It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

the one you need more is more likely to leave

Likely staying in school.
Likely going to the pros.

The sophomore will get asked first, and will be drafted ahead, if the final, unpublished big board retains this order. But he will be less likely to say yes to the NBA this year. But if he moves up a spot or two, he’ll be on the fence, and if he rises to be projected as a lottery pick, he’ll be likely going.

Players with more years of eligibility need to be higher on the big board to move up the probability ladder.

Posted by shoe3 on 10/29/2018 5:01:00 PM (view original):
The sophomore will get asked first, and will be drafted ahead, if the final, unpublished big board retains this order. But he will be less likely to say yes to the NBA this year. But if he moves up a spot or two, he’ll be on the fence, and if he rises to be projected as a lottery pick, he’ll be likely going.

Players with more years of eligibility need to be higher on the big board to move up the probability ladder.

You explained this in the coaches corner and still not getting it. I know you're trying to be helpful, but it's not making sense to me.

You said the "sophomore will get asked first , if the final, unpublished big board retains this order? What unpublished big board? But then you go on to say he will less likely to say yes to the NBA this year.

I understand about getting drafted ahead, but just more concerned whether he gets drafted or not.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Benis,
Are you able to break down those %'s by class. For example a So. with likely going has a X% chance of leaving and a Jr. with likely going has a X% chance?

Same with likely staying.

Posted by drichar138 on 10/29/2018 10:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Benis,
Are you able to break down those %'s by class. For example a So. with likely going has a X% chance of leaving and a Jr. with likely going has a X% chance?

Same with likely staying.

You bet your *** I can.

Soph likely going - 87.9%
JR likely going - 87.0%

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Ok, so just talking about odds of getting drafted and not draft position, I want to make sure I get this correct.

A #100 ranked junior that's "on the fence" is more likely to go than a #30 ranked sophomore that's "likely staying"?

But a #25 ranked sophomore that's also a "likely staying" would have more of a chance of getting drafted than the #30 ranked sophomore, that's listed as "likely staying"?

Or are all "likely stayings" have the same odds regardless of number position?

I don’t think they all have the same odds of leaving within the probability categories, I think guys at the very top have higher odds than guys at the low end of the category, but I can’t say for sure. And this is really important, a soph who is “likely staying” at #25 is very close to moving up to “on the fence”, and it is not a stretch to think he could move up to “likely going”, depending on where you are in the year. He only has to move a spot or two to be “on the fence”, and maybe 10 or so to get to “likely going”. So if you assume he will stay where he’s at on the final big board - which we never see, the last one that is published is not the one that the draft is based on - it’s true that the junior below him is much more likely to leave. That isn’t a safe assumption, however, unless you are very closely monitoring the soph’s development, as younger players generally have more room to grow, and are more likely to move up the board as the year goes on.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 10:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 10/29/2018 5:01:00 PM (view original):
The sophomore will get asked first, and will be drafted ahead, if the final, unpublished big board retains this order. But he will be less likely to say yes to the NBA this year. But if he moves up a spot or two, he’ll be on the fence, and if he rises to be projected as a lottery pick, he’ll be likely going.

Players with more years of eligibility need to be higher on the big board to move up the probability ladder.

You explained this in the coaches corner and still not getting it. I know you're trying to be helpful, but it's not making sense to me.

You said the "sophomore will get asked first , if the final, unpublished big board retains this order? What unpublished big board? But then you go on to say he will less likely to say yes to the NBA this year.

I understand about getting drafted ahead, but just more concerned whether he gets drafted or not.

I suspect the stumbling block for you is that the HD draft is based on a much different kind of logic than the real life draft. Players don’t declare, and then get drafted (or not) like they do in real life. The system essentially asks them if they’d like to be drafted, in order of the final big board, where they finish the year, which we never see (basically the final awards and postseason runs are never accounted for on the big board we see). A player says yes or no with probability assigned by his class and position on the board. So hypothetically, it would be something like this:

1) Jr - likely going, 95%
2) So - likely going, 92%
3) Sr - graduating, 100%
4) Jr - likely going, 93%
5) Jr - likely going, 92%
.
.
.
14) So - likely going, 82%
15) Jr - likely going, 86%
.
.
.
18) So - on the fence, 55%
19) Jr - likely going, 82%
.
.
.
24) So - on the fence, 50%
25) So - likely staying, 25%
26) Jr - likely going, 75%
.
.
.
I didn’t build the system, and it’s never been disclosed exactly how it works. But I’m confident this is fairly close to how it works.

From the data Benis has tracked and some additional data I've tracked, I haven't seen any evidence that the higher you are on the board, the more likely you are to go pro (with the exception that if you are near the bottom of the board and 60 guys higher than you get drafted, you don't go. In other words, there are no EEs who don't get drafted). It is possible that there is some slight difference, but if so, it is really small compared to what category you are in.

I have also seen no evidence that likelihood of going within a category varies by class. As shoe3 points out, what class you are in affects the likelihood that you fall into a particular category, but once you are in that category, your likelihood remains about the same, with likely going at about 87-90%, on the fence at about 40-45%, likely staying at about 10-13%, and staying at or near 0%.

The category a player is in can change throughout the course of a season. For juniors, if he is in the top 25 or so on the Big Board, you he is likely to be "likely going"; otherwise, he is likely to be "on the fence." For sophomores, if he is about a lottery pick, he is likely to be "likely going"; in the top 25 or so but not a lottery pick, he is likely to be "on the fence"; otherwise, he is likely to be "likely staying." I haven't seen enough very highly ranked freshmen to be sure, but I think they are the same as sophomores, except that if they aren't approximately top 25, they are "staying" instead of "likely staying." Note, that, if a player starts the season the big board in one of those positions, and then moves down the list, they appear to be more likely to keep that designation for awhile as they fall, and the opposite applies to those moving up (e.g., a junior player who starts the season as the 18th ranked player and drops to 27th by the end is more likely to be "likely going" than one who starts at 38 and moves up to 27).

The Big Board itself changes daily throughout the season, and continues to change all the way through the end of the NT. However, the final Big Board does not represent the exact order in which players are going to be "drafted" (I will call this the "Draft Order"). Only undergrads among the first top 60 players available to be drafted in any given year based on the Draft Order will declare. Obviously, all graduating seniors are treated as declaring, but, when deciding EEs, players only have the option of declaring if there aren't 60 players above them in the Draft Order who are either graduating or declaring. In other words, if the 100th ranked player on the Draft Order is "on the fence", his likelihood of declaring is 0% if there are 60 players higher than him who either graduate or declare. If there are fewer than 60, then his likelihood is about 40-45%. It's when there are fewer than 60 such players who are on the Big Board that allows for "off the board" EEs to occur.

Finally, the final "Big Board" does not represent the official Draft Order (unlike, for instance, the Projection Report). I believe, though I am not certain, that the primary difference between the final Big Board and the Draft Order is that the Draft Order incorporates any changes in the prestige of the teams associated with the players eligible for the draft, whereas the final Big Board only incorporates any within season game results (not overall prestige change). However, I also think it might be possible that there is either some small difference in the official Draft Order rankings vs. Big Board rankings, or some randomness associated with the order. I'm not sure though.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 11:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Ok, so just talking about odds of getting drafted and not draft position, I want to make sure I get this correct.

A #100 ranked junior that's "on the fence" is more likely to go than a #30 ranked sophomore that's "likely staying"?

But a #25 ranked sophomore that's also a "likely staying" would have more of a chance of getting drafted than the #30 ranked sophomore, that's listed as "likely staying"?

Or are all "likely stayings" have the same odds regardless of number position?

Here you go

There is definitely a big difference once you get past the 17ish spot for Jr's likely leaving.

Posted by Benis on 10/31/2018 7:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 11:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Ok, so just talking about odds of getting drafted and not draft position, I want to make sure I get this correct.

A #100 ranked junior that's "on the fence" is more likely to go than a #30 ranked sophomore that's "likely staying"?

But a #25 ranked sophomore that's also a "likely staying" would have more of a chance of getting drafted than the #30 ranked sophomore, that's listed as "likely staying"?

Or are all "likely stayings" have the same odds regardless of number position?

Here you go

There is definitely a big difference once you get past the 17ish spot for Jr's likely leaving.

This is good stuff! Thank you. This is exactly what I'm looking for.

The "likely going" junior that ended up staying from 1-5, I'm guessing that is the same guy that was the ineligible?

I don't have any statistical data to back this up, but felt there was a huge drop from guys leaving early into the NBA after Top 30.