Has anyone come up with some sort of graph/chart/statistical data on what the odds are for getting drafted early? Of course, freshman, sophomores and juniors have different odds based on their positioning on the draft board. For example, a junior that is in the Top 10 on the draft board might be close to 100%. Maybe sophomore at 80-90%. I was just wondering if there was something like that out there.

Mully did one

Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

That happens pretty frequently

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

I do it all the time, especially if they are in the 30+ range. If I have a guard as a freshman that has a chance of getting drafted and he has green in low post, I"ll leave that alone and won't put any practice time into low post. Or if I have a post player that's green in perimeter. Once he hits his senior year, then I'll put the practice minutes into those categories since I"m going to lose that player no matter what.

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

Of course! But sometimes the player doesn't even regress like I experienced recently.

Posted by thewizard17 on 8/15/2018 8:20:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone come up with some sort of graph/chart/statistical data on what the odds are for getting drafted early? Of course, freshman, sophomores and juniors have different odds based on their positioning on the draft board. For example, a junior that is in the Top 10 on the draft board might be close to 100%. Maybe sophomore at 80-90%. I was just wondering if there was something like that out there.

This is not true. Their position on the draft board has already taken into account their year. So a So. ranked #15 has the exact same chance to leave as a Jr. ranked #15.

And yes, I have charted it out but cant get it cut/pasted into the forum.

Posted by mullycj on 8/16/2018 10:24:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 8/15/2018 8:20:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone come up with some sort of graph/chart/statistical data on what the odds are for getting drafted early? Of course, freshman, sophomores and juniors have different odds based on their positioning on the draft board. For example, a junior that is in the Top 10 on the draft board might be close to 100%. Maybe sophomore at 80-90%. I was just wondering if there was something like that out there.

This is not true. Their position on the draft board has already taken into account their year. So a So. ranked #15 has the exact same chance to leave as a Jr. ranked #15.

And yes, I have charted it out but cant get it cut/pasted into the forum.

Yes. Sophs projected to be ~15 and higher will be likely going. From ~15 to ~28 will be on the fence, and below 28 or so will be “likely staying”. I assume odds get better for leaving as they move higher up the draft board, within their outlook category, such that a soph listed as “likely staying” at 30 has a higher chance of leaving than one at 90.

One of the odd things to me is that 4th year seniors who were ineligible as freshmen are always listed as “on the fence”, even if they’re #1, as in Phelan right now. I have never tracked them, I’d be interested to see if they are legit “on the fence”, as in reasonably close to 50/50, or if they are significantly more likely to leave.

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

It also seems to me, although I don't have data to back it up, that players are listed on the draft board based on specific skills related to their position. For example, if you have a PG with BH/PA in the 90's but a bad PER rating, list him as SG and the system doesn't SG's that can't shoot. Or if you have a great SG with lower BH/PA ratings, list him at PG and the system will think he's not as good.

Posted by dan2044 on 8/16/2018 11:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

It also seems to me, although I don't have data to back it up, that players are listed on the draft board based on specific skills related to their position. For example, if you have a PG with BH/PA in the 90's but a bad PER rating, list him as SG and the system doesn't SG's that can't shoot. Or if you have a great SG with lower BH/PA ratings, list him at PG and the system will think he's not as good.

Nope. Doesn't work.

Posted by dan2044 on 8/16/2018 11:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

It also seems to me, although I don't have data to back it up, that players are listed on the draft board based on specific skills related to their position. For example, if you have a PG with BH/PA in the 90's but a bad PER rating, list him as SG and the system doesn't SG's that can't shoot. Or if you have a great SG with lower BH/PA ratings, list him at PG and the system will think he's not as good.

Yes and no. Certain ratings matter more than others, yes. But I have not seen evidence indicating that the system is not smart enough to detect a coach trying to game it, ie listing an elite frontcourt player with 50 speed, ball handling and pass as a PG to keep him off the board. I’ve seen a few try it, and I haven’t seen it work.

Posted by mullycj on 8/16/2018 10:24:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 8/15/2018 8:20:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone come up with some sort of graph/chart/statistical data on what the odds are for getting drafted early? Of course, freshman, sophomores and juniors have different odds based on their positioning on the draft board. For example, a junior that is in the Top 10 on the draft board might be close to 100%. Maybe sophomore at 80-90%. I was just wondering if there was something like that out there.

This is not true. Their position on the draft board has already taken into account their year. So a So. ranked #15 has the exact same chance to leave as a Jr. ranked #15.

And yes, I have charted it out but cant get it cut/pasted into the forum.

I was under the impression that juniors had a higher chance of getting drafted than sophomores at the same ranking, my bad. Sorry for the misinformation.

Posted by thewizard17 on 8/16/2018 12:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 8/16/2018 10:24:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 8/15/2018 8:20:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone come up with some sort of graph/chart/statistical data on what the odds are for getting drafted early? Of course, freshman, sophomores and juniors have different odds based on their positioning on the draft board. For example, a junior that is in the Top 10 on the draft board might be close to 100%. Maybe sophomore at 80-90%. I was just wondering if there was something like that out there.

This is not true. Their position on the draft board has already taken into account their year. So a So. ranked #15 has the exact same chance to leave as a Jr. ranked #15.

And yes, I have charted it out but cant get it cut/pasted into the forum.

I was under the impression that juniors had a higher chance of getting drafted than sophomores at the same ranking, my bad. Sorry for the misinformation.

Well, this is true in most cases, too. Juniors are all on the fence. So a junior at 70 is indeed more likely to go than a soph at 70.

Well after reading my own post again it can be misleading.

A So. ranked #15 and listed as "Likely Going" would have total ratings ~900 while
the Jr. ranked #15 and listed as "Likely Going" could only be ~850.

So as Shoe said, the Soph would have to be a better player to be projected the same as the Jr.

Posted by shoe3 on 8/16/2018 12:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dan2044 on 8/16/2018 11:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 11:23:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone tried to manipulate the system, so to speak in order to keep a kid an extra year. Say a kid is listed as likely going, have you reduced his minutes? Or reduced his practice numbers to try and retard his improvements, so he drops on the big board rankings.
Just wondering.

It also seems to me, although I don't have data to back it up, that players are listed on the draft board based on specific skills related to their position. For example, if you have a PG with BH/PA in the 90's but a bad PER rating, list him as SG and the system doesn't SG's that can't shoot. Or if you have a great SG with lower BH/PA ratings, list him at PG and the system will think he's not as good.

Yes and no. Certain ratings matter more than others, yes. But I have not seen evidence indicating that the system is not smart enough to detect a coach trying to game it, ie listing an elite frontcourt player with 50 speed, ball handling and pass as a PG to keep him off the board. I’ve seen a few try it, and I haven’t seen it work.

How about listing an elite PG as a Center..?