Odds are stretched, so your effort advantage wasn't 55-45, it was closer than that.
At D2, with 1 scholarship, you only have 5k. So to go "all-in" on a recruit, he has to be *very* local. Putting all your APs on him isn't going all-in. APs are nowhere near as powerful as visits. You're much better off using some of those APs to establish a foothold on backups (if it's important to your team not to take walk-ons). You gave yourself a good chance fighting an uphill battle on a not-completely local kid against a D1 with only one scholarship. If you'd actually been able to go all-in - i.e., if the kid was a local - your odds would have been much better. 5 HVs is a big impact.