Another "who would you prefer?" - D3 guards Topic

D3, 1 or 2 guard - these are backup options, neither of whom I am likely to sign but I'm curious about the group's thoughts -- I'm thinking most of you will lean player B but is there anyone who would take player A with the substantial advantage in BH and PASS?

Projected ratings by senior year:
Player A Player B
ATH 30 40
SPD 80 84
REB 1 32
DEF 25 33
BLK 10 14
LP 7 40
PER 84 80
BH 96 75
PASS 74 60
WE 70 70
ST 84 87
DU 48 58
FT C+ C
5/9/2020 5:25 PM
Consider them guys if I don't want to recruit heavy. However I recruit way too may mid level div 2 guys for that too be possible. When I move to the nicer spot I think it will only bumped me up by standard and rep of school. Those look like Rec league superstars.
5/9/2020 5:51 PM
for a backup option, i am probably squarely in the player 1 camp. i like my backup options to be versatile - they almost have to be, they need to be the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle - and while i am not intimately familiar with what d3 teams look like right now, im guessing in terms of pgness, if you will, player a is exceptional for a backup while player b is just solid. you could argue player B could slide right (into the SF spot) but i really hate putting such spd-heavy defenders at the 3.

the lp does draw it into question a bit but i personally basically am just writing that off. if you have all 3 pt scoring i could see wanting B i guess, but generally speaking, player a looks like an elite 3 pt scorer even as a starter, and i see no need to add LP to what would effectively be a championship caliber +2 3pt setting backup scorer.

i think the first player gives you two clear strengths to run off of (the ideal bedrock requirement for those seeking titles), his bh/pass and his scoring, while the second does not (offense only), and between that and the enhanced versatility of #1, i am definitely a vote for #1.
5/9/2020 6:43 PM
A. If a guy is only going to be able to score he might as well do it elite-ly.
5/9/2020 9:27 PM
Posted by cubcub113 on 5/9/2020 9:27:00 PM (view original):
A. If a guy is only going to be able to score he might as well do it elite-ly.
its nice to be on the same page every once in a while =D
5/9/2020 9:45 PM
I prefer Player A.
5/9/2020 10:12 PM
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
5/9/2020 10:19 PM
Posted by darnoc29099 on 5/9/2020 10:19:00 PM (view original):
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
I value 40 LP in guards a lot, but with 40 Ath he will not be able to score. I would not look to recruit either of these guys, but I’d say A over B.
5/10/2020 12:38 AM
Posted by darnoc29099 on 5/9/2020 10:19:00 PM (view original):
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
in general i mean, i agree with your sentiment. 40 lp for a guard in d3, hell even in d1, it has a *very* material impact on 2pt%

however, starting with a guy who i'd really want to play as a +2, who is going to take a ridiculously high % of his shots from behind the arc, at a ridiculous efficiency (those ratings as a backup? look out!) - i almost don't *want* the lp, even for free. its going to help the 2pt % some, but its also going to move 3pta to 2pta, and there is just no possible way to replace ultra efficient 3s with efficient 2s and not take a substantial hit. i think this hit offsets, or even more than offsets, the 2pt% increase. it is situational though - if you have tons of other 3pt shooting, i'd rather have the lp guy offensively (still probably prefer A for his additional pg-ness). but if i am hungry for 3pt shooting, i would definitely decline that lp - even if it was free!
5/10/2020 12:43 AM
Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/10/2020 12:38:00 AM (view original):
Posted by darnoc29099 on 5/9/2020 10:19:00 PM (view original):
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
I value 40 LP in guards a lot, but with 40 Ath he will not be able to score. I would not look to recruit either of these guys, but I’d say A over B.
Of course he’ll be able to score. He won’t be a super efficient but 40/40 is enough tomacore against sims and low level humans. Ath/lp is opposed by ath/blk, you don’t see a lot of pgs with high blk scores, that’s why you don’t need so much lp.

I agree with billy in the sense you don’t want him shooting twos but he’d still be good at it.
5/10/2020 6:41 AM
B.
5/10/2020 7:47 AM
Posted by gillispie1 on 5/9/2020 9:45:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubcub113 on 5/9/2020 9:27:00 PM (view original):
A. If a guy is only going to be able to score he might as well do it elite-ly.
its nice to be on the same page every once in a while =D
Man whenever we aren't on the same page it means I have something to learn ;)
5/10/2020 1:22 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/10/2020 6:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/10/2020 12:38:00 AM (view original):
Posted by darnoc29099 on 5/9/2020 10:19:00 PM (view original):
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
I value 40 LP in guards a lot, but with 40 Ath he will not be able to score. I would not look to recruit either of these guys, but I’d say A over B.
Of course he’ll be able to score. He won’t be a super efficient but 40/40 is enough tomacore against sims and low level humans. Ath/lp is opposed by ath/blk, you don’t see a lot of pgs with high blk scores, that’s why you don’t need so much lp.

I agree with billy in the sense you don’t want him shooting twos but he’d still be good at it.
I meant he won't be able to drive, not won't be able to score. I don't want a 40 Ath driving on a 60 Ath.
5/10/2020 5:47 PM
Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/10/2020 5:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/10/2020 6:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Sportsbulls on 5/10/2020 12:38:00 AM (view original):
Posted by darnoc29099 on 5/9/2020 10:19:00 PM (view original):
B. At D3 I value that 40 LP for a guard quite a bit.
I value 40 LP in guards a lot, but with 40 Ath he will not be able to score. I would not look to recruit either of these guys, but I’d say A over B.
Of course he’ll be able to score. He won’t be a super efficient but 40/40 is enough tomacore against sims and low level humans. Ath/lp is opposed by ath/blk, you don’t see a lot of pgs with high blk scores, that’s why you don’t need so much lp.

I agree with billy in the sense you don’t want him shooting twos but he’d still be good at it.
I meant he won't be able to drive, not won't be able to score. I don't want a 40 Ath driving on a 60 Ath.
i would strongly encourage you NOT to think of things this way. 40 ath, 60 ath - who cares? that means nothing. at no point in this game is one players ath directly compared to the ath of the player on the other team.

to think about this game in a way that is simpler, cleaner, and more in line with how the sim engine actually works - you need to consider abilities. the entire game works off of aggregates and those aggregates are things we can relate to a *lot* more easily than we can think 'when the original guy made this 20 years ago, who has been gone for 10 years and never really explained his thinking on countless topics, i wonder what he really meant by ath, or by spd, and how those are distinct from each other and def and everything else'. an example ability is 2pt scoring ability. this is an aggregate based primarily on one individual's ath, spd, lp, per, bh, pass, ft, off iq, sta, with the caveat that the position a player is playing VERY much changes that aggregate. this isn't exactly what the game uses, but its roughly what we as players should be considering in evaluating 2pt scoring. (quick note - by and large, abilities and aggregates are about the same thing - but i try to use ability to refer to how we would look at something, which is a simplified version of the aggregates used in the sim engine - generally, my goal is to take a number of related aggregates used by the sim engine, and lump them into abilities, so that the game is more digestible for myself and others).

ideally, you are looking at that player B and thinking, how is his 2pt scoring ability? now granted, none of us will exactly agree which of those ratings have which weightings, especially when there are really 5 answers (for 5 positions), not 1 (although, like, the 1 and 2 are pretty damn similar, so maybe its 3-4 answers, but still).

that said, for a d3 guy, with that slate of ratings, i think any reasonable weighting of the above factors will lead to the conclusion that 'this guy can score pretty well'. his lp+per are awesome, hes got very good bh/spd, and sure his ath isn't great but this is d3 we are talking about, this guy could score competently in low d1.

same goes on the defense side - the defender across from him is compared to him using a defensive aggregate (assuming this is m2m) based primary off def, ath, spd, def iq, sta, and depending on the position, blk (so probably not, given this guy is likely playing the 2).

of course, when that offensive player goes to take the shot against the defensive player, the situation is bigger than comparing their two aggregates. stuff like the pg's passing, the +/- of the defense, and a whole host of other factors are part of the equation. however, in straight man, the comparison of that offensive aggregate and defensive aggregate does tell most of the story. yet even in just the off player vs defensive player comparison, its way more complex than comparing aths or spds.

if you want to break things down a little further, the 2pt scoring aggregate i talk about is a simplification. there are clearly at least 4 different things at play (and therefore, at least 4 actual aggregates used by the sim engine itself), and very possibly more. taking the 2pt shot is just one part, but there's also drawing fouls, ft shooting, and turning the ball over. we tend to focus on 2pt shooting as (lp, per, ath, spd, bh, iq) and that is more the aggregate that is actually compared to the defense aggregate. its also possible the 2pt shooting itself is broken down into how good of a look are you getting and then the actual shot taking, with ath/spd/iq and things like teammates pass/iq and the quality of the defense smashing together to get a range on the shot that follows, which would then mostly turn on lp/per on the offensive side?

anyway, nobody exactly knows, and if you subscribe to the 'getting open looks' as its own aggregate in the sim engine, you could see something close to an ath vs ath or spd vs spd comparison that so many folks talk about, but in reality, the minimum aggregates there for players at the 2 is probably something like (ath, spd, bh, iq) on the offensive side and (ath, spd, def, iq) on the defensive side. so its still not a straight comparison anywhere. also note - this is assuming man - for zone and press its even more muddled, and you are going to play all kinds of defenses, you can't just play man teams. for this reason, and because my experience states that doing so is a horrible idea, i recommend everyone work to avoid comparing single ratings in the fashion in your post.

think abilities, not ratings!
5/10/2020 6:17 PM (edited)
I think what you said could be summed up very quickly. Of course he can score (arguing that is not arguing against yourself, I know he can score), but do you want this guy driving on this guy or shooting threes? And think abilities, not ratings? Don't get me wrong, I love your posts, but I just think a lot of the stuff you're arguing here is a given.

I had a similar player with low Athleticism and great driving ability, Brian Lockridge (of course small sample size but he represents my points). His LP and other skills simply did not make up for a large athleticism disparity against PGs with very high athleticism, and he would become more valuable as a shooter. Against players with similar athleticism, I would increase his distribution and he was successful. Of course you can't look at driving ability in just athleticism, but if you do not think that athleticism weighs a lot in deciding how successful someone will be in driving on another player, I don't think we will see eye to eye on this.
5/10/2020 7:46 PM
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