcome may be?

llama: can you elaborate on your last sentence?

The spread is a wild-***-guess at the outcome, based on team ratings and performance to that point in the season.  It's a super-rough estimate of how the game thinks your matchup might play out.  It has very limited value... as in, does the engine think this game is going to be close or not?  Does the engine think these teams play to a roughly similar level?

The only reason I mentioned it above is to say that, essentially, if you have a single-digit spread no loss is shocking.  A one-point spread is just an indicator that your team is probably not worlds better or worse than your opponents'.

Posted by llamanunts on 5/11/2015 1:50:00 PM (view original):
The spread is a wild-***-guess at the outcome, based on team ratings and performance to that point in the season.  It's a super-rough estimate of how the game thinks your matchup might play out.  It has very limited value... as in, does the engine think this game is going to be close or not?  Does the engine think these teams play to a roughly similar level?

The only reason I mentioned it above is to say that, essentially, if you have a single-digit spread no loss is shocking.  A one-point spread is just an indicator that your team is probably not worlds better or worse than your opponents'.

the only thing is, i wouldn't say "does the engine think this game is going to be..." because that makes it sound like the sim engine is making some determination, and its not. they are independent, the sim engine is good, the spread logic is total crap. just ignore it completely, is my suggestion.