Three players I was 58-60% on. All woulda been higher but I didn't want to promise a start. Lost all three to small schools, one was only at 18% (there was a third team between us).

The system sucks and overvalues a start at a small school v minutes at a big one.

Yeah, I know, I shoulda had a backup plan. F you Mike.

You really don't understand probabilities, do you?

Three guys with a 60% probability dictates that you should get at least one.

Of there's a 40% chance he gets none.

Posted by MonsterTurtl on 5/8/2017 12:37:00 PM (view original):
Three guys with a 60% probability dictates that you should get at least one.

we dont really think that is true, do we?

0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.064

assuming they are independent events - which they seem to be

I don't use dice. I play HD on my computer and it works great.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/8/2017 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Of there's a 40% chance he gets none.

please review basic probability and then try again

I guess, in my haste to make a snide remark, I f'd that one up. So it goes.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/8/2017 3:04:00 PM (view original):
I guess, in my haste to make a snide remark, I f'd that one up. So it goes.

Nice to see you notice it, once every 51,000 times.

Posted by benrudy on 5/8/2017 3:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/8/2017 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Of there's a 40% chance he gets none.

please review basic probability and then try again

Beat me to it.

Posted by lakevin on 5/8/2017 3:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/8/2017 3:04:00 PM (view original):
I guess, in my haste to make a snide remark, I f'd that one up. So it goes.

Nice to see you notice it, once every 51,000 times.

Your tears are comedy for the rest of us.

lakevin, never underestimate the power and influence of Gary Busey, longtime courtside season ticket holder for the Pepperdine Waves!

I was lucky to get Matthews - it was pretty clear I wasn't going to beat you on the other top recruits in So Cal that you had positioned to sign.

OT,

I always questioned the importance of celebrities influence on recruiting (real life). Do you think the average 18 year old knows who Ashley Judd, Bill Murray, or Gary Busey is?

Do you think they care?

I was lucky enough to be in a suite at Texas Stadium a “few” years back. And Roger Staubach and Bob Hayes were in there. A kid about 18 years old knew who Roger Staubach was, but he asked Bob Hayes twice, “now who are you again?” I wanted to slap the kid and tell him he “used” to be the fastest man alive, and to shut up your ignorance is showing. But I kept my mouth shut and was just happy to be there.

I think most 18 year olds, especially stud basketball players, think THEY are the star, and a bunch of old people are the insignificant ones.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/8/2017 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Of there's a 40% chance he gets none.

That's not how multiple probabilities work

Well, the poor wording probably means I was in a rush to be a smartass. Or I'm a dumbass. Or both.