Anyone noticed that you lose players a lot more than before? I had an email from a player, adjusted and fulfilled my promises. I got the guy to be a back-up during the CT and benched him during the NT. He lost 1WE during the season yet he walks!!!

wow. had not seen that before

Posted by zorzii on 11/13/2019 8:20:00 AM (view original):
Anyone noticed that you lose players a lot more than before? I had an email from a player, adjusted and fulfilled my promises. I got the guy to be a back-up during the CT and benched him during the NT. He lost 1WE during the season yet he walks!!!

You aren’t safe until you get an email from the player telling you he’s happy again. That’s always been the case.

Posted by darnoc29099 on 11/13/2019 8:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/13/2019 8:20:00 AM (view original):
Anyone noticed that you lose players a lot more than before? I had an email from a player, adjusted and fulfilled my promises. I got the guy to be a back-up during the CT and benched him during the NT. He lost 1WE during the season yet he walks!!!

You aren’t safe until you get an email from the player telling you he’s happy again. That’s always been the case.

i don't agree on that last bit, before the changes i had numerous guys stay without that happy message and never had anyone leave meeting the 80% limit.

i also don't agree that is necessarily how it is now - at least not in d3 - not sure if they are more generous in d3?

i don't have a ton of experience with 'new promises', so i'm not sure how exactly it works - however, i used a d3 practice team to push the limit. took two guys, promised start + 25m, played them 0 games and 0m until they complained, plus 2 extra games for good measure. this was 12 games for the one guy and i forgot the other, 2 more or less (so 10 or 14). this essentially made it absolutely impossible to come close to meeting the promise, but both guys stayed - despite their only follow up contact being more complaining.

i guess i've yet to see evidence that one of the old rules doesn't still apply - if a guy complains, and you 100% meet the promise the rest of the way, he can't quit. i think that was a hard-and-fast rule in the old game, and the reason im so confident is i routinely forgot to do anything until 6-10 games in and would have lost a catastrophic number of players if it didn't work that way.

new game? i certainly cannot speak to it definitively, but in general i would posture it is still the case - when he complains, meet the complaint head on, guarantee you meet him the rest of the way (all the way). keep in mind listed stats *are not perfect*. foul out games and certain injury cases do not count. this means your 33m played in an OT game before fouling out does not count and you must adjust for this if you want to keep the guy.

that said, i would not at all be shocked if im wrong about how it works today - especially considering i can't even formulate a full opinion of how it works in the new game. like i said, i have little experience - but in d3 i tested it enough to say its definitely not as harsh as its being painted on these forums in general, down in d3 at least. i HAVE heard anecdotal evidence that sounds pretty sketchy, in terms of how close folks came and players still quitting, that makes me question my default assumptions (which are largely based on the old game and seble's description of the change, but its been years and that is all rusty too). but, without details, its hard to make much of it.

i think we should work as a forum community to nail it down, but that means people need to be posting the full data set. that includes the player's game log, any injury and promise information, and precise times and messages for the complaints. i think it only would take maybe 2-4 of those cases to nail it down, when folks see these really borderline cases, those are the ones we need to look at - so if folks reading this have one, or see it in their CC, getting the info would be pretty helpful. zorzii, would you mind posting that info or might it be too late?

quick aside - forum fact has always been something like post season doesn't matter - that's probably false - its that after the 2nd CT game, if you have no complaint, you can't get one. it has never been established (at least to my satisfaction) that the post season games can't be used to recover, and some cases have strongly suggested the opposite. to be safe, i would NOT bench for the post season unless you never had a complaint.

i guess i've yet to see evidence that the old rule doesn't still apply - if a guy complains, and you 100% meet the promise the rest of the way, he can't quit. i think that was a hard-and-fast rule in the old game, and the reason im so confident is i routinely forgot to do anything until 6-10 games in and would have lost a catastrophic number of players if it didn't work that way.

I actually picked up a JUCO2 with my Fresno St. team, he complained about lack of promised starts, got a second complaint about halfway through the season. However, met his needs the rest of the way, yet he still left. Started him the last 13 games.

It could be a percentage thing, just like your GPA or getting drafted early, whether he leaves. The old game had player's with "different personalities", so that could be playing a part as well.

I can tell you the 80% rule of promised minutes and starts no longer applies.

"foul out games and certain injury cases do not count. this means your 33m played in an OT game before fouling out does not count"

What!! Really??

Posted by Benis on 11/13/2019 11:12:00 AM (view original):
"foul out games and certain injury cases do not count. this means your 33m played in an OT game before fouling out does not count"

What!! Really??

absolutely, or at least it absolutely used to be true. i think this is part of why folks are losing players thinking they barely met promises - not that it no longer holds that if you meet the promise, you are straight.

Posted by thewizard17 on 11/13/2019 10:48:00 AM (view original):
i guess i've yet to see evidence that the old rule doesn't still apply - if a guy complains, and you 100% meet the promise the rest of the way, he can't quit. i think that was a hard-and-fast rule in the old game, and the reason im so confident is i routinely forgot to do anything until 6-10 games in and would have lost a catastrophic number of players if it didn't work that way.

I actually picked up a JUCO2 with my Fresno St. team, he complained about lack of promised starts, got a second complaint about halfway through the season. However, met his needs the rest of the way, yet he still left. Started him the last 13 games.

It could be a percentage thing, just like your GPA or getting drafted early, whether he leaves. The old game had player's with "different personalities", so that could be playing a part as well.

I can tell you the 80% rule of promised minutes and starts no longer applies.

without question, the 80% rule no longer applies. 80% works for some players, not for others. 90% seems to work for all of mine but i might be getting lucky. im pretty sure its a random, hidden personality trait (like old style draft preference), not like EEs are today or GPA - but definitely could be wrong.

any chance you have the info on your fresno guy? are you saying, you met his needs the rest of the way, from the 2nd complaint - or from the first? its definitely necessary to meet from the first, IMO. i actually think its still a % - like, if a guy complains with less than 90% - you only need 90% after the first complaint - but that is based on more or less nothing (just intuition about what is easy and how i interpreted seble's comments on the change way back when). so i am not nearly confident enough to recommend that to others.

the position i'm pushing is this - i believe, if you 100% meet the promise (meaning on average, not every game - for minutes - but 100% starts), from the moment of the first complaint on, then you are fine - no matter what happened before the first complaint. i'd REALLY like to see someone come with a counter example, because my money is its more stuff folks aren't aware of (like foul out games not counting) than the rule not holding. or could be a bug maybe. or the rule could just not hold anymore, but my understanding is that nothing changed in that regard whenever it was seble changed the 80% rule.

Posted by gillispie1 on 11/13/2019 11:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 11/13/2019 11:12:00 AM (view original):
"foul out games and certain injury cases do not count. this means your 33m played in an OT game before fouling out does not count"

What!! Really??

absolutely, or at least it absolutely used to be true. i think this is part of why folks are losing players thinking they barely met promises - not that it no longer holds that if you meet the promise, you are straight.

I'm trying to understand what you mean by doesn't count.

So if a guy plays 2 games. 1st game 10 minutes doesn't foul out. 2nd game 20 minutes but does foul out. What is his avg min played? Is it 15min or 10 min?

Posted by Benis on 11/13/2019 12:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 11/13/2019 11:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 11/13/2019 11:12:00 AM (view original):
"foul out games and certain injury cases do not count. this means your 33m played in an OT game before fouling out does not count"

What!! Really??

absolutely, or at least it absolutely used to be true. i think this is part of why folks are losing players thinking they barely met promises - not that it no longer holds that if you meet the promise, you are straight.

I'm trying to understand what you mean by doesn't count.

So if a guy plays 2 games. 1st game 10 minutes doesn't foul out. 2nd game 20 minutes but does foul out. What is his avg min played? Is it 15min or 10 min?

its 10. the entire game is discounted, like it never got played. at least, that is how it was explained by seble - i never specifically went in and tried to get a guy who would be safe with the OT game and wasn't safe without, or whatever.

however, when seble came and explained it, it was because someone specifically complained about losing a guy that, according to the rules as we understood them, he should not have lost. seble came in and explained that the rule was in place really for our benefit - if a guy fouls out in 5m twice in a season - it could be real hard to meet than 25m. however, in practice, it is not uncommon for players to foul out with many minutes, especially in OT and 2OT games, where it actually ends up working against you. that is what had happened to the guy who lost the player.

im fuzzy on the details, but ill share the story just in case anyone is interested. i think the guy in question was a backup, who basically had started like a half dozen easy games to rack up minutes and barely met the 80%. but in like 2 of those starts he fouled out and because he played such a high % of his total minutes in those half dozen or so games, it really affected his total and brought him down under 80% actually rather significantly. i think it was only like a 15m promise or something, maybe even 10. i believe we talked about minutes but that the rule applied to starts as well. im fuzzy on the details but the takeaway was clear and the math was all in order (the guy was over 80% by listed stats, but under when you took out foul games).

Well I'll be damned.

Anyways, maybe it's a % thing and I just was on the right side of the probabilities until the last three times. And I realized it won't work according to what I read about fulfilling promises. It's part of the game. I will be more cautious.

Posted by zorzii on 11/13/2019 1:51:00 PM (view original):
Anyways, maybe it's a % thing and I just was on the right side of the probabilities until the last three times. And I realized it won't work according to what I read about fulfilling promises. It's part of the game. I will be more cautious.

do you have the data?

Gil-I'll rephrase my earlier comment. Getting an email from the player saying he's happy again is the only way to be certain your guy won't transfer. They can even have WE gains over the course of the season and still transfer.

Also, the 80% thing is just a general rule of thumb. In 2.0, I had a guy transfer after starting 25/26 games (I didn't make a minutes promise, he transferred because of the starts). Every player has some built in threshold for what they're willing to accept/not accept and there's no way to know what that threshold is.

i think that is fair darnoc, at least today - its reasonable for coaches to operate under the assumption that they are possibly losing the guy, unless they have never had a complaint, or got a 'safe' email after a complaint. i would join you in recommending that stance to others - at least until we have better evidence around the theory that 100% meeting the promise from time of complaint is guaranteed safe (i believe that's true and operate under that belief, but i am not confident enough to tell others its for-sure safe).

i don't so much agree about the past, i am pretty sure the promises change was during 2.0, not for 3.0 - or more accurately, it changed in 2.0 (when 80% change happened) and changed more in 3.0 (especially around recruiting), and i think that is part of the confusion (your 25/26 came after the first change, but before 3.0, in my thinking). but, i also don't think it matters that much how it worked 5 years ago, so happy to let that go!