Posted by Trentonjoe on 10/4/2019 1:35:00 PM (view original):
Wow, couple thoughts:
1. I pretty much NEVER go below -1 in press and -3 in man. I am to scared of foul trouble.
2. How do you ascertain if you are at risk for foul trouble, I usually just compare the ATH of the main scorers and the those player defenders. Is there a component I am missing?
1 - i am pretty foul adverse in press - but im also the most extreme case, because volatility gets more important the bigger your lead over the field is. for an average top 5 team its not even that bad, you kinda need to be in ridiculous territory. with a 12 deep press team who is favored over the field, i'll run a -3 against a team like this. maybe a -2 if im way better and assess a foul/fatigue death spiral as my only reasonable way of losing. if im like a 10 deep press team, im definitely way more adverse, then ill go -2 against a 03pta team but normally am bottoming out at -1.
2 - its primarily dependent on your team, not the opponent. the ath comparison isn't irrelevant but it almost is. its 98% about you. how is your team in terms of depth, both fatigue and depth chart wise? iq and ath are a factor - your iq and ath - for sure - but that is part of what you factor in. if you get in foul trouble, how screwed are you? if the answer is you are roughly average in terms of sensitivity to foul trouble, then you are fine to go run a -. its when you are particularly sensitive to it, say running an 8 deep man, or a 10 deep press, or a 12 deep press as a big favorite - then you really cut back. in terms of the opponent, i dont even look at their ath - even though it does matter some. rather, i just look at their approach. if they are a normal team, im not worried. if its mfnmeyers drawing insane fouls and they are a foul-oriented team, which you do encounter some in the wild even outside mfnmeyers's extreme version of it, then i usually back off about 1 from where i would be on the negative scale. 2 if im sensitive to fouling, maybe even 3 if im super sensitive to it.