Ok lets start an argument here.... does anyone else feel like SOS is rated TOO high in the overall puzzle?

I'm in an all sim conference (i'm fully aware that is a HUGE part of my problem. But hear me out please)....

I started my non con season 7-3. RPI/SOS was 2/2 at that point. I started 5-0 and was ranked as high as 5. Finished non-con 2-3 and only fell to as low as 8th rank. Good stuff. Seems right and fair to me. Started the projection report at #5.... a 2 seed basically.

Since then, in my terrible sim conference, I've won 14 straight games, mostly blowouts. Lil by lil, I was dropping in rank. I dropped as low as 14. As of now my SOS is 25. I'm still fairly ok with that. (Even tho when Gonzaga goes 25-1 in real life, in the AP they don't drop, they continue to rise)

What I think is odd is the projection report has dropped me to the 14 range. Basically a 4 seed. And there are teams above me at different points of the season that don't make sense.

(Example, not a current exact....) While I was 18-3... rank 10 RPI/SOS 6/22 last 10 10-0 there would be teams above me in the projections at
17-4... rank 13 RPI/SOS 11/20 last 10 9-1.

Why would that equal a higher seed projection than mine? I'm ranked higher, better record, better RPI and SOS was barely below.

I understand if my SOS was 50 and his was 20. That's fair to me. But I just never get love from the projection report. It's been like that for all 3 seasons that I've been a legit contender.

Last thing to add, earlier in the season when my SOS was much better still, I was more irritated with this. Now, not so much as my sim conference has understandably dropped me to 25. But at one point i was projected below a team that I had fairly large advantage in all categories EXCEPT SOS and it was minimal. Like SOS 9 me and SOS 8 for the other team. To me, that should not matter one bit. Both schedules are top 10 in the nation!

SOS is not directly factored into the Proj Report. Rather, each game is given a score. A good proxy is basically to look at the RPI of your opponent and whether you're home or away. Another good proxy is to look at your record vs. RPI Top 50 and then RPI 51-100. You were 4-3 against RPI top 50 after non-con and now...still 4-3 against top 50. You're moving down not because you're getting worse, but because other teams around you are beating top teams.

Right. I really do understand that. I know that's part of it. I just always look at my numbers, and they seem to be better than others that move above me. And it just never seems fair to me.

So when non conference ended and Only was still around, he was RPI/SOS 1/1 and i was 2/2. My conference is 2nd worst RPI and his Green Mountain teams conference is THE worst. Yet he's not moving down an inch. And I've dropped considerably. Of course that team is undefeated, and I had/have 3 losses.

Its just frustrating when I was 2/2 and I've done nothing but win since. My 3 losses in 5 games didn't put a dent in things. But my 14 straight wins has killed me. I guess that's why i feel something is just odd about it. I'm not sure what it is.

Also I know wins against Top 50, then 51-100, and so on... it matters a lot. It's just odd to see a team that's say, 11-9 creeping up on me. No matter who they play.

just venting i guess

Honestly, I have never really paid attention to RPI/SOS or seeding. I don't care what I am "ranked" i just want to win NT games and if you keep winning, you are going to have to play the same teams regardless of where you start.

yeah i do wish there could be some sort of hedge for teams like this, the same way i hate seeing powerhouse teams forget to schedule and get a 7-10 seed.

i think this is actually most frustrating at low D1, because when you're building a team from the ground up, you aren't really aiming to win the NT title yet...but you're trying to increase your prestige. when you go 26-2 with a lot of good non-conf wins and get a 9 seed, it's a lot harder to advance beyond round 2 bc of drawing that 1 seed in round 2.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/27/2018 8:58:00 AM (view original):
Honestly, I have never really paid attention to RPI/SOS or seeding. I don't care what I am "ranked" i just want to win NT games and if you keep winning, you are going to have to play the same teams regardless of where you start.

+1. I never won as a #1 seed, always blew expectations. Reach the NT, these days, if you get two easy games during your run, it's sim luck. All NT teams are stacked except for SIM who gets in.

I guess i'm not really complaining about the seeding itself. And I agree.... it's kinda a whiny thing. Although i would like to accomplish things such as getting my first #1 in my career. Having said that, i agree it doesn't really "matter".

but what i will say, is on the projection report, if it doesn't go by those categories, don't put them on there! And replace them with the categories that it goes by.

I don't wanna click conference scoring leaders, and see heights and weights listed. I want to see relevant things that should be there.

Posted by zorzii on 5/27/2018 9:52:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/27/2018 8:58:00 AM (view original):
Honestly, I have never really paid attention to RPI/SOS or seeding. I don't care what I am "ranked" i just want to win NT games and if you keep winning, you are going to have to play the same teams regardless of where you start.

+1. I never won as a #1 seed, always blew expectations. Reach the NT, these days, if you get two easy games during your run, it's sim luck. All NT teams are stacked except for SIM who gets in.

Totally disagree with this.

Seeding matters. Why would you want to decrease the chances of winning a game? Any game. Let alone a tourney game.

And no. Not all teams that make the tourney are 'stacked'. That's ridiculous.

I also haven't played long enough to where regular season games don't matter. And "as long as I get a 16seed at worst, i'm kosher". I still game plan for every single game. I don't have the experience some of you do, winning titles, making final fours. I'm just getting to that stage. So i'm sure i value some things more than other coaches do at this point.

As far as seeding, it's supposed to reflect the best teams at the top, and the teams that squeeze in at the bottom. Doesn't always work that way of course, for various reasons. But in bathtubhippos example (which I don't agree with 100%, but I understand his point), if I were to get an 8 seed this season, I'd be ******. Cuz i'm probably not beating the top team in my region. And I'd be knocked out in round two. BUT.... I think i'm a good enough team to make an elite 8 and play that 1 seed there, win or lose.

There is definitely a difference in the outcomes based off the seedings. It can work for you or against you.

Posted by Benis on 5/27/2018 10:41:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 5/27/2018 9:52:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/27/2018 8:58:00 AM (view original):
Honestly, I have never really paid attention to RPI/SOS or seeding. I don't care what I am "ranked" i just want to win NT games and if you keep winning, you are going to have to play the same teams regardless of where you start.

+1. I never won as a #1 seed, always blew expectations. Reach the NT, these days, if you get two easy games during your run, it's sim luck. All NT teams are stacked except for SIM who gets in.

Totally disagree with this.

Seeding matters. Why would you want to decrease the chances of winning a game? Any game. Let alone a tourney game.

And no. Not all teams that make the tourney are 'stacked'. That's ridiculous.

I don’t think there is a huge difference between being a 3-6 seed. For that matter I don’t think there is a huge difference between 3-6 and 11-14.

I think there is a big enough difference that you should care. Is there a huge difference between a player with 50 defense and 60 defense? No, not huge. But why would you intentionally choose the 50 defense when you could have the 60 defense? It's only going to increase your chances of winning a game. The same logic applies with seeding. That's all this game is - one big math equation with probabilities. Each game you have a chance you're going to win and you should be looking to increase that chance as best as possible.

If your probability of beating an average 16 seed is 99% while your probability of beating of beating a 14 seed is 95% then you should want to face the 16 seed every single time. Is that 5% difference huge? Maybe, maybe not. But everyone raise their hands if they would prefer to have a 95% chance of winning a game versus 99%.

And then these probabilities are just magnified throughout the entire tournament based upon how things shake out. Why would you want a 99% chance of facing the best team in your bracket when you could only have a 80% chance of facing that team? You don't always need to go through the best team in your bracket to reach the final four, sometimes weaker teams knock them off and then boom - your likelihood of winning another game increases.

I hear what you are saying Benis but I think it's more like the difference between 58 and 60. I think the trade off for those couple few % points is learning how your team plays.

Personally, I get a much better feel for things like distro and o/d pairings when I play good teams as opposed to 10 half way decent sims on the road. Generally speaking, I try to stay away from empty conferences. I feel like those teams of mine get away from me and I become to overconfident.

That last sentence may be me in this case. But i'm unsure. I went 4-3 against top 25 teams. 2 of my losses are against the only two teams that went undefeated this season, title favorite type of teams. And i beat a few solid teams. So I feel i'm up there.

The reason I say i may be over confident is because when the season started, I thought I'd suck this season! And was anticipating next season, which will be much better for me. So after a few decent wins against ranked humans, I didn't think my original personal evaluation of my team was accurate. My sim conference doesn't make me feel any better or worse about my team

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/29/2018 9:16:00 AM (view original):
I hear what you are saying Benis but I think it's more like the difference between 58 and 60. I think the trade off for those couple few % points is learning how your team plays.

Personally, I get a much better feel for things like distro and o/d pairings when I play good teams as opposed to 10 half way decent sims on the road. Generally speaking, I try to stay away from empty conferences. I feel like those teams of mine get away from me and I become to overconfident.

Sure. But why not just do both? I don't think people typically get under seeded because of playing competition that is too tough. Usually its because they have a terrible SOS and haven't played anyone at all. So you don't get a good gauge on your team AND you have a bad seed.

Not saying this is you TD. I know one person in particular who always has a SOS in the 200s and ends up with a 10-12 seed when he should be around 5-6. He never seems to get past 2nd round. Doesn't make any sense to me to do that.

Also, I think my % of 99 to 95 is pretty close. But it actually might be more. I see 14 and 15 seeds pulling upsets most tourneys but I can only think of two 16 over 1s.

Its a big difference IMO.